While there is a recognised need to adapt to changing climatic conditions, there is an emerging discourse of limits to such adaptation. Limits are traditionally analysed as a set of immutable thresholds in biological, economic or technological parameters. This paper contends that limits to adaptation are endogenous to society and hence contingent on ethics, knowledge, attitudes to risk and culture. We review insights from history, sociology and psychology of risk, economics and political science to develop four propositions concerning limits to adaptation. First, any limits to adaptation depend on the ultimate goals of adaptation underpinned by diverse values. Second, adaptation need not be limited by uncertainty around future foresight of risk. Third, social and individual factors limit adaptation action. Fourth, systematic undervaluation of loss of places and culture disguises real, experienced but subjective limits to adaptation. We conclude that these issues of values and ethics, risk, knowledge and culture construct societal limits to adaptation, but that these limits are mutable.

Climate change is not 'a problem' waiting for 'a solution'. It is an environmental, cultural and political phenomenon which is re-shaping the way we think about ourselves, our societies and humanity's place on Earth. Drawing upon twenty-five years of professional work as an international climate change scientist and public commentator, Mike Hulme provides a unique insider's account of the emergence of this phenomenon and the diverse ways in which it is understood. He uses different standpoints from science, economics, faith, psychology, communication, sociology, politics and development to explain why we disagree about climate change. In this way he shows that climate change, far from being simply an 'issue' or a 'threat', can act as a catalyst to revise our perception of our place in the world. Why We Disagree About Climate Change is an important contribution to the ongoing debate over climate change and its likely impact on our lives.

The intensity distribution of daily precipitation amounts in the UK has changed over the period 1961–1995, becoming on average more intense in winter and less intense in summer. This result is based on an analysis of 110 UK station records. In winter, and in terms of their relative contributions to total winter precipitation, there has been a decline in light and medium events and an increase in the heaviest events. This change is fairly uniform across the whole country and is apparent even when longer records (with reduced spatial coverage/detail) are analysed back to 1931 or 1908. The reverse is found in summer: over 1961–1995 there has been a decline in the proportion of the seasonal total being provided by the heaviest events. In the longer term context, however, the summer changes appear to be a return to earlier levels after a period in the 1960s when heavy summer rainfall made a greater than normal contribution. More complex changes have occurred in the intensity distribution of spring and autumn precipitation, with opposite changes in different regions of the UK. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society

Abstract. Recent century-long experiments performed with global climate models have simulated observed trends in globalmean temperature quite successfully when both greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing has been included. The performance of these same experiments in simulating observed global-scale changes in precipitation has not previously been examined. Here we use a gridded terrestrial precipitation dataset for the period 1900 to 1996 to examine the extent to which observed global and zonalmean precipitation sensitivities to global warming have been captured by a series of model simulations recently completed by the UK Hadley Centre. There are signs that the model has been able to reproduce at least some of the observed zonal-mean variations in the precipitation sensitivity to warming. Questions remain both about the quality of the observed precipitation data and about the spatial scale at which anthropogenically-forced global climate models can be expected to reproduce observed variations in precipitation.

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Using station rainfall data extracted from two comprehensive data sets, we show that large decreasing rainfall trends were widespread in the Sahel (10-20°N and 18°W-20°E) from the late 1950s to the late 1980s. Thereafter, Sahel rainfall has recovered somewhat through 2003, although the drought conditions have not ended in the region. These results confirm the findings of many previous studies. We also found that large multi-year oscillations appear to be more frequent and extreme after the late 1980s than previously. Analyses of Sahel regional rainfall time series derived from a fixed subset of stations and from all available stations show that the decreasing trend in Sahel rainfall is not an artifact of changing station networks. The rainfall model used by Chappell and Agnew (2004 International Journal of Climatology 24: 547-554) is incorrect and their modelled rainfall time series is totally unrepresentative of Sahel average rainfall. Their conclusion about the Sahel rainfall trends being an artifact of changing station locations is emphatically wrong and their speculative statements about the implications of their results for other studies and other regions of the world are completely unfounded.