Climate change impacts on migration of Pinus koraiensis during the Quaternary using species distribution models

Shitara, Takuto; Fukui, Shunsuke; Matsui, Tetsuya; Momohara, Arata; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Ohashi, Haruka; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Kamijo, Takashi

doi:10.1007/s11258-021-01147-z

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 76 publications

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“…Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely adopted to study the impacts of individual ecology and climate change on the potential geographic distribution of species [17,18]. Such models are also increasingly playing an important role in inferring the potential geographic distribution of species by using changes of environmental variables, and they have been widely used to simulate the potential geographic distribution of rare and endangered species in recent years [19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

et al. 2022

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Pteroceltis tatarinowii (Pteroceltis: Ulmaceae) is a deciduous tree that has a cultivation history of more than 2000 years in China. As an excellent afforestation tree species and rare and endangered tertiary relic plant, P. tatarinowii has high ecological protection value. Due to the forest destruction caused by predatory logging and natural environmental factors, the population of P. tatarinowii in China has decreased significantly. In this study, the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii in China under climate change was predicted using MaxEnt model and ArcGIS based on 223 effective distribution points of P. tatarinowii and 11 environmental variables. The results showed that: (1) the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model was extremely high, and the areas under curve (AUC) value of the training data was 0.936; The area of the potential suitable habitat area of P. tatarinowii under current climate condition was 180.84×104 km2, and mainly located in the central and southeast regions of China. (2) The domain environmental variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P. tatarinowii were min temperature of coldest month (12.1~22.7°C), isothermality (26.6~35.8), mean diurnal range 6.9~9.3°C and precipitation of wettest month (189.5 ~955.5 mm). (3) In 2050s and 2070s, compared with current (4.19×104 km2), the area of highly suitable habitat will increase by 0.2%-0.3% (RCP2.6) and 1.22%-3.84% (RCP8.5) respectively. while the poorly, moderately and total suitable habitats will decrease. The gravity center of P. tatarinowii showed a trend of migration to higher latitudes and northern regions in the future. These results will provide theoretical basis for cultivation management and resource protection of P. tatarinowii.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

et al. 2022

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“…Following the LGM, a strong inflow of warm current promoted snowfall in this region. Contrary to the shrinking distribution of plants susceptible to snow breakage, such as Pinus koraiensis (Shitara et al, 2021), the distributions of many snow‐dependent plants, such as Fagus crenata (Tsukada, 1982a), expanded in the Holocene, along with the formation of heavy snow environments. Therefore, changes in the snowfall regime from the Last Glacial Period to Holocene likely produced a significant impact on past population dynamics of snow‐dependent plants.…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 98%

Genetic consequences of Last Glacial–Holocene changes in snowfall regime in Arnica mallotopus populations: A plant confined to heavy‐snow areas of Japan

Masuda,

Setoguchi,

Nagasawa

et al. 2024

American J of Botany

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PremiseSnow is an important environmental factor affecting plant distribution. Past changes in snowfall regimes may have controlled the demographies of snow‐dependent plants. However, our knowledge of changes in the distribution and demographies of such plants is limited because of the lack of fossil records.MethodsPopulation genetic and landscape genetic analyses were used to investigate the response of population dynamics of Arnica mallotopus (Asteraceae)—a plant confined to heavy‐snow areas of Japan—to changes in snowfall regimes from the Last Glacial Period to the Holocene.ResultsThe population genetic analysis suggested that the four geographic lineages diverged during the Last Glacial Period. The interaction between reduced snowfall and lower temperatures during this period likely triggered population isolation in separate refugia. Subpopulation differentiation in the northern group was lower than in the southern group. Our ecological niche model predicted that the current distribution was patchy in the southern region; that is, the populations were isolated by topologically flat and climatically unsuitable lowlands. The landscape genetic analysis suggested that areas with little snowfall acted as barriers to the Holocene expansion of species distribution and continued limiting gene flow between local populations.ConclusionsThese findings indicate that postglacial population responses vary among regions and are controlled by environmental and geographic factors. Thus, changes in snowfall regime played a major role in shaping the distribution and genetic structure of the snow‐dependent plant.

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“…This is why the MaxEnt model has been widely used since its inception. Petltpierre et al [20], Shitara et al [21] and Jiang Yi fan [22] research shows that the MaxEnt model is more effective than other species distribution models, and the prediction accuracy of other models has been compared and validated accordingly. The MaxEnt model has the highest prediction accuracy among all models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Potential Suitable Distribution of Endangered Medicinal of <i>Paeonia rockii</i> under Climate Change Scenarios

Lan¹,

Chen²,

Pan³

et al. 2023

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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Paeonia rockii has been a traditional medicinal material from time immemorial. It is an important plant resource of ethnic medicine and chinese herbal medicine. It has unique effects on heat and cool blood, promoting blood circulation and dispersing blood stasis, analgesia and promoting menstruational flow. It is also a first-class protected plant. With the increasing demand for the bark and roots of P. rockii in China's medicinal market, the continuous high-intensity and disorderly excavation has led to a sharp decline in wild resources. P. rockii is in imminent danger and needs to be saved and protected urgently. In this study, the distribution records of P. rockii in China, combined with environmental factors, are used to simulate the current potential distribution area of P. rockii through MaxEnt model. The environmental factors affecting the distribution of P. rockii are obtained by using the contribution rate of environmental factors and a jackknife test analysis, and the appropriate value of environmental factors is determined by using the response curve. The results show that the AUC value of test set data is 0.985 and that of training set data is 0.987. The prediction accuracy of the Maxent model is extremely high and the simulation effect is very good. At present, the high suitable areas of P. rockii are mainly distributed in the shape of cake in Southern Ningxia, southern Gansu and southern Shanxi, accounting for 15.58% of the total suitable areas. The most important environmental factor affecting the geographical distribution of P. rockii is the altitude; Under the future climate change scenario, the total suitable area of P. rockii shows a decreasing trend, among which the area of high suitable area shows

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Climate change impacts on migration of Pinus koraiensis during the Quaternary using species distribution models

Cited by 10 publications

References 76 publications

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

Potential geographic distribution of relict plant Pteroceltis tatarinowii in China under climate change scenarios

Genetic consequences of Last Glacial–Holocene changes in snowfall regime in Arnica mallotopus populations: A plant confined to heavy‐snow areas of Japan

Simulation of Potential Suitable Distribution of Endangered Medicinal of <i>Paeonia rockii</i> under Climate Change Scenarios

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