Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium

Lee, Harry F.; Zhang, David; Fok, Lincoln

doi:10.3354/cr00816

Cited by 33 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 48 publications

(63 reference statements)

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“…Using logistic models and spatial statistics, we systematically demonstrated that long-term cooling significantly shrank the carrying capacity of agrarian China, resulting in below average population growth and southward shifts of the population, and that the reverse scenario was also true. Our preliminary results provided strong evidence for the climate-population relationship in historical China, and demonstrated that temperature was more influential than aridity threshold in explaining fluctuations in population size and shifts in population distribution (Lee et al 2008(Lee et al , 2009). In the present study, we further explore the climate-population relationship via an empirical approach.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 58%

“…To address this controversy, we quantitatively verified the climate-population relationship described in qualitative studies (Lee et al 2008(Lee et al , 2009). Using logistic models and spatial statistics, we systematically demonstrated that long-term cooling significantly shrank the carrying capacity of agrarian China, resulting in below average population growth and southward shifts of the population, and that the reverse scenario was also true.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

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Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911

Lee¹,

Zhang²

2010

Clim. Res.

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Many studies of secular population cycles in historical China conclude that when population is large -relative to the land's carrying capacity -further population increase can lead to mortality crises through war, famine and epidemics, resulting in subsequent population decline. In these studies, population cycles are thought to be driven primarily by population growth. Nevertheless, some scholars have noted a strong correlation between deteriorating climate, dynastic change, and population collapse in historical China. They suggest climate forcing as the underlying driver of population cycles, but quantitative evidence has been lacking to date. In the present study, we employed high resolution temperature data, reports on mortality events, and population datasets to quantitatively examine the extent to which climate change was responsible for Chinese population cycles. Results show that there were 5 major population contractions in China between 1000 CE and 1911, and all of them occurred in periods with a cold climate, when mortality crises triggered population collapses. Nevertheless, the climate-population association is non-linear, because it is mediated by population pressure. Although social buffers were increasingly effective in dissipating climate forcing, they could not prevent population collapses from occurring during periods of long-term cooling. Our results challenge classic Malthusian and post-Malthusian interpretations of historical Chinese population cycles.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 58%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911

Lee¹,

Zhang²

2010

Clim. Res.

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“…More recent breakthroughs came from research adopting quantitative approaches to all known cases of social crisis. These studies show that, in recent history, climate change was responsible for the outbreak of war, dynastic transition, and population decline in China, Europe, and around the world because of climate-induced shrinkage of agricultural production (6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15). However, the underlying causal linkages from climate change to agricultural production and various human catastrophes in history have not been addressed scientifically.…”

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confidence: 99%

The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis

Zhang

Lee

Wang

et al. 2011

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

391

300

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Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.climate-driven economy | Granger Causality Analysis | grain price D ebate about the relation between climate and human crisis has lasted over a century. With recent advances in paleotemperature reconstruction, scholars note that massive social disturbance, societal collapse, and population collapse often coincided with great climate change in America, the Middle East, China, and many other countries in preindustrial times (1-5). Although most of these scientists believe that climate change could cause human catastrophe, their arguments are backed simply by qualitative scrutiny of narrow historic examples. More recent breakthroughs came from research adopting quantitative approaches to all known cases of social crisis. These studies show that, in recent history, climate change was responsible for the outbreak of war, dynastic transition, and population decline in China, Europe, and around the world because of climate-induced

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“…Several studies have SD standard deviation, CV coefficient of variation * indicates significance for the Mean-comparison test in relative to the Mean 3.07 of the whole period, * P \ 0.10; ** P \ 0.05; *** P \ 0.01 demonstrated that the effects of short-term and long-term changes in different climatic elements on different social factors are highly variable. Long-term temperature changes are typically considered as being much more influential than short-term changes in temperature, aridity threshold or precipitation for explaining fluctuations in population size and shifts in the population distribution (Lee et al 2009), macro-economic cycles in Europe (Pei et al 2014) and large-scale human socioeconomic crises (Zhang et al 2011). Short-term climate variations merely raised prices, while longer climate changes resulted in economic crises (Pei et al 2013).…”

Section: Short-and Long-term Effects Of Climate Change On Macro-economentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For a heavily agrarian-based society in historical China, this mechanism is also the most direct and primary pathway through which past climate changes affected the rise and fall of macro-economic development. Long cool periods shorten the length of the growing seasons and reduce the elevation and latitude at which crops can be grown, which decreases the amount of land available for cultivation and leads to either a decline in total output or more intensive cultivation with lower yields, particularly in higher latitude regions (Galloway 1986;Lee et al 2009). Higher ratios for poor harvests were found during the cold periods Yin et al 2014).…”

Section: Potential Mechanism For Climatic Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A preliminary analysis of economic fluctuations and climate changes in China from BC 220 to AD 1910

Wei

Fang

2014

Reg Environ Change

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Understanding the socioeconomic effects of past climate change is valuable for sustainable social development. However, quantitative analyses of the longterm relationships between climate change and human society have been limited by a lack of long-term highresolution data that indicate socioeconomic processes. Here, based on 1,091 records extracted from 25 books on Chinese history and economic history written by leading contemporary scholars, an economic proxy series for China with decadal resolution is presented that encompasses the period from BC 220 to AD 1910. A method for semantic differential and integrating descriptions with multi-time resolution is developed. The statistical results show that warm and wet periods were associated with above-average economic performance, while cold and dry climatic scenarios greatly increased the possibility of economic crisis. Temperature was more influential than precipitation in explaining the long-term economic fluctuations, whereas precipitation displayed more significant effects on the short-term macro-economic cycle. It is proposed that the climatic effects on agrarian economic development were highly dependent on the social vulnerability, which is determined by particular social, economic and political backgrounds. From a deep time perspective, our study may provide new insight into the current intense arguments regarding the economic effects of global warming.

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Temperature, aridity thresholds, and population growth dynamics in China over the last millennium

Cited by 33 publications

References 48 publications

Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911

Changes in climate and secular population cycles in China, 1000 CE to 1911

The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis

A preliminary analysis of economic fluctuations and climate changes in China from BC 220 to AD 1910

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