Climate change risk: an adaptation and mitigation agenda for Indian cities

Revi, Aromar

doi:10.1177/0956247808089157

Cited by 284 publications

(163 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…This topic has been covered in the literature in relation to agriculture 16 , fisheries 17 , and food security and livelihood 18 . The second category includes the health [19][20][21] and economic impacts on poor urban and rural communities that lack access to basic services, face multiple stressors 22,23 and food security issues 24 and have low adaptive capacity, e.g. lowproductivity food-producing farmers and slum dwellers.…”

Section: Challenges In Scenario Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses

2011

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The impacts of climate change on human systems depend not only on the level of emissions but also on how inherently vulnerable these systems are to the changing climate. There are large uncertainties on the future degrees of development and structure of societies and economies and hence the assessment of climate change effects is complex. One way to deal with this complexity is by using scenario analysis that takes account of these socio-economic differences. The challenge of developing scenarios is to identify the dimensions along which societies and economies evolve over time in such a way that covers sufficiently different vulnerability patterns. This conceptual effort is critical for the development of informative scenarios. Here, we identify three dimensions on which to build a new set of scenarios to assess climate change effects on human systems. The dimensions we propose take into account the most relevant factors that define the vulnerability of human systems to climate change and their ability to adapt to it.

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Section: Challenges In Scenario Buildingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses

2011

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“…In addition, to the changes in rainfall explored in this study, Mumbai will also be exposed to sea level rise and potential increases in the risks associated with of heat waves, tropical cyclones and storm surges. Managing these combined risks could require significant revision of urban planning practices across city to integrate disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation measures (as well as greenhouse gas mitigation) into day-to-day urban development and service delivery activities (Revi 2005).…”

Section: Adaptation To Flood Risk In Mumbaimentioning

confidence: 99%

An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai

et al. 2010

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Managing risks from extreme events will be a crucial component of climate change adaptation. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to assess future risks and quantify the benefits of adaptation options at a city-scale, with application to flood risk in Mumbai. In 2005, Mumbai experienced unprecedented flooding, causing direct economic damages estimated at almost two billion USD and 500 fatalities. scenario could see the likelihood of a 2005-like event more than double. We estimate that total losses (direct plus indirect) associated with a 1-in-100 year event could triple compared with current situation (to $690-$1,890 million USD), due to climate change alone. Continued rapid urbanisation could further increase the risk level. The analysis also demonstrates that adaptation could significantly reduce future losses; for example, estimates suggest that by improving the drainage system in Mumbai, losses associated with a 1-in-100 year flood event today could be reduced by as much as 70%. We show that assessing the indirect costs of extreme events is an important component of an adaptation assessment, both in ensuring the analysis captures the full economic benefits of adaptation and also identifying options that can help to manage indirect risks of disasters. For example, we show that by extending insurance to 100% penetration, the indirect effects of flooding could be almost halved. We conclude that, while this study explores only the upper-bound climate scenario, the risk-assessment core demonstrated in this study could form an important quantitative tool in developing city-scale adaptation strategies. We provide a discussion of sources of uncertainty and risk-based tools could be linked with decision-making approaches to inform adaptation plans that are robust to climate change.

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“…In addition to this long list of goals, urban policies now face new challenges from climate change, including adaptation and mitigation needs. [1][2][3][4][5][6] Adaptation and emission reduction policies rely on the same tools, giving rise to both synergies and conflicts. 7,8 Synergies and conflicts with other policy goals also exist, and environmental policies can result in positive feedback with respect to economic and social issues.…”

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Trade-offs and synergies in urban climate policies

2012

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Cities are at the forefront of climate policies. 1-6 However, urban climate policies are not implemented in a vacuum; they interact with other policy goals, such as economic competitiveness or social issues. These interactions can lead to trade-offs and implementation obstacles, or to synergies. 7,8 Little analysis investigating these interactions exists, in part because it requires a broad interdisciplinary approach. Using a novel integrated city model, we provide a first quantification of these trade-offs and synergies, going beyond the qualitative statements that have been published so far. We undertake a multicriteria analysis of three urban policies: a greenbelt policy, a zoning policy to reduce flood risk, and a transportation subsidy. Each of these policies appears to be undesirable because it has negative consequences with respect to at least one policy goal; however, in a policy mix, the consequences of each policy are not simply additive. This nonlinearity permits building policy combinations that are win-win strategies. In particular, flood zoning and greenbelt policies are unlikely to be accepted if they are not combined with transportation policies. Our results show that stand-alone adaptation and mitigation policies are unlikely to be politically acceptable and emphasize the need to mainstream climate policy within urban planning.Urban policies have multiple goals, such as enhancing the quality of life and the city's economic competitiveness by means of affordable housing and office space, amenities, and efficient public services. Urban policies also have social objectives aimed at poverty and social segregation issues, safety and security, and public health. They have environmental goals as well, such as reducing air and water pollution and preserving natural areas. In addition to this long list of goals, urban policies now face new challenges from climate change, including adaptation and mitigation needs. [1][2][3][4][5][6] Adaptation and emission reduction policies rely on the same tools, giving rise to both synergies and conflicts. 7,8 Synergies and conflicts with other policy goals also exist, and environmental policies can result in positive feedback with respect to economic and social issues. A decrease in car congestion increases residents' quality of life, enhances economic competitiveness, reduces accessibility inequalities among neighborhoods, and decreases air pollution and GHG emissions. Conversely, while enlarging parks and introducing more vegetation in cities can be a useful way to adapt cities to higher temperatures and can improve the quality of life, such actions may also reduce population density and lead to increased GHG

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Climate change risk: an adaptation and mitigation agenda for Indian cities

Cited by 284 publications

References 8 publications

Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses

Building world narratives for climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses

An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai

Trade-offs and synergies in urban climate policies

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