Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

Shanley, Colin S.; Pyare, Sanjay; Goldstein, Michael I.; Alaback, Paul B.; Albert, David; Beier, Colin M.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Edwards, R. T.; Hood, Eran; Mackinnon, A. J.; McPhee, Megan V.; Patterson, Trista; Suring, Lowell H.; Tallmon, David A.; Wipfli, Mark S.

doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1355-9

Cited by 68 publications

(89 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…Identification of species and ecosystems that are particularly sensitive to climatic variability, along with the development of associated quantitative tools, can help expedite knowledge that is urgently needed to stem this conservation threat. In this regard, study of cold adapted alpine species that are especially sensitive to climate change (Dullinger et al., ; Gentili, Hemant, & Birks, ) and experiencing disproportionately rapid changes in climate (Christensen et al., ; Shanley et al., ), offer key opportunities to gain critical insights into broad‐scale, forthcoming effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios

White

Gregovich

Levi

2017

Global Change Biology

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Climate change represents a primary threat to species persistence and biodiversity at a global scale. Cold adapted alpine species are especially sensitive to climate change and can offer key "early warning signs" about deleterious effects of predicted change. Among mountain ungulates, survival, a key determinant of demographic performance, may be influenced by future climate in complex, and possibly opposing ways. Demographic data collected from 447 mountain goats in 10 coastal Alaska, USA, populations over a 37-year time span indicated that survival is highest during low snowfall winters and cool summers. However, general circulation models (GCMs) predict future increase in summer temperature and decline in winter snowfall. To disentangle how these opposing climate-driven effects influence mountain goat populations, we developed an age-structured population model to project mountain goat population trajectories for 10 different GCM/emissions scenarios relevant for coastal Alaska. Projected increases in summer temperature had stronger negative effects on population trajectories than the positive demographic effects of reduced winter snowfall. In 5 of the 10 GCM/representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the net effect of projected climate change was extinction over a 70-year time window (2015-2085); smaller initial populations were more likely to go extinct faster than larger populations. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that distributional shifts to higher elevation (i.e., "thermoneutral") summer range was unlikely to be a viable behavioral adaptation strategy; due to the conical shape of mountains, summer range was expected to decline by 17%-86% for 7 of the 10 GCM/RCP scenarios. Projected declines of mountain goat populations are driven by climate-linked bottom-up mechanisms and may have wide ranging implications for alpine ecosystems. These analyses elucidate how projected climate change can negatively alter population dynamics of a sentinel alpine species and provide insight into how demographic modeling can be used to assess risk to species persistence.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios

White

Gregovich

Levi

2017

Global Change Biology

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“…) and global climate change, that could affect salmon cohort strength in the years to come (Shanley et al. ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Economic Impacts of Humpback Whale Depredation on Hatchery‐Released Juvenile Pacific Salmon in Southeast Alaska

Chenoweth

Criddle

2019

Mar Coast Fish

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The goal of this study was to determine whether humpback whale Megaptera novaeangliae depredation on hatchery‐released juvenile salmon is affecting the economic productivity of hatcheries in Southeast Alaska. From 2010 to 2015, observers monitored five release sites in Chatham Strait, Alaska. Humpback whales were present at the release of 23 of 54 salmon cohorts (defined by release year, species, site, and release strategy). A linear regression model was used to determine whether humpback whale presence at a cohort release affected the proportion of that cohort that survived to harvest. The model included covariates related to management and environmental conditions. The lost fishing revenue for each cohort was determined using the model‐predicted marine survival with and without humpback whales and the average commercial value of the adult salmon. Marine survival of Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch was significantly lower for cohorts with humpback whale depredation, resulting in an estimated US$1 million of lost revenue per year (95% confidence interval = $747,500–1,205,000) associated with whale depredation (23% of observed ex‐vessel fishing revenue from these Coho Salmon cohorts). No significant effect was observed for depredation losses to releases of Chum Salmon O. keta or Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha, which tended to have low marine survival even in years of no observed whale depredation, possibly due to compensatory depredation from other sources. Despite Chum Salmon having the highest rates of whale depredation, there is no evidence to suggest that preventing humpback whale depredation alone would be sufficient to increase marine survival and fishing revenue for that species, although it may be necessary in concert with other measures.

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“…Also interesting, however, is the superposition of teleconnections upon anticipated long-term hydroclimatic regime changes. Under progressive warming, as rain-to-snow ratios rise, seasonal streamflow patterns in this region are likely to become increasingly characterized by an autumn-winter rainfall freshet and to exhibit a less pronounced spring-summer snowmelt freshet (e.g., [73]). Further, late-summer glacier melt contributions to flow will similarly change as glaciers continue to recede [43,64], which could initially take the form of an increased melt pulse but may eventually result in a flow decline (see also reviews by Jansson et al [36] and Moore et al [56]).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…River flow variability here influences the strength of density-driven coastal currents (e.g., Alaska Coastal Current [72]) and spawning migration survival of transboundary salmon runs (e.g., [26]). Additionally, runoff from these basins into the Gulf of Alaska (GOA), which typically exceeds 150 km 3 year −1 [31,57,60], has the potential to be substantially altered by changes in regional glacier volume [10,42,43] and shifts in the rain/snow fraction of winter precipitation [61,73]. Such climate-driven hydrological variability propagates downstream into coastal marine ecosystems, and the corresponding suite of terrestrial, aquatic, and marine environmental effects are likely to be profoundly seasonal [64].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal flows of international British Columbia-Alaska rivers: The nonlinear influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns

Fleming

Hood

Dahlke

et al. 2016

Advances in Water Resources

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a b s t r a c tThe northern portion of the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest (PCTR) is one of the least anthropogenically modified regions on earth and remains in many respects a frontier area to science. Rivers crossing the northern PCTR, which is also an international boundary region between British Columbia, Canada and Alaska, USA, deliver large freshwater and biogeochemical fluxes to the Gulf of Alaska and establish linkages between coastal and continental ecosystems. We evaluate interannual flow variability in three transboundary PCTR watersheds in response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO). Historical hydroclimatic datasets from both Canada and the USA are analyzed using an up-to-date methodological suite accommodating both seasonally transient and highly nonlinear teleconnections. We find that streamflow teleconnections occur over particular seasonal windows reflecting the intersection of specific atmospheric and terrestrial hydrologic processes. The strongest signal is a snowmelt-driven flow timing shift resulting from ENSO-and PDO-associated temperature anomalies. Autumn rainfall runoff is also modulated by these climate modes, and a glacier-mediated teleconnection contributes to a late-summer ENSO-flow association. Teleconnections between AO and freshet flows reflect corresponding temperature and precipitation anomalies. A coherent NPGO signal is not clearly evident in streamflow. Linear and monotonically nonlinear teleconnections were widely identified, with less evidence for the parabolic effects that can play an important role elsewhere. The streamflow teleconnections did not vary greatly between hydrometric stations, presumably reflecting broad similarities in watershed characteristics. These results establish a regional foundation for both transboundary water management and studies of long-term hydroclimatic and environmental change.Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America

Cited by 68 publications

References 77 publications

Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios

Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios

The Economic Impacts of Humpback Whale Depredation on Hatchery‐Released Juvenile Pacific Salmon in Southeast Alaska

Seasonal flows of international British Columbia-Alaska rivers: The nonlinear influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns

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