Climate change impacts on the vegetation carbon cycle of the Iberian Peninsula—Intercomparison of CMIP5 results

Aparício, Sara; Seixas, Júlia

doi:10.1002/2014jg002755

Cited by 7 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 46 publications

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“…In fact, the results of our work showed a general increase in the probability of occurrence of the most severe classes of FWI during the last years. Therefore, more intense and frequent extreme hot and dry conditions, linked to enhanced positive vegetation productivity trends (GPP/NPP and NDVI) in the Iberian Peninsula [60,61], may promote more fire events that have the potential to become more severe. In this context, a more extensive analysis regarding the wildfires' characteristics in Portugal over the last years, namely fire frequency, fire energy, and fire risk, but also elevation, fuel accumulation in ecosystems, and vegetation activity, is called for.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the Most Susceptible Regions to Fire in Portugal

Ermitão

Páscoa

Trigo

et al. 2023

Fire

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Mediterranean European countries, including Portugal, are considered fire-prone regions, being affected by fire events every summer. Nonetheless, Portugal has been recording large burned areas over the last 20 years, which are not only strongly associated with hot and dry conditions, but also with high fuel availability in the ecosystems. Due to recent catastrophic fire seasons, Portugal has been implementing preventive policies during the pre-fire season, which, in turn, can optimize combat strategies during the fire season. In this context, our study contributes to fire prevention by identifying the regions with the highest potential to burn. The application of a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to a range of climatological, ecological, and biophysical variables, either provided by remote sensing or reanalysis products, and known to be linked with diverse fire-vulnerability factors, allows the objective identification of the regions with the highest susceptibility to burn. The central and southernmost areas of Portugal present a stronger signal in the PCA, suggesting a likely high exposure to future fire events. The fuel accumulation over several months, in conjunction with elevation and fire weather conditions, are the terms out of the retained PCs that can explain most of the variability. The quality assessment performed for the burned areas in 2022 showed that they occurred in highly susceptible areas, highlighting the usefulness of the proposed methodology.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping the Most Susceptible Regions to Fire in Portugal

Ermitão

Páscoa

Trigo

et al. 2023

Fire

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“…Recently, to achieve carbon neutrality in most countries (van Soest et al 2021), studies have begun to focus on changes in vegetation or soil carbon stocks and their climate drivers (Aparício et al 2015, Wu et al 2018, Li et al 2021, as well as soil carbon sequestration (Ito et al 2020) of Land Use Model Intercomparison Project models (Lawrence et al 2016) under different climate and land use conditions in the future. However, few studies have compared the differences in the carbon sequestration capacity between vegetation and soil carbon, especially under the combined effects of future human socioeconomic and climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased forest coverage will induce more carbon fixation in vegetation than in soil during 2015–2060 in China based on CMIP6

Zhang

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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As components of terrestrial carbon sinks, vegetation and soil carbon pools are important for offsetting CO2 emissions. However, differences in their carbon sequestration capacities and their responses to global change in the future are poorly understood. This study assessed the changes in vegetation and soil carbon and their ratios and drivers under the SSP126 scenario from 2015 to 2060, using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations in China, a major carbon sink region in global terrestrial ecosystems. The content of vegetation carbon (29±1 PgC) was observed to be lower than that of soil carbon (113±23 PgC), and the ratio of vegetation to soil carbon was the highest in the subtropical-tropical monsoon climatic region (0.55±0.12). Moreover, the total stock of vegetation and soil carbon increased by 10±1 PgC during the study period, and the increase in vegetation carbon was 4.31 times that of soil carbon, because the responses of vegetation carbon stocks to increased forest coverage and atmospheric CO2 were greater than that of soil carbon stocks, especially in the subtropical-tropical and temperate monsoonal climatic regions. However, bare land encroachment on grasslands reduced their increments in the temperate monsoonal and high-cold Tibetan Plateau climatic regions. Furthermore, compared with SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, vegetation and soil carbon sinks can offset a greater amount of carbon emissions in 2060 under the SSP126 scenario, accounting for 53% of all carbon emissions, offsetting 60%–79% of carbon emissions from China under its policy of increasing forest coverage. The study revealed the important role of afforestation in increasing ecosystem carbon stocks, additionally, grassland conservation and deep reductions in carbon emissions cannot be ignored in the future. This study provides a basis for determining the response of vegetation and soil carbon to environmental factors and the realization of net-zero emissions globally.

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“…Climate change affects vegetation dormancy onset date, timing of bud burst, net primary production (NPP), gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Nemani et al, 2003;Scholze et al, 2006;Pennington and Collins, 2007;Anderson-Teixeira et al, 2011;Gang et al, 2013;Peng et al, 2013;Zhang et al, 2013;Williams et al, 2014;Piao et al, 2015;Wang et al, 2015). In addition, future water cycle and ecosystems are affected by the combined forces from natural environment (e.g., climate and land surface properties) and socio-economics (e.g., economic development and population increases) (Cox et al, 2000;Somerville and Briscoe, 2001;Sitch et al, 2008;Alkama et al, 2013;Piontek et al, 2014;Schewe et al, 2014;Zhang, Y. et al, 2014;Aparício et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting water yield and ecosystem productivity across the United States by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate data

Sun

Cohen

et al. 2016

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and ecosystem adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) using dynamically downscaled climate data of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031-2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979-2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the coterminous US (CONUS). Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P ) of 45 mm yr −1 (6 %), 1.8 • C increase in temperature (T ), 37 mm yr −1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr −1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 gC m −2 yr −1 (9 %) increase in GPP. We found a large spatial variability in response to climate change across the CONUS 12-digit HUC watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases all variables evaluated. Over half of the watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest, would see an increase in annual Q (> 100 mm yr −1 or 20 %). In addition, we also evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or two-digit HUCs. The study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results may be useful for policy-makers and land managers to formulate appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

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Climate change impacts on the vegetation carbon cycle of the Iberian Peninsula—Intercomparison of CMIP5 results

Cited by 7 publications

References 46 publications

Mapping the Most Susceptible Regions to Fire in Portugal

Mapping the Most Susceptible Regions to Fire in Portugal

Increased forest coverage will induce more carbon fixation in vegetation than in soil during 2015–2060 in China based on CMIP6

Projecting water yield and ecosystem productivity across the United States by linking an ecohydrological model to WRF dynamically downscaled climate data

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