Climate change threatens the most biodiverse regions of Mexico

Abstract

Climate change threatens Earth's biodiversity, although its impacts are variable and depend on the capacity of species and ecosystems to cope with the magnitude and speed of change. Natural protected areas (NPAs) constitute potential refugia for species' persistence and for sustaining the provisioning of ecosystem services. Biosphere reserves are NPAs that are less altered by human actions and provide habitat to endemic, threatened or endangered species. Here, we aim to evaluate the threat imposed by climate change on the network of biosphere reserves in Mexico. Focusing on five bioclimatic variables, we computed the climatic spacemeasured as an n-dimensional hypervolume-of 40 NPAs. Increases in temperature are predicted for all NPAs by 2050, whereas decreases in annual rainfall are predicted for 30 NPAs. By 2050, 31 NPAs that provide habitat to 22,866 recorded species are predicted to lose 100% of their baseline climatic space, shifting to completely novel climates. On average, the other nine NPAs are predicted to lose 55.7% (SD = 26.7%) of their baseline climatic space, while 54.5% (SD = 32.5%) of the future climatic space will be novel. Seventeen NPAs may lose climate variability (homogenization), decreasing species' niches. The extent to which non-analogue conditions will remain within the tolerance of species and ecosystems is currently unknown. Finally, we propose a vulnerability index to categorise NPAs based on their loss of existing climatic space, total geographic area, species richness, and uniqueness of species composition, finding los Tuxtlas and Tiburon Ballena as the most and least vulnerable NPAs, respectively.

Tropical rainforest fragmentation affects plant species richness, composition and abundance depending on plant-size class and life history

“…Going forward, we need to consider how to preserve biodiversity and ecosystem services amid anthropogenic landscapes, and to carefully examine how remnant forest fragments can play a role (e.g., as biological corridors) in tropical ecosystem restoration efforts. Finally, the study of synergies between land use and other anthropogenic impacts, such as climate change (Esperon-Rodríguez et al 2019), and their effects on biodiversity in several tropical regions and considering multiple taxa represents a critical, pending agenda.…”

Efectos de la agricultura intensiva y el cambio climático sobre la biodiversidad

“…El crecimiento agrícola conduce a la pérdida de hábitats naturales y tiene un impacto en la biodiversidad (Bionda et al 2012), como la agricultura intensiva del cultivo de la Soya (Glycine max) en Argentina, que provoco que Ecosistemas boscosos naturales desaparezcan. Asimismo, afecta a países como Bolivia y Uruguay a través de la compra y arrendamiento de campos para sembrar Soya (Biodiversidad LA., 2005), aunque sus impactos son variables y dependen de la capacidad de sobrevivencia de especies y los ecosistemas para hacer frente a la magnitud y velocidad del cambio (Esperon-Rodriguez et al 2019).…”

Using species distribution modelling to identify ‘coldspots’ for conservation of freshwater fishes under a changing climate

“…With the effects of climate change increasing, a recent paradigm shift has been to incorporate consideration of climatic stability or refugia into the establishment or maintenance of protected areas (Esperon‐Rodriguez et al, 2019). The inclusion of climate change into spatial planning of protected areas is often achieved through actions such as identifying potential refugia and future distributions, or connectivity between present and future distributions (Jones et al, 2016).…”