Climate change impacts on Namibia's natural resources and economy

Abstract

Climate change is likely to exacerbate the dry conditions already experienced in southern Africa. When rainfall does come, it is likely to be in bursts of greater intensity, leading to erosion and flood damage. However, these predictions have had very little influence on policy in southern African countries. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model simulations for Namibia indicate that over 20 years, annual losses to the Namibian economy could be up to 5% of GDP, due to the impact that climate change will have on its natural resources alone. This will affect the poorest people the most, with resulting constraints on employment opportunities and declining wages, especially for unskilled labour in rural areas. Namibia must take steps to ensure that all its policies and activities are 'climate proofed' and that it has a strategy to deal with displaced farmers and farm workers. The need to mainstream climate change into policies and planning is clear, and it is the responsibility of industrialized nations, who have largely created the problem of climate change, to help Namibia and other vulnerable countries cope with climate change impacts and plan for a climate-constrained future. Le changement climatique risque d'exacerber les conditions de sécheresse déjà présentes en Afrique du sud. Les rares épisodes de pluie se manifesteraient en qualité d'averses d'intensité d'autant plus accrue, produisant des dégâts d'érosion et d'inondation. Cependant, ces prédictions ont peu de traction politique dans les paysd'Afrique du sud. Des simulations d'équilibre général calculable pour la Namibie indiquent que dans plus de 20 ans, les pertes annuelles pour l'économie namibienne pourraient être de l'ordre de 5% du PNB, uniquement à cause de l'impact potentiel du changement climatique sur ses ressources naturelles. Ceci affecterait surtout les pauvres, produisant des contraintes sur les opportunités d'emploi et une baisse des salaires, surtout pour la main d'oeuvre non qualifiée dans les zones rurales. La Namibie doit prendre des mesures pour faire en sorte que toutes ses politiques et mesures soient « climatiquement sûres » et qu'une stratégie soit en place pour aborder le problème de déplacement des fermiers et de la main d'oeuvre agricole. Le besoin d'intégration du changement climatique aux politiques et à l'aménagement est clair, et ce sont les nations industrialisées, ayant largement créé le problème du changement climatique, qui devraient avoir la responsabilité d'aide à la Namibie et autres pays vulnérables dans la lutte contre les impacts du changement climatique et l'anticipation d'un futur affecté climatiquement.

The Impact of Climate Change on Agro-Ecological Based Livelihoods in Africa: A Review

“…The impact of climate change on these sensitive sectors is therefore likely to have remarkable effects in the whole economy. Long term temperature records in Namibia show an approximate warming rate of about 0.2C per decade (Reid et al, 2008). This equates to three times the global mean rate of increase.…”

“…The combined net effect of warming temperatures and reduced rainfall will be water shortages since evaporation rates would increase for already limited water. These climatic changes are also likely to lead to increasing desertification and a disappearance of grasslands and shrubs for cattle grazing endangering livelihoods based on these resources (Reid et al, 2008). Reid et al (2008) further note that much of the land used for grazing in Namibia is already marginal.…”

“…The irony of the climate change phenomenon is that it is the poor countries that have contributed little to the problem of global warming that are likely to suffer the most from climate change, since they have the least capacity to adapt to its effects. African countries contributed 4.6% of cumulative global carbon emissions from 1950 to 2000, and now emit only 3.5% of the total' (Reid, Sahlen, Stage, & MacGregor, 2008). Current evidence points to the fact that local peoples will suffer the brunt of the negative effects of climate change leading to severe complications in their livelihood patterns and a worsening of poverty levels (Devkota, Bajracharya, Maraseni, Cockfield, & Upadhyay, 2011).…”

“…In their study focussing on Zimbabwe and Zambia, Mubaya et al (2012) conclude that 'there appears to be an increasing trend towards a late start to the rain season, prolonged mid-season droughts, and shorter growing seasons in Southern Africa.' Reid et al (2008) examined the actual and potential impacts of climate change on Namibia's natural resources and the economy. They note that Namibia's economy depends substantially on the contribution of agriculture and fisheries to the Gross Domestic Product.…”

Climate and forest cover changes in district Skardu, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan: A Community Perspective

“…It is therefore, Theory of Himalayan Environmental Degradation 'continues to influence national environmental policies in the region (Blaikie and Muldavin, 2004). Climate change has supplemented the erosion of natural cohesion and rich natural resources (Reid et al 2008). Such an invisible fueling can transform agriculture lands into deserts and biodiversity losses (Foley et al 2011).…”