Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections

Brêda, João Paulo Lyra Fialho; Paiva, Rodrigo Cauduro Dias de; Collischon, Walter; Bravo, Juan Martín; Siqueira, Vinícius Alencar; Steinke, Elisa Bolzan

doi:10.1007/s10584-020-02667-9

Cited by 86 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…This severe erosion has contributed to generate, for example, a reduction in food production of 8,170 Mt/year in Brazil (Sartori et al., 2019). Researches have shown that climate changes will impact the land use/land cover (Almagro et al., 2017; Brêda et al., 2020; Cohen et al., 2014) and that the implementation of many dams will affect the connectivity of water flows even more, sediments, nutrients, and aquatic organisms (Forsberg et al., 2017; Grill et al., 2019; Latrubesse et al., 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sediment Flows in South America Supported by Daily Hydrologic‐Hydrodynamic Modeling

Fagundes

Fan

Paiva

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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Suspended sediments (SSs) contribute to the maintenance of several ecosystems. However, intense soil erosion can lead to environmental, social, and economic impacts. South America (SA) has very high erosion and sediment transport rates. Here, we present a detailed description of the spatio‐temporal dynamics of natural SS flows in SA using the continental sediment model MGB‐SED AS. We evaluate the model with daily in situ data from 595 stations, information from regional studies and a global model. The model performance analysis showed that, in general, there was a better agreement between simulated and observed data than with the information found in regional studies and of the global model. The use of the hydrodynamic propagation method has allowed a better representation of sediment flows in rivers and floodplains. Based in the calibrated model results, SA delivers 1.00 × 109 t/year of SS to the oceans, in which the Amazon (4.36 × 108 t/year), Orinoco (1.37 × 108 t/year), La Plata (1.11 × 108 t/year), and Magdalena (3.26 × 107) rivers are the main suppliers. The floodplains play an essential role, retaining about 12% (2.40 × 108 t/year) of the SS loads reaching the rivers. In this study, data sets related to SS flows in SA were generated and can be used to support other large‐scale researches or policymakers and stakeholders for adequate management of continental land use.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sediment Flows in South America Supported by Daily Hydrologic‐Hydrodynamic Modeling

Fagundes

Fan

Paiva

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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“…Finally, the potential effects of climate change on wetland ET and vegetation must be addressed. Although oodplain forests generally have deep roots 20 , uncertainties remain regarding their ability to cope with the precipitation reductions (by some estimates, up to 20%) and concomitant decreases in water availability that are projected to a ict all equatorial and tropical South American wetlands by the end of the century 28,70 . Such decreases could lead equatorial wetlands to face a tropical climate regime, which would likely decrease ET.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Patterns and drivers of evapotranspiration in South American wetlands

Fleischmann

Laipelt

Papa

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key process linking surface and atmospheric energy budgets, yet its drivers and patterns across wetlandscapes are poorly understood worldwide. Here we assess the ET dynamics in 12 wetlands complexes across South America, revealing major differences under temperate, tropical, and equatorial climates. While net radiation is a dominant driver of ET seasonality in most environments, flooding also contributes strongly to ET in tropical and equatorial wetlands, especially in meeting the evaporative demand. Moreover, significant water losses through wetlands and ET differences between wetlands and uplands occur in temperate, water-limited environments and in highly flooded areas such as the Pantanal, where slow river flood propagation drives the ET dynamics. Finally, floodplain forests produce the greatest ET in all environments except the Central Amazon, where upland forests sustain high rates year round. Our findings highlight the unique hydrological functioning and ecosystem services provided by wetlands on a continental scale.

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“…Future projections of evapotranspiration vary substantially across regions. By 2100, Brêda et al (2020) projected a decrease in overall evapotranspiration in South America, whereas Sullivan et al (2019) projected increased evapotranspiration in North America. Other studies (see Mueller and Seneviratne 2014;Sullivan et al 2019) reported substantial biases in evapotranspiration simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evapotranspiration and water availability response to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa

Ajjur

Al-Ghamdi

2021

Climatic Change

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Quantifying the impact of climate change on evapotranspiration is necessary for devising accurate water and energy budgets in light of global warming. Nevertheless, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), little has been done to bridge this gap. This study, then, implements Penman and Budyko approaches to climatic data retrieved from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to assess evapotranspiration and water availability evolutions through the twenty-first century. Outcomes reveal that the MENA region is indeed vulnerable to a surge in temperature, which can increase evapotranspiration losses and decrease water availability. Under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP2-4.5), the potential evapotranspiration (PET) has been projected to increase throughout the MENA region by up to 0.37 mm per year during the middle of the twenty-first century (2021–2050) and by up to 0.51 mm per year during the end of the twenty-first century (2071–2100). Meanwhile, the actual evapotranspiration (AET) has been projected to increase by up to 0.3 (~0.2) mm per year before 2050 (2100). The trends in both projections (PET and AET) are exaggerated under SSP5-8.5. The analysis predicted a shortage of water availability (precipitation—AET), which is alarming for most MENA regions. Relative to the reference period (1981–2010), the decline in annual water availability would reach 26 (62) mm by 2100 under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5). The rise in temperatures appears to be the principal reason for MENA and water availability responses. This study’s outcomes can facilitate accurate and realistic predictions related to evapotranspiration and water availability, which are key elements in not only managing water resources but also in devising effective climate change mitigation and adaptation plans.

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Climate change impacts on South American water balance from a continental-scale hydrological model driven by CMIP5 projections

Cited by 86 publications

References 55 publications

Sediment Flows in South America Supported by Daily Hydrologic‐Hydrodynamic Modeling

Sediment Flows in South America Supported by Daily Hydrologic‐Hydrodynamic Modeling

Patterns and drivers of evapotranspiration in South American wetlands

Evapotranspiration and water availability response to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa

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