Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Lyon, Christopher J.; Saupe, Erin E.; Smith, Christopher J.; Hill, Daniel J.; Beckerman, Andrew P.; Stringer, Lindsay C.; Marchant, Robert; McKay, J. T.; Burke, Ariane; O’Higgins, Paul; Dunhill, Alexander M.; Allen, Bethany J.; Riel‐Salvatore, Julien; Aze, Tracy

doi:10.1111/gcb.15871

Cited by 72 publications

(35 citation statements)

References 95 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Müller et al, (2009) predicted similar losses in Arctic marine forests solely on the basis of changes to sea surface temperature, including the loss of L. solidungula from Hudson Bay, southern Baffin Island, Newfoundland and Labrador, and coastlines of the Kara and Barents Seas (Russian Island Novaya Zemlya). Despite severe overall losses, there appears to be little risk of contemporary Arctic marine forests becoming extirpated, even under the most extreme climate projections at the time scales considered here (Figure 2), though longer time scales remain unassessed (Lyon et al, 2022). Ecological investigations of intertidal communities on the West coast of Greenland also support the idea that Arctic marine biota will remain resilient to future climate change (Thyrring et al, 2021).…”

Section: Loss and Succession In Arctic Marine Forestssupporting

confidence: 56%

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Bringloe

Wilkinson

Goldsmit

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Arctic is among the fastest-warming areas of the globe. Understanding the impact of climate change on foundational Arctic marine species is needed to provide insight on ecological resilience at high latitudes. Marine forests, the underwater seascapes formed by seaweeds, are predicted to expand their ranges further north in the Arctic in a warmer climate. Here, we investigated whether northern habitat gains will compensate for losses at the southern range edge by modelling marine forest distributions according to three distribution categories: cryophilic (species restricted to the Arctic environment), cryotolerant (species with broad environmental preferences inclusive but not limited to the Arctic environment), and cryophobic (species restricted to temperate conditions) marine forests. Using stacked MaxEnt models, we predicted the current extent of suitable habitat for contemporary and future marine forests under Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios of increasing emissions (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5). Our analyses indicate that cryophilic marine forests are already ubiquitous in the north, and thus cannot expand their range under climate change, resulting in an overall loss of habitat due to severe southern range contractions. The extent of marine forests within the Arctic basin, however, is predicted to remain largely stable under climate change with notable exceptions in some areas, particularly in the Canadian Archipelago. Succession may occur where cryophilic and cryotolerant species are extirpated at their southern range edge, resulting in ecosystem shifts towards Librarians. WOA Institution: The University of Melbourne. Blended DEAL: CAUL 2022.temperate regimes at mid to high latitudes, though many aspects of these shifts, such as total biomass and depth range, remain to be field validated. Our results provide the first global synthesis of predicted changes to pan-Arctic coastal marine forest ecosystems under climate change and suggest ecosystem transitions are unavoidable now for some areas.

show abstract

Section: Loss and Succession In Arctic Marine Forestssupporting

confidence: 56%

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Bringloe

Wilkinson

Goldsmit

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, climate change is projected to continue beyond 2100 (e.g. Bakker and others, 2016; Lyon and others, 2022), with potentially even more devastating effects on the GrIS than reported here, plus a significant decay of the AIS in the long term (Van Breedam and others, 2020). Further, the unidirectional coupling approach (climate model → ice-sheet model) employed by ISMIP6, and thus here, lacks a detailed accounting of feedbacks of the changing ice sheet on the climate.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 79%

Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate

Greve

Chambers

2022

J. Glaciol.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We conduct extended versions of the ISMIP6 future climate experiments for the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 with the model SICOPOLIS. Beyond 2100, the climate forcing is kept fixed at late-21st-century conditions. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, which amounts to ~ 1.8 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the 12-experiment mean, and ~ 3.5 m SLE (~ 50% of the entire mass) for the most sensitive experiment. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the mass loss is limited to a two-experiment mean of ~ 0.28 m SLE. Climate-change mitigation during the next decades will therefore be an efficient means for limiting the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea-level rise in the long term.

show abstract

“…Brewer and Riede, 2018). Dramatic effects of climate change on life quality are no more than a generation away (Lyon et al, 2021;Thiery et al, 2021). Our knowledge of the past feeds into our ways of imaging the furture -this knowledge enables and constrains our worldmaking (see Vervoort et al, 2015).…”

Section: Teaching History In the Anthropocenementioning

confidence: 99%

Deep History Curricula under the Mandate of the Anthropocene

Riede

2022

FECUN

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Whilst scientifically debated, the key insights encapsulated in the notion of the Anthropocene are profound: First, natural and cultural history – the fates of climate and the natural world on the one hand, and of humankind and its many cultures on the other – are conjoined. Second, human history is certainly not an inevitable history of progress but one potentially towards catastrophe. These realizations are driven by the wicked perspectives of future climate change and the likelihood of dramatically negative consequences for life on Earth. Looking back into deep history, however, the same realizations also have implications for how we view the human past and what driving forces we view as causal. This, in turn, impinges significantly on how we teach deep and recent history, how we articulate it with other disciplines, and how we display it in children’s books, school textbooks, teaching materials and in museums. With roots firmly in a specific academic discipline – archaeology – I here examine what the topsy-turvy perspective of the Anthropocene implies vis-à-vis the design of contemporary, relevant and sustainable history teaching and teaching resources for the classroom and for learning spaces such as museums. While a collapse of traditional disciplinary boundaries is im-practical if not impossible, I draw on notions of dark pedagogy and disciplinary shadow places to highlight how Anthropocene deep history can connect knowledge domains from across the natural and social sciences. New visions for our future need, I suggest, new visions of our past.

show abstract

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100

Abstract: This is an open access article under the terms of the Creat ive Commo ns Attri bution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Cited by 72 publications

References 95 publications

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Arctic marine forest distribution models showcase potentially severe habitat losses for cryophilic species under climate change

Mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet until the year 3000 under a sustained late-21st-century climate

Deep History Curricula under the Mandate of the Anthropocene

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About