Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation?

Dessai, Suraje; Hulme, Mike; Lempert, Robert J.; Pielke, Roger A.

doi:10.1017/cbo9780511596667.006

Cited by 175 publications

(139 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Despite this uncertainty, water resource management will still require quantitative predictions or assessments of plausible futures to assist in decision-making. While it may never be feasible to make predictive 100 yr time series predictions of hydrologic response under these conditions, improving short timescale predictions will be essential for evaluation, adaptation and ongoing water resources management (Dessai et al, 2009;Lindenmayer and Likens, 2009;Tanaka et al, 2006). Quantifying and constraining the uncertainty in these predictions provides a feasible, yet still challenging goal.…”

Section: Challenge 3: Uncertainty Predictability and Observations Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

Thompson

Sivapalan

Harman

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

129

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Abstract.Globally, many different kinds of water resources management issues call for policy-and infrastructure-based responses. Yet responsible decision-making about water resources management raises a fundamental challenge for hydrologists: making predictions about water resources on decadal-to century-long timescales. Obtaining insight into hydrologic futures over 100 yr timescales forces researchers to address internal and exogenous changes in the properties of hydrologic systems. To do this, new hydrologic research must identify, describe and model feedbacks between water and other changing, coupled environmental subsystems. These models must be constrained to yield useful insights, despite the many likely sources of uncertainty in their predictions. Chief among these uncertainties are the impacts of the increasing role of human intervention in the global water cycle -a defining challenge for hydrology in the Anthropocene. Here we present a research agenda that proposes a suite of strategies to address these challenges from the perspectives of hydrologic science research. The research agenda focuses on the development of co-evolutionary hydrologic modeling to explore coupling across systems, and to address the implications of this coupling on the long-time behavior of the coupled systems. Three research directions support the development of these models: hydrologic reconstruction, comparative hydrology and model-data learning. These strategies focus on understanding hydrologic processes and feedbacks over long timescales, across many locations, and through strategic coupling of observational and model data in specific systems. We highlight the value of use-inspired and team-based science that is motivated by real-world hydrologic problems but targets improvements in fundamental understanding to support decision-making and management. Fully realizing the potential of this approach will ultimately require detailed integration of social science and physical science understanding of water systems, and is a priority for the developing field of sociohydrology.

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Section: Challenge 3: Uncertainty Predictability and Observations Ofmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

Thompson

Sivapalan

Harman

et al. 2013

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

129

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Yet, the emphasis in climate science continues to be on greater precision rather than on better characterization of uncertainty [10]. Either causing this emphasis or in response to it, many decision-makers perceive the need to know more exactly what is going to happen in the future.…”

Section: Uncertainty and Current Issues In Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The likely persistence of uncertainty requires a change in decision-making style for some classes of decisions-primarily those with longer lifetimes-and possibly a reframing of the problem away from being driven by climate science at all. Robust decision-making approaches, as outlined in Dessai et al [10], identify decisions that are robust across the range of future possibilities, even if they are not precisely optimal for any and as a consequence may be more costly to implement [23]. Scenario-based visioning of the future can encompass drivers of future sustainability, which are far more diverse than climate alone, such as those used in the Millennium Assessment [24].…”

Section: Uncertainty and Current Issues In Adaptationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rethinking adaptation for a 4 ^° C world

Smith

Horrocks

Harvey

et al. 2011

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

304

155

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With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4 • C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4 • C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2 • C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making.The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.

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“…Fully quantifying uncertainties at each stage is likely to lead to the characteristic 'explosion' of uncertainty (Carter et al 2007). A number of previous studies have suggested a 'policy-first' approach, where the quantitative analysis is designed from the bottom-up to evaluate the desirability of specific adaptation options against a set of defined objectives, as an alternative to help to narrow uncertainties in the analysis (Dessai et al 2009). Recognising the scale of the uncertainties, such a process can utilise methods such as robust decision-making to design strategies that are flexible under a range of climate scenarios (Lempert and Collins, 2007;Hallegatte, 2009).…”

Section: Discussion: Adaptation Planning and Uncertaintymentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Risks, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Benefits in Mumbai

2010

OECD Environment Working Papers

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Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation?

Cited by 175 publications

References 29 publications

Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

Rethinking adaptation for a 4 ^° C world

Flood Risks, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Benefits in Mumbai

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Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation?

Cited by 175 publications

References 29 publications

Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

Developing predictive insight into changing water systems: use-inspired hydrologic science for the Anthropocene

Rethinking adaptation for a 4 ° C world

Flood Risks, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Benefits in Mumbai

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Rethinking adaptation for a 4 ^° C world