Climate change, water and agriculture in the Greater Mekong subregion

Abstract

Research ReportsThe publications in this series cover a wide range of subjects-from computer modeling to experience with water user associations-and vary in content from directly applicable research to more basic studies, on which applied work ultimately depends. Some research reports are narrowly focused, analytical and detailed empirical studies; others are wide-ranging and synthetic overviews of generic problems.Although most of the reports are published by IWMI staff and their collaborators, we welcome contributions from others. Each report is reviewed internally by IWMI staff, and by external reviewers. The reports are published and distributed both in hard copy and electronically (www.iwmi.org) and where possible all data and analyses will be available as separate downloadable files. Reports may be copied freely and cited with due acknowledgment. About IWMIIWMI's mission is to improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment. In serving this mission, IWMI concentrates on the integration of policies, technologies and management systems to achieve workable solutions to real problems-practical, relevant results in the field of irrigation and water and land resources.

Water Resource Models in the Mekong Basin: A Review

“…Results have been reviewed by TKK and SEA START RC (2009) and Johnston et al (2010). In general, the studies concurred that rainy season runoff and discharge are likely to increase in the first half of the 21st century in response to projected increases in precipitation; but there were significant differences in projected magnitude of changes in the maximum water level and flooded area, and in estimates of dry-season changes.…”

“…However, based on the recent estimates, the timescale for significant change in climate is much longer than that for development; dams, diversions and withdrawals are likely to have much greater impact on water resources in the next 20 to 30 years than the direct effects of climate change (Johnston et al 2010;TKK and SEA START RC 2009;Keskinen et al 2010).…”

“…In the context of policy and planning, until more certainty emerges, it is very important to take account of the full range of possible outcomes and take a 'no regrets' approach to policy development. A robust approach is needed, seeking solutions that address current problems and build resilience, regardless of the direction of change (McGray et al 2007;World Bank 2004;Johnston et al 2010).…”

Balancing-out floods and droughts: Opportunities to utilize floodwater harvesting and groundwater storage for agricultural development in Thailand

“…Future climate projections in the region offer a range of possible scenarios, but tend to agree on the high uncertainty of future rainfall patterns (Johnston et al, 2010;Chinvanno et al, 2009). The need to address this uncertainty by diversifying water sources and increasing storage has become a shared view in water resources management.…”

“…For example, in some of the major irrigation areas of the Central Plains, greater exploitation of groundwater for irrigation serves to support year-round rice production in areas where canal water is remote or unreliable (Bejranonda et al, 2006). Some of the major basins in the region, such as the Chao Phraya in Thailand (Molle, 2004) and the Red in Vietnam (Johnston et al, 2010) have been described as 'closed' in the sense that all of the water resources (river flow) have been put to use for part or all of the year (Smakhtin, 2008). Under such circumstances, water deficits typically occur in the dry season, leading to conflict between rural agricultural users and the other sectorial water users.…”