Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

Kyselý, Jan; Gaál, Ladislav; Beranová, Romana; Plavcová, Eva

doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0362-z

Cited by 53 publications

(46 citation statements)

References 38 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…For maps, we chose to use the ensemble mean values. The ensemble mean of different climate models was found to perform better than the individual models in terms of systematic bias and produces more representative results than single RCMs [23,49,50]. In addition, the mean model tends have a similar quality for most areas and are less prone to featuring large deviations in particular areas [23].…”

Section: Approach Of the Analysismentioning

confidence: 90%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Danube River and Its Tributaries Using an Ensemble of Climate Scenarios

Stagl

Hattermann

2015

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Information about the potential impacts of climate change on river runoff is needed to prepare efficient adaptation strategies. This study presents scenario projections for the future hydrological runoff regime in the Danube River Basin. The eco-hydrological watershed model Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM) was applied for the entire Danube River catchment, considering 1224 subbasins. After calibration and validation of the model, a set of high-resolution climate projections (bias-corrected and non-bias-corrected) served as meteorological drivers with which future daily river discharge under different climate warming scenario conditions was simulated. Despite existing uncertainties, robust trends could be identified. In the next 30 years, the seasonal stream-flow regime of the Danube and its tributaries is projected to change considerably. Our results show a general trend towards a decrease in summer runoff for the whole Danube basin and, additionally, in autumn runoff for the Middle and Lower Danube basin, aggravating the existing low flow periods. For the winter and early spring seasons, mainly January-March, an increase in river runoff is projected. Greater uncertainties show up in particular for winter runoff in the Dinaric Alps and the Lower Danube basin. The existing trends become very distinct until the end of the 21st century, especially for snow-influenced river regimes.

show abstract

Section: Approach Of the Analysismentioning

confidence: 90%

Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Danube River and Its Tributaries Using an Ensemble of Climate Scenarios

Stagl

Hattermann

2015

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The target size of the regions satisfies the 5T-rule (Jakob et al, 1999) for long return period T = 200 years, and the regional homogeneity is tested by a built-in test of Lu and Stedinger (1992). More details on the method and settings are given in Kyselý et al (2011b).…”

Section: Methodology Of Regional Extreme Value Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…by means of the extreme value analy- sis for each gridbox separately (Kyselý et al, 2011b), and it is particularly advantageous in areas with complex orography in which fixed homogeneous regions may be difficult to delineate, which is also the case of Central Europe.…”

Section: Methodology Of Regional Extreme Value Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In order to get more robust spatial patterns of high precipitation quantiles, regional frequency analysis (the region-of-influence method, briefly introduced in Section 2.3) is adopted for the estimation of extreme value distributions. The results are also compared with those for 1-day precipitation extremes evaluated by Kyselý et al (2011b).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Projected Changes in Flood-Generating Precipitation Extremes Over the Czech Republic in High-Resolution Regional Climate Models

Kyselý¹,

Gaál²,

Beranová³

2011

Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change scenarios of high quantiles of 5-day precipitation amounts (proxies for flood-generating events) over the Czech Republic are evaluated in an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the ENSEMBLES project. The region-of-influence method of the regional frequency analysis is applied as a pooling scheme. This means that for any single gridbox, a homogeneous region (set of gridboxes) is identified and data from that region are used when fitting the Generalized Extreme Value distribution.The climate change scenarios for the late 21st century show widespread increases in high quantiles of 5-day precipitation amounts in winter, consistent with projected changes in mean winter precipitation. In summer, increases in precipitation extremes occur despite an overall drying (prevailing declines in mean summer precipitation), which may have important hydrological implications. The results for summer suggest a possible substantial change in characteristics of warm-season precipitation over Central Europe, with more severe dry as well as wet extremes. The spatial pattern of projected changes in summer precipitation extremes, with larger increases in the western part of the area and smaller changes towards east, may also point to a declining role of Mediterranean cyclones in producing precipitation extremes in Central Europe in a future climate. However, uncertainties of the climate change scenarios remain large, which is partly due to biases in reproducing precipitation characteristics in climate models, partly due to large differences among the RCMs, and partly due to factors that are poorly or not at all represented in the examined ensemble. The latter are related also to uncertainties in future emission scenarios and socio-economic development in general.KEY WORDS: Precipitation Extremes, Regional Frequency Analysis, Climate Change, Regional Climate Models, the Czech Republic. Jan Kyselý, Ladislav Gaál, Romana Beranová: PREDPOKLADANÉ ZMENY V ZRÁŽKOVÝCH EX-TRÉMOCH NEBEZPEČNÝCH PRE TVORBU POVODNÍ NA ÚZEMÍ ČESKEJ REPUBLIKY V REGIONÁLNYCH KLIMATICKÝCH MODELOCH S VYSOKÝM PRIESTOROVÝM ROZ-LÍŠENÍM. J. Hydrol. Hydromech., 59, 2011, 4; 44 lit., 6 obr., 1 tab.Práca analyzuje scenáre klimatickej zmeny pre vysoké kvantily 5-denných úhrnov zrážok (ktoré predstavujú možné riziko z pohľadu tvorby povodňových udalostí) na území Českej republiky, a to na základe širšej množiny simulácií z regionálnych klimatických modelov (RCM) s vysokým priestorovým rozlíšením, dostupných z projektu ENSEMBLES. Kvantily zrážkových extrémov sa odhadujú na základe metódy vplyvného regiónu, ktorá je jedným z variantov regionálnej frekvenčnej analýzy. To znamená, že pre každý gridový bod sa identifikuje jedinečný homogénny región (t.j. množina ďalších gridových bodov) a zrážkové údaje dostupné zo všetkých gridových bodov v rámci daného regiónu sa zužitkujú v procese odhadovania kvantilov využitím zovšeobecneného extremálneho rozdelenia.Scenáre klimatickej zmeny pre obdobie posledných troch dekád 21. storočia (2070...

show abstract

“…Alexander et al, 2006;Trenberth, 2011;Westra et al, 2014) as well as in climate model projections (e.g. Kyselý et al, 2011;Hanel and Buishand, 2012;Madsen et al, 2014). It is argued that the intensity of short-duration extreme events in particular might increase more in future climate due to dynamical feedbacks Berg and Haerter, 2013;Millán, 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of rainfall events in regional climate model simulations for the Czech Republic

Svoboda

Hanel

Máca

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Characteristics of rainfall events in an ensemble of 23 regional climate model (RCM) simulations are evaluated against observed data in the Czech Republic for the period 1981-2000. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time (MIT) and only heavy events (15 % of events with the largest event depths) during the warm season (May-September) are considered. Inasmuch as an RCM grid box represents a spatial average, the effects of areal averaging of rainfall data on characteristics of events are investigated using the observed data. Rainfall events from the RCM simulations are then compared to those from the at-site and area-average observations. Simulated number of heavy events and seasonal total precipitation due to heavy events are on average represented relatively well despite the higher spatial variation compared to observations. RCM-simulated event depths are comparable to the area-average observations, while event durations are overestimated and other characteristics related to rainfall intensity are significantly underestimated. The differences between RCM-simulated and at-site observed rainfall event characteristics are in general dominated by the biases of the climate models rather than the areal-averaging effect. Most of the rainfall event characteristics in the majority of the RCM simulations show a similar altitude-dependence pattern as in the observed data. The number of heavy events and seasonal total precipitation due to heavy events increase with altitude, and this dependence is captured better by the RCM simulations with higher spatial resolution.

show abstract

Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

Cited by 53 publications

References 38 publications

Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Danube River and Its Tributaries Using an Ensemble of Climate Scenarios

Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Danube River and Its Tributaries Using an Ensemble of Climate Scenarios

Projected Changes in Flood-Generating Precipitation Extremes Over the Czech Republic in High-Resolution Regional Climate Models

Characteristics of rainfall events in regional climate model simulations for the Czech Republic

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About