Climate change impacts on mass movements — Case studies from the European Alps

Stoffel, Markus; Tiranti, Davide; Huggel, Christian

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.02.102

Cited by 217 publications

(133 citation statements)

References 90 publications

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“…Landslides are triggered by a number of factors, including earthquakes (Keefer 2002;Malamud et al 2004;Meunier et al 2008), rainfall (Iverson 2000;Zêzere et al 2005;Guzzetti et al 2007;Keefer and Larsen 2007;Marques et al 2008), temperature change (Dehn and Buma 1999;Chemenda et al 2005), glacial recession and permafrost degradation (Dramis et al 1995;Stoffel et al 2014) and anthropogenic factors such as the removal of slope toes at road cuts (Barnard et al 2001). For landslides, the hydro-meteorological trigger is often rainfall (Jakob and Weatherly 2003;Farahmand and Aghakouchak 2013), and empirical rainfall thresholds are often used to define minimum triggering conditions for landslides (Peruccacci et al 2012); however these are often localized, and depend greatly on the quality of rainfall data (Gariano et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landslides and synoptic weather trends in the European Alps

2016

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Landslides present a substantial geomorphological hazard in Alpine regions and there are expectations that climate change will alter their frequency and magnitude in the future. Understanding the spatial distribution and timing of landslides in the context of past change is therefore necessary if we are to assess their future behaviour. Using a regional landslide inventory for the European Alps we analyse the influence of weather types, specifically the COST733 database, on landslides. Monte Carlo permutation tests are used to assess which weather types are most likely associated with landslides. Weather types with high precipitation are consistent with more landslides, although there are also seasonal differences. Over the duration of the COST733 catalogue there has been a significant decrease in the number of days with weather types associated with low frequencies of landslides. During the spring and autumn months, the trend in observed landslide frequency and weather types are well matched. However while there is potential for weather typing to be used as a proxy for future landslide frequency, other external factors must be carefully considered.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Landslides and synoptic weather trends in the European Alps

2016

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“…Changes in heavy summer precipitation is expected to reduce the number of debris flows in the Massif des Ecrins, France (Jomelli et al 2009). For the Swiss Alps, Stoffel et al (2014) also found a decrease in intense summer precipitation, although the authors discuss the possibility of unprecedented debris flows due to changes in stability of rock glaciers. Melchiorre and Frattini (2012), using changes in extreme precipitation from a variety of climate models, found a wide spread of future results and concluded that accurate quantification of changes in the number of debris flows was not possible.…”

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confidence: 95%

“…duration rainfall (Schneuwly-Bollschweiler and Stoffel 2012;Stoffel et al 2014;van den Heuvel et al 2016). Under future climate change, it is likely that increases in extreme rainfall will alter debris flow frequency (Winter et al 2010).…”

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confidence: 99%

Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate

et al. 2016

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Future trends in debris flow activity are constructed based on bias-corrected climate change projections using two meteorological proxies: daily precipitation and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) combined with specific humidity for two Alpine areas. Along with a comparison between proxies, future number of days with debris flows are analyzed with respect to different regional and global climate models, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and area for quantile mapping. Two different base periods are also analyzed, as debris flows were observed on only 6 (17) days between 1950 and 1979, yet on 18 (49) days between 1980 and 2009 for Fella River, NE Italy (Barcelonnette, SE French Alps). For both areas, future climate projections vary between no change up to an increase of 6.0 % per decade in days with debris flow occurrences towards the end of 21st century. In Barcelonnette, the base period and proxy have a bigger impact on the future number of debris flow days than the climate model or RCP used. In Fella River, the base period, RCP, and proxy used define the future range. Therefore the selection of proxy, base period and downscaling technique should be carefully considered for future climate change impact studies concerning debris flow activity and associated fast-moving landslides.

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“…The impact of landslides induced by glacier and permafrost degradation in cold regions on the topography, geological environment, water resources, and on biodiversity; and the role of climate, a main factor influencing landslide movement, in the evolution of landslides in cold areas have been studied (Fischer et al 2013;Haeberli 2013;Kliem et al 2013;Starnberger et al 2013;Ballantyne et al 2014;Graband Linde 2014;Nussbaumer et al 2014). However, due to a lack of monitoring data, the majority of these studies were broad scale (Stoffel et al 2014). Currently, there have been no reports on the mechanisms, movement characteristics, and patterns of landslides induced by the combined effect of permafrost thawing and extreme weather events due to climate change and geological conditions (Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Retrospective and Prospects for Cold Regions Landslide Research (2012–2016) (WCoE 2014–2017, IPL-132, IPL-167, IPL-203, CRLN)

Shan¹,

Guo²

2017

Advancing Culture of Living With Landslides

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For nearly 100 years, the average temperature of the global surface has showed a consistent warming trend. Climate change and extreme weather events causing landslides are rising, especially landslides in cold regions, and the topic has become a hot issue in landslide research. With the support of ICL and the Chinese government, based on highway construction projects in Heilongjiang Province (China), Prof. Shan and his group (Institute of Cold Regions Science and Engineering, North East Forestry University, China) conducted thematic studies focusing on environmental and engineering geology problems in cold regions in the context of climate change, such as IPL132, IPL167, and IPL203. These studies attracted the interest of international colleagues, then Chinese colleagues, together with researchers from Russia, Canada, Japan, Italy and Czech Republic, together organized the ICL-cold regions landslide network (ICL-CRLN). In ICL-CRLN researchers could exchange research information and results, and so promote the development of landslide research in cold regions. In 2014, IPL-GPC approved the establishment of IPL-WCoE: Research Center of Cold Regions Landslide, so landslide research in cold regions came into a new stage of development. This article is a summary and outlook of these activities.

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Climate change impacts on mass movements — Case studies from the European Alps

Cited by 217 publications

References 90 publications

Landslides and synoptic weather trends in the European Alps

Landslides and synoptic weather trends in the European Alps

Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate

Retrospective and Prospects for Cold Regions Landslide Research (2012–2016) (WCoE 2014–2017, IPL-132, IPL-167, IPL-203, CRLN)

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