Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight

Sparks, Adam H.; Forbes, Gregory A.; Hijmans, Robert J.; Garrett, Karen A.

doi:10.1111/gcb.12587

Cited by 75 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…[14] and Sparks et al . [15]. The first study uses current climate data to apply SIMCAST globally to produce a map of the number of required fungicide applications and it also relates the results to predictions by BLITECAST (model based on the estimation of leaf wetness [16]).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earlier occurrence and increased explanatory power of climate for the first incidence of potato late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans in Fennoscandia

et al. 2017

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BackgroundLate blight (caused by Phytophthora infestans) is a devastating potato disease that has been found to occur earlier in the season over the last decades in Fennoscandia. Up until now the reasons for this change have not been investigated. Possible explanations for this change are climate alterations, changes in potato production or changes in pathogen biology, such as increased fitness or changes in gene flow within P. infestans populations. The first incidence of late blight is of high economic importance since fungicidal applications should be typically applied two weeks before the first signs of late blight and are repeated on average once a week.MethodsWe use field observations of first incidence of late blight in experimental potato fields from five sites in Sweden and Finland covering a total of 30 years and investigate whether the earlier incidence of late blight can be related to the climate.ResultsWe linked the field data to meteorological data and found that the previous assumption, used in common late blight models, that the disease only develops at relative humidity levels above 90% had to be rejected. Rather than the typically assumed threshold relationship between late blight disease development and relative humidity we found a linear relationship. Our model furthermore showed two distinct responses of late blight to climate. At the beginning of the observation time (in Sweden until the early 90s and in Finland until the 2000s) the link between climate and first incidence was very weak. However, for the remainder of the time period the link was highly significant, indicating a change in the biological properties of the pathogen which could for example be a change in the dominating reproduction mode or a physiological change in the response of the pathogen to climate.ConclusionsThe study shows that models used in decision support systems need to be checked and re-parametrized regularly to be able to capture changes in pathogen biology. While this study was performed with data from Fennoscandia this new pathogen biology and late blight might spread to (or already be present at) other parts of the world as well. The strong link between climate and first incidence together with the presented model offers a tool to assess late blight incidence in future climates.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earlier occurrence and increased explanatory power of climate for the first incidence of potato late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans in Fennoscandia

et al. 2017

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“…The trend line (figure 2) of rainfall of March and April shows a steady increase that is also most likely to persist for some time to come. The implication of this on a tropical location like the Jos Plateau may manifest in obscure and uncertain growing seasons as well as an upsurge in pests and disease incidences (Hijmans, et al, 2000,Sparks et al, 2014). …”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Increased Incidences of Potato Late Blight on the Jos Plateau: A Case for Intercropping

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2014

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Abstract:Potato cultivation on the Jos Plateau is a multi-Billion Naira enterprise which is on the very brink of collapse due to upsurge in the incidences and severity of late blight a disease caused by Phytophtora infestans (Mont) DeBary. This paper highlighted the scope of the spread of this scourge by assessing the magnitude of loses due to the disease in four zones of the potato growing region of the Jos Plateau-Bokkos, Ampang, Heipang and Vwang. The production parameters studied were the land area under potato, average yield, proportion of potato produced through sole/mono cropping, severity of the late blight epidemic and the level of adaptation of the new varieties imported from Europe the Americas and Australia. The results revealed that Bokkos was the most important potato growing area in terms of total land area, adoption of new planting materials, and sole/mono cropping system of production. The incidences and severity of the potato late blight was most serious in Bokkos, followed by Ampang, Heipang and Vwang in that order. The average yield of potato tubers (kg/ha) was highest in Ampang and least in Heipang. A brief view of the weather reports from these areas shows erratic patterns of rainfall and rise in temperature which may be attributed to the general climate change. A major trend observed in the weather report is the increase in early rainfall (March-April) which farmers tend to explore for early planting with severe consequences. The increasing tendency to adopt mono cropping by out growers for the multinational seed and other Agro-based companies was highlighted and the attendant risks involved while making a case for mixed/inter cropping. Other benefits suggested for inter cropping were higher resource use efficiencies, security against total crop lost, reduction in the use of pesticides to control diseases and pests as well as favorable environmental effects like shading, erosion control and suppressing weeds.

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“…In addition, host vulnerability may increase in cases where climate change causes plant environmental stress. Increased frequency of heavy rainfall events and wet soil conditions could favor some root pathogens (Garrett et al 2006), and accelerate the spread of foliar diseases such as late blight (Phytophythora infestans), an important disease in potato production in the NE that benefits from wet conditions (Kaukoranta 1996;Sparks et al 2014). On the other hand, in years and regions where climate change leads to drier conditions, disease pressure could be reduced.…”

Section: Increasing Insect and Disease Pressurementioning

confidence: 99%

Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate

et al. 2017

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Climate change may both exacerbate the vulnerabilities and open up new opportunities for farming in the Northeastern USA. Among the opportunities are double-cropping and new crop options that may come with warmer temperatures and a longer frost-free period. However, prolonged periods of spring rains in recent years have delayed planting and offset the potentially beneficial longer frost-free period. Water management will be a serious challenge for Climatic Change (2018) Northeast farmers in the future, with projections for increased frequency of heavy rainfall events, as well as projections for more frequent summer water deficits than this historically humid region has experienced in the past. Adaptations to increase resilience to such changes include expanded irrigation capacity, modernized water monitoring and irrigation scheduling, farm drainage systems that collect excess rain into ponds for use as a water source during dry periods, and improved soil water holding capacity and drainage. Among the greatest vulnerabilities over the next several decades for the economically important perennial fruit crop industry of the region is an extended period of spring frost risk associated with warmer winter and early spring temperatures. Improved real-time frost warning systems, careful site selection for new plantings, and use of misting, wind machine, or other frost protection measures will be important adaptation strategies. Increased weed and pest pressure associated with longer growing seasons and warmer winters is another increasingly important challenge. Pro-active development of non-chemical control strategies, improved regional monitoring, and rapidresponse plans for targeted control of invasive weeds and pests will be necessary.

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Climate change may have limited effect on global risk of potato late blight

Cited by 75 publications

References 50 publications

Earlier occurrence and increased explanatory power of climate for the first incidence of potato late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans in Fennoscandia

Earlier occurrence and increased explanatory power of climate for the first incidence of potato late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans in Fennoscandia

Recent Increased Incidences of Potato Late Blight on the Jos Plateau: A Case for Intercropping

Unique challenges and opportunities for northeastern US crop production in a changing climate

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