Climate change impacts on irrigated maize in Mediterranean climates: Evaluation of double cropping as an emerging adaptation alternative

Meza, Francisco; Silva, Daniel; Vigil, Hernán

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2008.03.005

Cited by 125 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…However, yields will be affected in most sites. The results show that the decrease of ET in this period is greater than the reduction of maize's yield, coinciding with previous studies concerning the Mediterranean area (Meza et al, 2008).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Impact of climate change on maize’s water needs, yields and profitability under various water prices in Spain

Rey

Garrido

Mínguez

et al. 2011

Span. j. agric. res.

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Available water resources are expected to diminish in the Iberian Peninsula as a result of climate change (CC). Agricultural water use represents about 70% of all water uses in Spain. This paper uses a combination of an ensemble of climate change and crop models to analyze the impacts on maize's water needs, yields and economic profitability under various water prices. Maize's evapotranspiration (ET), irrigation needs and yield projections under CC are compared with those of current climate in nine sites of Spain. With these simulated data, maize's and water's prices are included in a stochastic model to simulate the crop's net margin, both under CC and current climate conditions. An adaptation strategy potentially useful for maize in Spain is also studied. Results show that such adaptation can reduce negative CC impact on yields. However, decreases in ET and irrigation needs will be lower with than without adaptation. This creates an ambiguous situation which can be affected or solved with water pricing policies. With higher water tariffs, crop's profitability can drop to negative levels, which may result in the abandoning of the crop in many areas. CC and water policies must be closely coordinated to ensure efficient water use and crops' profitability.Additional key words: adaptation; evapotranspiration; net margin; Regional Climate Models; uncertainty; Zea mays L. ResumenImpacto del cambio climático en el rendimiento y en las necesidades hídricas del maíz, y su rentabilidad bajo diferentes precios del agua en España La disponibilidad de recursos hídricos en la Península Ibérica va a disminuir como consecuencia del cambio climá-tico (CC). En España, el regadío representa cerca del 70% de la demanda total de agua. Este trabajo utiliza un conjunto de modelos climáticos y de cultivo para analizar el impacto en las necesidades hídricas del maíz, en su rendimiento, y en su margen neto bajo diferentes tarifas de agua. Las proyecciones de rendimiento, evapotranspiración (ET) y riego del maíz en el clima futuro han sido comparadas con las del clima actual en nueve zonas de España. También se han evaluado los datos relativos a una posible estrategia de adaptación de este cultivo. Los resultados muestran que esta estrategia puede reducir los impactos negativos del CC en el rendimiento del maíz. Sin embargo, la ET y la necesidad de riego serán mayores con adaptación que sin ella. Esto crea un efecto ambiguo, que puede verse afectado o resolverse con políticas de tarifación del agua. Con mayores niveles de tarifas, debido a una mayor escasez de recursos hídri-cos disponibles consecuencia del CC, la rentabilidad del maíz puede llegar a caer hasta valores negativos, lo que llevaría a su abandono en algunas zonas. Las políticas de CC y de agua deben estar bien coordinadas con el fin de asegurar la eficiencia del uso del agua, y la rentabilidad de los cultivos.Palabras clave adicionales: adaptación; evapotranspiración; incertidumbre; margen neto; Modelos Regionales de Clima; Zea mays L.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 79%

Impact of climate change on maize’s water needs, yields and profitability under various water prices in Spain

Rey

Garrido

Mínguez

et al. 2011

Span. j. agric. res.

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“…LAI decreased with delayed sowing {%RMSE=59.9 (Nov. 20), 56.7 (Dec. 15) and 53.8 (Jan. 09)}. Meza et al (2008) reported reduction in leaf area index of maize crop with delayed sowings by using CERES-maize model. In respect of HI the data of simulated and observed values are in close proximity to each other with crop sown on 20 th November (t=-3.9; %RMSE=1.9) followed by rest of the sowing dates.…”

Section: Fig 5 Comparison Between Measured and Simulated Values Formentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of CSM-CERES-wheat in simulating wheat yield and its attributes with different sowing environments in Tarai region of Uttarakhand

Pal

Rawat

Singh

et al. 2015

JANS

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However, variety PBW -343 showed close proximity between simulated and observed outcomes with all sowing dates. The percent root mean square error (% RMSE) values ranged from 5.9 -15.6%, 2.2 -7.6% for days to attain anthesis and physiological maturity, respectively. Moreover, %RMSE and t-value ranged from 5.7 -12.2% (t= -4.5 to 1.8), 1.6 -3.3% (t= -4.1 to 4.5) and 1.9 -5.8% (t= -3.7 to 1.5) for product weight, vegetative weight and product harvest index, respectively. Inspite of that, model fails to simulate maximum leaf area index having % RMSE from 53.2 -62.9%. These results indicate that CERES-Wheat model can be used as a tool to support decision-making for wheat production in Tarai region of Uttarakhand.

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“…The benefits of different adaptation strategies have often been compared by their relative impact on yield (e.g. Meza et al 2008;Lobell et al 2008;Challinor et al 2009). …”

Section: Modelling Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

Beveridge

Challinor

2018

Climatic Change

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A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Cropclimate modelling and place-based research on adaptation were strategically reviewed and analysed to identify areas of commonality, differences, and potential learning opportunities to enhance the relevance of both disciplines through interdisciplinary approaches. Cropmodelling studies have projected a 7-15% mean yield change with adaptation compared to a non-adaptation baseline (Nature Climate Change 4:1-5, 2014). Of the 17 types of adaptation strategy identified in this study as place-based adaptations occurring within Central America, only five were represented in crop-climate modelling literature, and these were as follows: fertiliser, irrigation, change in planting date, change in cultivar and area cultivated. The breath and agency of real-life adaptation compared to its representation in modelling studies is a source of error in climate impact simulations. Conversely, adaptation research that omits assessment of future climate variability and impact does not enable to provide sustainable adaptation strategies to local communities so risk maladaptation. Integrated and participatory methods can identify and reduce these sources of uncertainty, for example, stakeholder's engagement can identify locally relevant adaptation pathways. We propose a research agenda that uses methodological approaches from both the modelling and place-based approaches to work towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation.

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Climate change impacts on irrigated maize in Mediterranean climates: Evaluation of double cropping as an emerging adaptation alternative

Cited by 125 publications

References 35 publications

Impact of climate change on maize’s water needs, yields and profitability under various water prices in Spain

Impact of climate change on maize’s water needs, yields and profitability under various water prices in Spain

Evaluation of CSM-CERES-wheat in simulating wheat yield and its attributes with different sowing environments in Tarai region of Uttarakhand

Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

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