Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China

Zhang, Dian; Jim, Chi Yung; Lin, Chusheng; He, Yuanqing; Lee, Fung

doi:10.1007/bf02897517

Cited by 58 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Since the 1900s, China has been subjected to consistent warming. These rises and falls match closely with the alternation of cold and warm phases in China delineated by Zhang et al (2005Zhang et al ( , 2006Zhang et al ( , 2007b. By definition, in agrarian societies, 80 to 90% of the population is engaged in subsistence agriculture.…”

Section: Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 58%

Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium

Lee

Zhang²,

Fok³

2009

Clim. Res.

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ABSTRACT:The relationship between climate and population has long been discussed, but rarely has it been quantitatively measured. Hence, the relationship remains ambiguous. In the present study, we employ fine-grained temperature, aridity threshold, and population data, together with logistic models and spatial statistics, to quantitatively explore how far climate change affected population growth dynamics in China from 1000 to 1979. Statistical results confirm that cold climate was associated with below average population growth, mediated by regional geographic contexts. In addition, cold climate triggered a southward shift of populations. In short, the climate-population relationship was evident in historical China, and temperature was more influential than the aridity threshold in explaining the fluctuation of population size and shifts in population distribution. The strong influence of temperature change on northward and southward population shifts and the weak influence of the change in the aridity threshold on population growth dynamics are further discussed. The observed temperature-population relationship may give some indication of future demographic effects from climate warming.

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Section: Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 58%

Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium

Lee

Zhang²,

Fok³

2009

Clim. Res.

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“…In reference to Zhang et al (2005Zhang et al ( , 2006Zhang et al ( , 2007b, the boundaries of the warm and cold phases were delineated at the mean temperature point between minimum and maximum values of 2 contiguous phases on Briffa & Osborn's (2002) averaged series. A cold or warm phase would be determined if the average temperature change had an amplitude exceeding 0.14°C, in order to obtain an equal aggregate duration of cold and warm periods.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911

Lee¹,

Zhang²

2010

Clim. Res.

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Many studies of secular population cycles in historical China conclude that when population is large -relative to the land's carrying capacity -further population increase can lead to mortality crises through war, famine and epidemics, resulting in subsequent population decline. In these studies, population cycles are thought to be driven primarily by population growth. Nevertheless, some scholars have noted a strong correlation between deteriorating climate, dynastic change, and population collapse in historical China. They suggest climate forcing as the underlying driver of population cycles, but quantitative evidence has been lacking to date. In the present study, we employed high resolution temperature data, reports on mortality events, and population datasets to quantitatively examine the extent to which climate change was responsible for Chinese population cycles. Results show that there were 5 major population contractions in China between 1000 CE and 1911, and all of them occurred in periods with a cold climate, when mortality crises triggered population collapses. Nevertheless, the climate-population association is non-linear, because it is mediated by population pressure. Although social buffers were increasingly effective in dissipating climate forcing, they could not prevent population collapses from occurring during periods of long-term cooling. Our results challenge classic Malthusian and post-Malthusian interpretations of historical Chinese population cycles.

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“…This period coincided with the end of the Yuan dynasty and with the early Ming dynasty. During this period (1334-1487 AD), there was social instability across the country due to famine, adverse climatic conditions, and poverty, which eventually led to peasant rebellions (36). There was an average of 2.15-3.46 instances of warfare per year in the country.…”

Section: Early Bronze Age In China (Phase Ii)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Seven Thousand Years of Records on the Mining and Utilization of Metals from Lake Sediments in Central China

Lee

Zhang

et al. 2008

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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A 268 cm section of sediment core from Liangzhi Lake in Hubei province in central China was used to assess the use and accumulation of metals in the lake in the past 7,000 years. The concentrations of trace metals, including Cu, Pb, Ni, and Zn, and major elements, Ca, Fe, and Mg, in a 14 C-dated segment of sediment core were analyzed. Historical trends on the input of metals to Liangzhi Lake from around 5000 BC to the present were recorded in the sediments, representing about 7,000 years of history on the mining and utilization of metals in central China. The concentrations of Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn increased gradually from about 3000 ( 328 BC, indicating the start of the Bronze Age in ancient China. During the period 467 ( 257 to 215 ( 221 AD, there was a rapid increase in the concentrations of these metals in the sediments, indicating enormous inputs of these metals at that time. This era corresponded to China's Warring States Period (475-221 BC) and the early Han Dynasty (206 BC-220 AD), during which copper and lead were extensively used in making bronze articles such as vessels, tools, and weapons. From 1880 ( 35 AD to the early 1900s, there was also a significant increase in the concentrations of metals such as Cu, Ni, and Pb, which probably reflected the metal emissions and utilization during the early period of industrial development and weapon manufacture during the wars in China. The Pb isotopic analysis showed that the surface and subsurface sediments had lower 206 Pb/ 207 Pb and 208 Pb/ 207 Pb ratios than the deeper layers, reflecting the additional input of Pb from mining activities that took place during the Bronze Age era and in modern times. This study provides direct evidence of the environmental impact of the mining and utilization of metals in the last 7,000 years in one of the important regions of Chinese civilization.

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Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China

Cited by 58 publications

References 23 publications

Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium

Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium

Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911

Seven Thousand Years of Records on the Mining and Utilization of Metals from Lake Sediments in Central China

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