Climate Change Influencing the Potential Distribution of a Brazilian Savanna Indicator Species

Abstract

The objective of this study was to model the potential effect of future climate change on the distribution of a tree species indicator of Cerrado. For the modeling, we used 488 occurrence points of the species and also bioclimatic variables corresponding to 2050 and 2070, for the more optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. All generated models were classified as consistent, getting an area under curve higher than 0.90. The current modeling of Connarus suberosus showed that 88% of the area with a high probability of species occurrence is inside the Cerrado domain. Future projections suggest losses in the environmental suitability area around 40.8% and 44.8% in the optimistic scenario, 61.6% and 81.6% in the pessimistic scenario considering 2050 and 2070, respectively. Furthermore, we found a tendency of the C. suberosus to move in the Atlantic Forest direction. This modeling is an alert that the C. suberosus will suffer from future climate change.

Responses of Neotropical Savannah Plant Species to Abiotic Stresses: A Structural and Functional Overview

“…Model-based studies predict changes in plant species distribution and loss in areas with greater biodiversity due to increased worldwide global temperature [97][98][99][100], also affecting the Neotropical savannah [100,101]. Chaves et al [102], in a study of a restricted plant species from the rupestrian field, showed that although some plants were no longer sensitive to the increase in temperature, they showed lower thermal tolerance and less plasticity compared to plant species of wide distribution, with a possible impact of global climate changes on this species.…”