Climate change, non‐indigenous species and shipping: assessing the risk of species introduction to a high‐Arctic archipelago

Abstract

Aim Anticipated changes in the global ocean climate will affect the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to the negative effects of non‐indigenous species (NIS). In the Arctic, there is a need to better characterize present and future marine biological introduction patterns and processes. We use a vector‐based assessment to estimate changes in the vulnerability of a high‐Arctic archipelago to marine NIS introduction and establishment. Location Global, with a case study of Svalbard, Norway. Methods We base our assessment on the level of connectedness to global NIS pools through the regional shipping network and predicted changes in ocean climates. Environmental match of ports connected to Svalbard was evaluated under present and future environmental conditions (2050 and 2100 predicted under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario). Risk of NIS introduction was then estimated based on the potential for known NIS to be transported (in ballast water or as biofouling), environmental match, and a qualitative estimate of propagule pressure. Results We show that Svalbard will become increasingly vulnerable to marine NIS introduction and establishment. Over the coming century, sea surface warming at high latitudes is estimated to increase the level of environmental match to nearly one‐third of ports previously visited by vessels travelling to Svalbard in 2011 (n = 136). The shipping network will then likely connect Svalbard to a much greater pool of known NIS, under conditions more favourable for their establishment. Research and fishing vessels were estimated to pose the highest risk of NIS introduction through biofouling, while ballast water discharge is estimated to pose an increased risk by the end of the century. Main conclusions In the absence of focused preventative management, the risk of NIS introduction and establishment in Svalbard, and the wider Arctic, will increase over coming decades, prompting a need to respond in policy and action.

Past Arctic aliens have passed away, current ones may stay

“…Until recently, two processes have maintained the ecological integrity of these cold regions: low frequency of human-mediated dispersal, and the prevailing climate, both of which are rapidly changing (Thuiller et al 2007;Walther et al 2009). Propagule pressure, a primary determinant of alien species occurrence and spread (Carboni et al 2011;Lockwood et al 2005), is increasing in polar regions due to escalating human activity (Chown et al 2012;Lassuy and Lewis 2013;Ware et al 2012Ware et al , 2013. Likewise, ongoing global warming has enabled alien species to expand into regions in which they previously could not survive and reproduce (Walther et al 2009) and has increased invasion rates independent of propagule pressure in China, the United Kingdom, the Alps, and the United States (Huang et al 2011;Marini et al 2009).…”

Microbial and Biogeochemical Dynamics in Glacier Forefields Are Sensitive to Century-Scale Climate and Anthropogenic Change

“…Similarly, glacier surfaces accumulate organic carbon from biological activity (e.g., in situ primary production) and the deposition of allochthonous organic material from terrestrial or anthropogenic sources (Hood and Berner, 2009;Singer et al, 2012;Stibal et al, 2012). It has been suggested that the allochthonous flux of organic carbon to glacier forefields could increase over the next two centuries due to (1) increased glacier runoff and thus increased flux of organic carbon from glacier surfaces to the pro-glacial zone (Foreman et al, 2007;Hood et al, 2015), (2) a longer residence time of liquid water in the glacial snowpack supporting higher growth and carbon fixation rates of snow algae (Morgan-Kiss et al, 2006;Stibal et al, 2007;Takeuchi et al, 2009;Lutz et al, 2015), (3) the invasion of non-native birds and mammals (Jonsdottir, 2005;Kelly et al, 2010;Miller and Ruiz, 2014;Ware et al, 2014), (4) the invasion of new plant species as human activity and tourism increases (Ware et al, 2014), and (5) an enhanced input of feces-derived organic material to soils from increasing populations of Barnacle Geese, Reindeer herds and other biota in Svalbard in response to climate warming (Michelutti et al, 2009;Moe et al, 2009;Luoto et al, 2015). However, there is considerable uncertainty in predicting the magnitude of future substrate deposition and, to our knowledge, no studies have made direct predictions based on estimations or empirical data.…”

Tracking marine alien species by ship movements

“…Invasion risks associated with shipping have been examined recently for specific recipient systems (6,12) and for a small group of species (13). Studies have identified high-risk invasion routes and invasion hotspots (14,15), but no previous study has tested a modeling approach that predicts both the identity and likelihood of establishment of alien species on a global scale.…”