Climate Change Scenarios for Hudson Bay, Canada, from General Circulation Models

Gough, William A.; Wolfe, Edmund

doi:10.14430/arctic773

Cited by 54 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(24 reference statements)

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“…In the CGCM1 model, we defined the Hudson Bay region by the 40 grid points located between 53.81 • N to 68.65 • N and 71.25 • W to 97.5 • W, a definition based on Gough and Wolfe (2001). These 40 grid points are divided into 28 land grid points and 12 ocean grid points of which one point forms Hudson Strait.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More recently, transient warming scenarios have evolved from the coupling of an ocean GCM to an atmospheric model; the older models incorporated a slab ocean only. Since the thermal inertia of the ocean impedes running the models to equilibrium in a realistic time frame, the equivalent CO 2 concentration in the coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs changes gradually in time according to a specified warming scenario (Gough and Wolfe, 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change Scenarios for the Hudson Bay Region: An Intermodel Comparison

2005

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General circulation models (GCMs) are unanimous in projecting warmer temperatures in an enhanced CO 2 atmosphere, with amplification of this warming in higher latitudes. The Hudson Bay region, which is located in the Arctic and subarctic regions of Canada, should therefore be strongly influenced by global warming. In this study, we compare the response of Hudson Bay to a transient warming scenario provided by six-coupled atmosphere-ocean models. Our analysis focuses on surface temperature, precipitation, sea-ice coverage, and permafrost distribution. The results show that warming is expected to peak in winter over the ocean, because of a northward retreat of the sea-ice cover. Also, a secondary warming peak is observed in summer over land in the Canadian and Australian-coupled GCMs, which is associated with both a reduction in soil moisture conditions and changes in permafrost distribution. In addition, a relationship is identified between the retreat of the sea-ice cover and an enhancement of precipitation over both land and oceanic surfaces. The response of the sea-ice cover and permafrost layer to global warming varies considerably among models and thus large differences are observed in the projected regional increase in temperature and precipitation. In view of the important feedbacks that a retreat of the sea-ice cover and the distribution of permafrost are likely to play in the doubled and tripled CO 2 climates of Hudson Bay, a good representation of these two parameters is necessary to provide realistic climate change scenarios. The use of higher resolution regional climate model is recommended to develop scenarios of climate change for the Hudson Bay region.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Scenarios for the Hudson Bay Region: An Intermodel Comparison

2005

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“…This has important implications for polar bears, who favour habitats on ice over the continental shelf rather than over the deeper waters of the polar basin where there is a lower biological productivity (Derocher et al, 2004). In more southerly areas such as Hudson Bay, ice cover may disappear by mid-century (Gough and Wolfe, 2001). …”

Section: Sea Ice and The Relationship To Polar Bear Ecologymentioning

confidence: 99%

An iconic approach for representing climate change

O’Neill

Hulme

2009

Global Environmental Change

171

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“…As a consequence of rising temperatures, spring sea ice break-up in western Hudson Bay is now occurring earlier at a rate of about 10 days per decade since the 1970s (Gagnon and Gough 2005a;Stirling and Parkinson 2006). Climate change scenarios for the Hudson Bay ecosystem predict that trends observed in recent years will continue and amplify and may result in dramatic modifications in the cryogenic cycle (Gough and Wolfe 2001;Gagnon and Gough 2005b). Distribution, nutrition, reproduction and ultimately survival and abundance of sea ice-dependent species will be impacted by sea ice reduction through habitat loss, shifts in the distribution and availability of their prey, and a possible increase in predation and competition pressures with temperate species (Tynan and DeMaster 1997;Gaston and Woo 2008;Laidre et al 2008;Post et al 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal variation in distribution and density of ice-obligated seals in western Hudson Bay, Canada

2012

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Recent unidirectional climatic trends and changes in top predator population ecology suggest that long-term modifications may be happening in Hudson Bay, Canada. Effects of such changes on ice-obligated seal populations are expected but long-term studies are required to differentiate climate-induced changes from natural variation. We conducted strip-transect surveys in late spring in to estimate distribution, density and abundance of ice-obligated ringed (Phoca hispida) and bearded (Erignathus barbatus) seals in western Hudson Bay. When hauled out, ringed seals preferred land-fast and consolidated pack ice, whereas bearded seals preferred unconsolidated pack ice. Bearded and ringed seal density estimates varied from 0.0036 to 0.0229 seals/km 2 of ice and from 0.46 to 1.60 seals/km 2 of ice, respectively. Strong inter-annual variations were recorded in the abundance estimates of both species, with the largest abundance estimates in 1995 (104,162 and 1,494 ringed and bearded seals, respectively) and the lowest in 2008 for ringed seals (33,701) and 1997 for bearded seals (278). A sine function best described seal density estimates in western Hudson Bay and suggested a decadal cycle. Previous studies that reported low ringed seal demographic parameters in the 1990s and a recovery in the 2000s supported our interpretation of the survey results. We discuss our results in the context of climate warming and suggest that a long-term decline in ice-obligated seal density estimates may overlay a possible natural decadal cycle.

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Climate Change Scenarios for Hudson Bay, Canada, from General Circulation Models

Cited by 54 publications

References 18 publications

Climate Change Scenarios for the Hudson Bay Region: An Intermodel Comparison

Climate Change Scenarios for the Hudson Bay Region: An Intermodel Comparison

An iconic approach for representing climate change

Temporal variation in distribution and density of ice-obligated seals in western Hudson Bay, Canada

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