Phytophthora infestans, the causal agent of late blight, is a major threat to potato production in northwestern Europe. Before 1980, the worldwide population of P. infestans outside Mexico appeared to be asexual and to consist of a single clonal lineage of A1 mating type characterized by a single genotype. It is widely believed that new strains migrated into Europe in 1976 and that this led to subsequent population changes including the introduction of the A2 mating type. The population characteristics of recently collected isolates in NW Europe show a diverse population including both mating types, sexual reproduction and oospores, although differences are observed between regions. Although it is difficult to find direct evidence that new strains are more aggressive, there are several indications from experiments and field epidemics that the aggressiveness of P. infestans has increased in the past 20 years. The relative importance of the different primary inoculum sources and specific measures for reducing their role, such as covering dumps with plastic and preventing seed tubers from becoming infected, is described for the different regions. In NW Europe, varieties with greater resistance tend not to be grown on a large scale. From the grower's perspective, the savings in fungicide input that can be achieved with these varieties are not compensated by the higher (perceived) risk of blight. Fungicides play a crucial role in the integrated control of late blight. The spray strategies in NW Europe and a table of the specific attributes of the most important fungicides in Europe are presented. The development and use of decision support systems (DSSs) in NW Europe are described. In The Netherlands, it is estimated that almost 40% of potato growers use recommendations based on commercially available DSS. In the Nordic countries, a new DSS concept with a fixed 7-day spray interval and a variable dose rate is being tested. In the UK, commercially available DSSs are used for c. 8% of the area. The validity of Smith Periods for the new population of P. infestans in the UK is currently being evaluated.

Plant pathogenic enterobacteria in the genera Pectobacterium and Dickeya (formerly classified as Erwinia) were isolated from diseased potato stems and tubers. The isolated bacteria were identified as P. atrosepticum, P. carotovorum and pathogens in the genus Dickeya with PCR tests. Furthermore, Dickeya strains were isolated from river water samples throughout the country. Phylogenetic analysis with 16S-23S rDNA intergenic spacer sequences suggested that the Dickeya strains could be divided into three groups, two of which were isolated from potato samples. Phylogenetic analysis with 16S rDNA sequences and growth at 39°C suggested that one of the groups corresponds to D. dianthicola, a quarantine pathogen in greenhouse cultivation of ornamentals, while two of the groups did not clearly resemble any of the previously characterised Dickeya species. Field trials with the strains indicated that D. dianthicolalike strains isolated from river samples caused the highest incidence of rotting and necrosis of potato stems, but some of the Dickeya strains isolated from potato samples also caused symptoms. The results showed that although P. atrosepticum is still the major cause of blackleg in Finland, virulent Dickeya strains were commonly present in potato stocks and rivers. This is the first report suggesting that Dickeya, originally known as a pathogen in tropical and warm climates, may cause diseases in potato in northern Europe.

Changes in the incidence and onset of potato late‐blight epidemics in Finland were investigated and compared with possible changes in climate, presence of soil‐borne inoculum, and aggressiveness of Phytophthora infestans populations. Datasets were constructed from leaf blight assessments in cultivar trials or fungicide tests carried out at eight experimental sites during the periods 1933–1962 and 1983–2002. Additional data were obtained from late‐blight monitoring projects carried out from 1991 to 2002. From 1998 to 2002, the risk of blight outbreak was 17‐fold higher compared with the periods 1933–62 and 1983–1997. Simultaneously, the outbreaks of the epidemics began 2–4 weeks earlier. The changes observed were associated with a climate more conducive to blight in the late 1990s. Lack of rotation also advanced blight epidemics by an average of 9 days in 1998–2002, but it did not have this effect in 1992–1997, suggesting that soil borne inoculum may not have been a significant threat to potato until the late 1990s. The aggressiveness of the P. infestans isolates seemed to have only minor effect on the onset of the epidemics after 1991, as the apparent infection rate remained unchanged despite weather conditions more favourable to late blight in the late 1990s. As a consequence of the more frequent and earlier epidemics, the sales of fungicides used against late blight in Finland increased 4‐fold from the 1980s to 2002.

In recent years in Finland, Fusarium infections in onions have increased, both in the field and in storage, and Fusarium species have taken the place of Botrytis as the worst pathogens causing post‐harvest rot of onion. To study Fusarium occurrence, samples were taken from onion sets, harvested onions and also from other plants grown in the onion fields. Isolates of five Fusarium species found in the survey were tested for pathogenicity on onion. Fusarium oxysporum was frequently found in onions and other plants, and, of the isolates tested, 31% caused disease symptoms and 15% caused growth stunting in onion seedlings. Fusarium proliferatum, a species previously not reported in Finland, was also identified. Over 50% of the diseased onion crop samples were infected with F. proliferatum, and all the F. proliferatum isolates tested were pathogenic to onion. Thus, compared to F. oxysporum, F. proliferatum seems to be more aggressive on onion. Also some of the F. redolens isolates were highly virulent, killing onion seedlings. Comparison of the translation elongation factor 1α gene sequences revealed that the majority of the aggressive isolates of F. oxysporum f. sp. cepae group together and are distinct from the other isolates. Incidence and relative proportions of the different Fusarium species differed between the sets and the mature bulbs. More research is required to determine to what extent Fusarium infections spoiling onions originate from infected onion sets rather than the field soil.

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Biochemical characterisation of Dickeya strains isolated from potato plants and river water samples in Finland showed that the majority of the strains were biovar 3. They thus resembled the strains recently isolated from potato in the Netherlands, Poland and Israel and form a new clade within the Dickeya genus. About half of the Finnish isolates resembling strains within this new clade were virulent and caused wilting, necrotic lesions and rotting of leaves and stems. Similar symptoms were caused by D. dianthicola strains isolated from one potato sample and from several river water samples. Frequently, the rotting caused by the Dickeya strains was visible in the upper parts of the stem, while the stem base was necrotic from the pith but hard and green on the outside, resulting in symptoms quite different from the blackleg caused by Pectobacterium atrosepticum. The presence of Dickeya in the symptomatic plants in the field assay was verified with a conventional PCR and with a real-time PCR test developed for the purpose. The virulent Dickeya strains reduced the yield of individual plants by up to 50% and caused rotting of the daughter tubers in the field and in storage. Management of Dickeya spp. in the potato production chain requires awareness of the symptoms and extensive knowledge about the epidemiology of the disease.

A total of 743 single-lesion isolates of Phytophthora infestans were collected in summer 2003 from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Most of the isolates were tested for mating type, and subsets were tested for sensitivity to fungicides and virulence (host specific pathogenicity). Approximately 60% of the isolates were A1 mating type in each country. Both mating types were present in 40% of the fields where more than one isolate was tested, indicating strong potential for sexual reproduction. The proportion of metalaxyl-resistant isolates dropped to under 15% from the 60% observed in the early 1990s in Norway and Finland, possibly due to lower selection pressure because of decreased use of metalaxyl. Propamocarb-HCl sensitivity remained unchanged in the Nordic countries compared to the situation in 1997 -2000 in Finland. Four isolates collected from Finland and Sweden were able to sporulate in the presence of this fungicide at a concentration of 1000 mg L -1. In Norway and Finland the frequencies of virulence factors and pathotypes remained nearly unchanged since the 1990s, but the mean number of virulence factors per isolate increased from 5·6 to 6·3. In Denmark and Sweden virulence factors 2 and especially 6 were more common than in Norway and Finland. In addition, in the Swedish population the frequencies of pathotypes were quite even while in other countries pathotype 1,3,4,7,10,11 was most prevalent.

A longer growing season and higher accumulated effective temperature sum (ETS) will improve crop production potential in Finland. The production potential of new or at present underutilised crops (e.g. maize (Zea mays L.), oilseed rape (Brassica napus L.), lucerne (Medicago sativa L.)) will improve and it will be possible to grow more productive varieties of the currently grown crops (spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), oats (Avena sativa L.)). Also cultivation of autumn sown crops could increase if winters become milder and shorter, promoting overwintering success. Climatic conditions may on the other hand become restrictive in many ways. For example, early season droughts could intensify because of higher temperatures and consequent higher evaporation rates. Current low winter temperatures and short growing season help restrict the development and spread of pests and pathogens, but this could change in the future. Longer growing seasons, warmer autumns and milder winters may initiate new problems with higher occurrences of weeds, pests and pathogens, including new types of viruses and virus vectors. Anoxia of overwintering crops caused by ice encasement, and physical damage caused by freezing and melting of water over the fields may also increase. In this study we identify the most likely changes in crop species and varieties in Finland and the pest and pathogen species that are most likely to create production problems as a result of climate change during this century.