Climate change will increase the potential conflict between skiing and high‐elevation bird species in the Alps

Abstract

Aim To assess the extent of the possible future conflict between skiing and biodiversity driven by climate change, human adaptation and species' distribution shifts. Location Italian Alps. Methods We assessed the extent of the possible future conflict between skiing and biodiversity by predicting locations likely to be suitable for both skiing and for high‐elevation birds in the Italian Alps by modelling ski‐piste and species presence in relation to climate, topography and habitat. Potential conflict was assessed by comparing the overlap of areas projected as suitable for skiing and those suitable for four high‐elevation bird species under different scenarios of climate change for the year 2050. Results Areas suitable for both ski‐pistes and birds were projected to contract towards upper elevations, which for birds resulted in an average decrease of 58–67% of suitable area. The degree of overlap between species and skiing was projected to increase, especially for the most valuable sites, that is, those hosting the most species, or the most threatened species. Main conclusions Given the alarming range contractions forecast for high‐elevation species, and the potential impact of ski‐pistes on those species, it is essential to safeguard high‐mountain grasslands against negative effects of ski development. An effective conservation strategy at a landscape scale needs to consider prevention of ski‐piste construction in sites of high conservation value. The approach developed here provides a means by which such a strategy could be formulated, and which could be potentially applied elsewhere to investigate the effect of human adaptation on biodiversity.

A spatially explicit definition of conservation priorities according to population resistance and resilience, species importance and level of threat in a changing climate

“…Owl data were collected using nocturnal and crepuscular playback techniques (broadcast male song) during the breeding season (Brambilla, Bergero, Bassi, & Falco, ). Full details of these datasets are given in the relevant references (Chamberlain et al., ; Chamberlain, Brambilla, Caprio, Pedrini, & Rolando, ; Brambilla et al., ; Brambilla et al., ) and in Appendix . The majority of survey points were carried out in locations selected so as to be broadly representative of at least one (e.g., Brambilla et al., ) or both (e.g., Brambilla & Pedrini, ; Chamberlain, Brambilla et al., ) montane and Alpine and vegetation belts (sensu Körner, ), and there was no focus on, for example, protected areas or habitats subject to specific environmental pressures (e.g., skiing activities, urbanization, changes in livestock management).…”

“…For (subalpine) forest habitats, we chose pygmy owl ( Glaucidium passerinum ) and boreal owl ( Aegolius funereus ), two nocturnal raptors known to be affected by climate, for which the Alps represent a relict portion of their former range in a colder past (Brambilla et al., ). For open habitats, we selected rock ptarmigan ( Lagopus muta ), water pipit ( Anthus spinoletta ) and white‐winged snowfinch (henceforth snowfinch; Montifringilla nivalis ), all species likely to be impacted by climate change (Brambilla et al, ; Brambilla, Cortesi et al., ; Chamberlain et al., ; Pernollet, Korner‐Nievergelt, & Jenni, ; Revermann, Schmid, Zbinden, Spaar, & Schröder, ) and occupying high‐elevation habitats. For transitional habitats (around the tree line, where forest and grassland intergrade), black grouse ( Tetrao tetrix ) was chosen according to its preference for edge habitats and cold climates (Braunisch, Patthey, & Arlettaz, ; Loneux & Lindsey, ; Ludwig et al., ; Spidsø, Hjeljord, & Dokk, ).…”

Behavioural responses to human disturbance in an alpine bird

“…Mountain areas are subject to a range of pressures, including climate change and alterations in land use, driving forces which are often linked to human activities, such as the abandonment of traditional pastoral practices (Probo et al 2014;Bazzi et al 2015;Jähnig et al 2018). Climate warming is likely to push ski developments to higher elevations where snow conditions are more reliable, thus increasing pressure on high-elevation species (Brambilla et al 2016). Indeed, the building of infrastructures related to winter sports has led to negative effects that act on a variety of taxa (Rixen and Rolando 2013) and restoration actions to re-establish previous communities have been at best only partially successful (Rixen and Rolando 2013;Caprio et al 2016).…”

Avian SDMs: current state, challenges, and opportunities

“…Other studies have assessed the impacts of habitat change (Brambilla et al 2010) -also involving climate change (Chamberlain et al 2013) on populations. Moreover, recent SDM applications assessed possible threats to biodiversity posed by mitigation actions against climate change (Wetzel et al 2012 for mammals;Brambilla et al 2016 for birds), an essential, yet often neglected topic (Turner et al 2010). Such studies have already contributed to the identification of the main sites for species conservation in a changing world, but should be further refined, for example by integrating species-specific physiological constraints (Methorst et al 2017) to make SDMs even more valuable tools for conservation planning.…”