Climate of doubt: A re-evaluation of Büntgen and Di Cosmo’s environmental hypothesis for the Mongol withdrawal from Hungary, 1242 CE

Abstract

In their recent article published in the journal Scientific Reports, Büntgen and Di Cosmo have attempted to solve the historical mystery of the sudden Mongol withdrawal from Hungary after a year-long occupation. We cannot share the authors’ viewpoint that environmental circumstances contributed to the decision of the Mongols to abandon Hungary since the hypothesis lacks support from environmental, archaeological and historical evidence. Historical source material in particular suggests that the Mongols were able to settle and sustain their herds in Hungary as is clearly stated in a letter by King Bela IV to the pope. The Mongol army arrived in the kingdom at the end of a severe drought, and we present empirical evidence that the abundant rain in the spring of 1242 CE did not worsen but rather improved their prospects for sufficient food supplies and pasturage. The marshy terrain of the Hungarian Plain likely did not precipitate the Mongol withdrawal as the Mongol high command ultimately stationed their main forces around the marshy Volga Delta. In contrast to what Büntgen and Di Cosmo have suggested, we argue that the reasons for the sudden withdrawal cannot be explained largely by environmental factors.

Socio-Environmental Dynamics along the Historical Silk Road

“…Scholars in Hungary from a variety of disciplines, including archaeology and landscape ecology, raised questions regarding the environmental hypothesis, stemming from paleoclimatic, archaeological, and historical evidence of the invasion, and we collaborated on a response (Pinke et al 2017b). Büntgen and Di Cosmo's investigation of the relationship between reconstructed weather patterns and documentary evidence was justified; climate exerted important effects on steppe-based societies and polities.…”

Climatic and Environmental Limiting Factors in the Mongol Empire’s Westward Expansion: Exploring Causes for the Mongol Withdrawal from Hungary in 1242

“…Nonetheless, he compared the weather's role in Batu's campaign in Hungary with the Russian winter's effect on Napoleon's disastrous campaign in 1812, asserting that to ignore it is "like saying the winter in Russia had no effect on Napoleon's army" (Gearin 2016). Scholars in Hungary from a variety of disciplines, including archaeology and landscape ecology, raised questions regarding the environmental hypothesis, stemming from paleoclimatic, archaeological, and historical evidence of the invasion, and we collaborated on a response (Pinke et al 2017b). Büntgen and Di Cosmo's investigation of the relationship between reconstructed weather patterns and documentary evidence was justified; climate exerted important effects on steppe-based societies and polities.…”

“…The first is that the Carpathian Basin, the region in which the Kingdom of Hungary was established, is widely recognized as the westernmost extension of the long Eurasian steppe belt, stretching like a highway all the way from Mongolia in the east. Indeed, the steppe did see the rapid movement and migration of nomadic or semi-nomadic peoples along this highway, and Hungary's history before the Mongol invasion attests to no shortage of peoples such as the Huns, Avars, Pechenegs, and eventually the Magyars themselves who arrived in the ninth century and established their state in the Carpathian Basin (Pinke et al 2017b). As such, many groups of steppic origins had viewed the area as a suitable base to migrate, raise their herds, and wage wars of conquest or simple plundering on surrounding states.…”

“…A comparative look at texts from different times and regions should lead us to the conclusion that the famine that unfolded was intentionally brought about by the invaders. As for the Mongols' animals and their pasturage needs, the carrying capacity of the Great Hungarian Plain allowed for millions of animals, even during the Little Ice Age of the Early Modern era (Pinke et al 2017b), so it is difficult to imagine that even a large Mongol army would have faced a crisis with pasturage owing to shortterm climate fluctuations. Büntgen and Di Cosmo did not always clearly distinguish if the food crisis was one afflicting the animals of the Mongol occupiers or simply one affecting the agrarian-based populace of Hungary.…”