Landslides and synoptic weather trends in the European Alps

Abstract

Landslides present a substantial geomorphological hazard in Alpine regions and there are expectations that climate change will alter their frequency and magnitude in the future. Understanding the spatial distribution and timing of landslides in the context of past change is therefore necessary if we are to assess their future behaviour. Using a regional landslide inventory for the European Alps we analyse the influence of weather types, specifically the COST733 database, on landslides. Monte Carlo permutation tests are used to assess which weather types are most likely associated with landslides. Weather types with high precipitation are consistent with more landslides, although there are also seasonal differences. Over the duration of the COST733 catalogue there has been a significant decrease in the number of days with weather types associated with low frequencies of landslides. During the spring and autumn months, the trend in observed landslide frequency and weather types are well matched. However while there is potential for weather typing to be used as a proxy for future landslide frequency, other external factors must be carefully considered.

Temperature signal in suspended sediment export from an Alpine catchment

“…Huggel et al, 2012;Zerathe et al, 2014;Micheletti et al, 2015;Palazón and Navas, 2016;Wood et al, 2016). The premise behind this work is that to explain impacts of changes in climate on Alpine catchment suspended sediment yield, it is necessary to consider both transport capacity and sediment supply.…”

Meteorological Patterns Linked to Landslide Triggering in Asturias (NW Spain): A Preliminary Analysis

“…The characterization of meteorological synoptic triggering conditions has been addressed through several studies, including those developed in British Columbia (Canada) [16], in Serra do Mar (Brazil) [17], in Italy [18], in the European Alps [19] and in Portugal [20]. Moreover, other authors [21,22] have related the occurrence of landslides with atmospheric patterns at a global scale, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation.…”

Comparison of landslide forecasting services in Piedmont (Italy) and Norway, illustrated by events in late spring 2013

“…In 2005, Trigo et al (2005) found connections between the NAO index and the occurrence of landslides in Portugal. Wood et al (2016) investigated the synoptic weather trends and landslide in the European Alps. The meteorological control on the distribution of debris flows in Iceland was also investigated by Decaulne and Saemundsson (2007).…”