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Aim: Human-induced climate change requires conservation strategies incorporating its potential effects on species and communities. Key components of population persistence can be attributed to resistance (the capacity to remain unaffected) or resilience (capacity to absorb and recover) to climate change. In situ climatic refugia can act as resistant distribution units, and ex situ climatic refugia and the corridors to reach them may enhance resilience. We develop a novel approach selecting conservation priorities, resistant units and resilient areas according to structural connectivity and future distribution, to identify strategies that maximize the chances of species persistence in a changing climate. Location: Italian Alps.Methods: Conservation priorities were defined across species according to the regional conservation status and the level of threat from climate change, and across sites according to their suitability for target species and their related potential for population persistence (in situ climatic refugia, i.e., resistant units) or redistribution (ex situ climatic refugia and main corridors according to current and future connectivity, i.e., resilient units).Results: Models suggested a marked loss of suitable area for all species by 2050 (ranging from ~50% for pygmy owl and water pipit, to 84% for snowfinch in the worst scenario), and a general loss of connectivity, which was particularly marked for pygmy owl and snowfinch. The approach applied to Alpine birds of different habitats led to a spatially explicit definition of conservation priorities. Main conclusions:The spatial definition of conservation priorities according to species (regional importance and level of threat), resistance and resilience refines the definition of management/conservation priorities (including protected area definition), complementing the existing approaches to address climate change-induced threats in planning conservation and ecological networks. K E Y W O R D SAlps, birds, distribution, ecological connectivity, global warming, spatial planning

The Odonata are considered among the most endangered freshwater faunal taxa. Their DNA‐based monitoring relies on validated reference data sets that are often lacking or do not cover important biogeographical centres of diversification. This study presents the results of a DNA barcoding campaign on Odonata, based on the standard 658‐bp 5′ end region of the mitochondrial COI gene, involving the collection of 812 specimens (409 of which barcoded) from peninsular Italy and its main islands (328 localities), belonging to all the 88 species (31 Zygoptera and 57 Anisoptera) known from the country. Additional BOLD and GenBank data from Holarctic samples expanded the data set to 1,294 DNA barcodes. A multi‐approach species delimitation analysis involving two distance (OT and ABGD) and four tree‐based (PTP, MPTP, GMYC and bGMYC) methods was used to explore these data. Of the 88 investigated morphospecies, 75 (85%) unequivocally corresponded to distinct molecular operational units, whereas the remaining ones were classified as ‘warnings’ (i.e. showing a mismatch between morphospecies assignment and DNA‐based species delimitation). These results are in contrast with other DNA barcoding studies on Odonata showing up to 95% of identification success. The species causing warnings were grouped into three categories depending on if they showed low, high or mixed genetic divergence patterns. The analysis of haplotype networks revealed unexpected intraspecific complexity at the Italian, Palearctic and Holarctic scale, possibly indicating the occurrence of cryptic species. Overall, this study provides new insights into the taxonomy of odonates and a valuable basis for future DNA and eDNA‐based monitoring studies.

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Interspecific interactions are crucial in determining species occurrence and community assembly. Understanding these interactions is thus essential for correctly predicting species' responses to climate change. We focussed on an avian forest guild of four hole‐nesting species with differing sensitivities to climate that show a range of well‐understood reciprocal interactions, including facilitation, competition and predation. We modelled the potential distributions of black woodpecker and boreal, tawny and Ural owl, and tested whether the spatial patterns of the more widespread species (excluding Ural owl) were shaped by interspecific interactions. We then modelled the potential future distributions of all four species, evaluating how the predicted changes will alter the overlap between the species' ranges, and hence the spatial outcomes of interactions. Forest cover/type and climate were important determinants of habitat suitability for all species. Field data analysed with N‐mixture models revealed effects of interspecific interactions on current species abundance, especially in boreal owl (positive effects of black woodpecker, negative effects of tawny owl). Climate change will impact the assemblage both at species and guild levels, as the potential area of range overlap, relevant for species interactions, will change in both proportion and extent in the future. Boreal owl, the most climate‐sensitive species in the guild, will retreat, and the range overlap with its main predator, tawny owl, will increase in the remaining suitable area: climate change will thus impact on boreal owl both directly and indirectly. Climate change will cause the geographical alteration or disruption of species interaction networks, with different consequences for the species belonging to the guild and a likely spatial increase of competition and/or intraguild predation. Our work shows significant interactions and important potential changes in the overlap of areas suitable for the interacting species, which reinforce the importance of including relevant biotic interactions in predictive climate change models for increasing forecast accuracy.

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1. Semi-natural grasslands are among the richest European ecosystems in terms of biodiversity. However, they have been severely affected by farming intensification and land abandonment, which have been both exacerbated by the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The most recent CAP included a "greening" measure dedicated to grassland conservation, presumed to be beneficial to biodiversity; however, scientific evidence about its effectiveness is still scarce.2. In the Alps, hay meadows have undergone dramatic management changes in recent decades. We used a comprehensive community ecology approach to highlight how the multi-scale and interacting effects of such changes impact birds, with the aim of providing knowledge to support improvements to the CAP. 3. Birds were surveyed at 63 landscape units in northeast Italy, equally subdivided into areas dominated by (a) extensive hay meadows, (b) intensive hay meadows, and (c) areas formerly dominated by meadows but partially converted into other agricultural land use. This environmental gradient mirrors in space the temporal gradient of the agricultural changes that have recently occurred in the Alps.4. Community composition, species richness, and the number of meadow-specialist species were analysed according to environmental predictors (i.e. landscape, meadow management, and topography), and to spatial factors. We aimed to disentangle the exclusive and joint fraction of variation explained by each of them. Meadow conversion, allowed by the CAP in force, created a shift in communitycomposition towards assemblages dominated by generalist species at the expense of meadow specialists. The cover of intensive meadows was negatively correlated with species richness, whereas the number of meadow specialists was negatively correlated with the cover of early-mown (i.e. within the third week of June) meadows. Mowing date was, in turn, related to elevation, with meadows at higher elevations mown later in the season, and to meadow intensification (the use of external inputs, in particular liquid manure, leads to earlier and more frequent cuts per year). | 605Journal of Applied Ecology ASSANDRI et Al.