Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas in the United States

Mills, David; Schwartz, Joel; Lee, Mihye; Sarofim, Marcus C.; Jones, Russell; Lawson, Megan; Duckworth, Michael; Deck, Leland

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1154-8

Cited by 54 publications

(55 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Furthermore, the magnitude of our projected impact of climate policy on avoided mortality is similar to that estimated, for example, for extreme temperature mortality using the same policy and climate scenarios under EPA's CIRA project. 41 These findings demonstrate that climate-specific air quality impacts can significantly contribute to the value of benefits associated with climate change mitigation and should be considered in decisions concerning climate policy. …”

Section: Implications For Benefits Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…Under the CIRA framework, these scenarios have been systematically applied to explore different impacts, including water resources, infrastructure, and health. [41][42][43] We examine the effect of climate change and climate policy on U.S. air quality and its associated health risks using the scenarios developed under the CIRA project for consistent analyses of climate impacts. Our modeling framework includes an integrated assessment model, a global atmospheric chemistry model, and a health and economic benefits model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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U.S. Air Quality and Health Benefits from Avoided Climate Change under Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

Garcia–Menendez

Saari

Monier

et al. 2015

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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We evaluate the impact of climate change on U.S. air quality and health in 2050 and 2100 using a global modeling framework and integrated economic, climate, and air pollution projections.Three internally consistent socioeconomic scenarios are used to value health benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation policies specifically derived from slowing climate change. Our projections suggest that climate change, exclusive of changes in air pollutant emissions, can significantly impact ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution across the U.S. and increase associated health effects. Climate policy can substantially reduce these impacts and climate-related air pollution health benefits alone can offset a significant fraction of mitigation costs. We find that in contrast to co-benefits from reductions to co-emitted pollutants, the climate-induced air quality benefits of policy increase with time and are largest between 2050-2100. Our projections also suggest that increasing climate policy stringency beyond a certain degree may lead to diminishing returns relative to its cost. However, our results indicate that the air quality impacts of climate change are substantial and should be considered by cost-benefit climate policy analyses.

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Section: Implications For Benefits Assessmentsmentioning

confidence: 87%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

U.S. Air Quality and Health Benefits from Avoided Climate Change under Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

Garcia–Menendez

Saari

Monier

et al. 2015

Environ. Sci. Technol.

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“…Changes in extreme temperatures can also impact human morbidity and mortality (Luber and McGeehin 2008;O'Neill and Ebi 2009). There would likely be competing effects with a negative impact from increasing extreme hot temperatures and a positive impact from decreasing extreme cold temperatures (Mills et al 2013b). Similarly, changes in extreme temperature would affect energy demand, with increasing extreme hot events leading to higher usage of air conditioning (Miller et al 2008;McFarland et al 2013).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Monier

Gao

2014

Climatic Change

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In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.

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“…A few previous studies have considered the impact of temperature changes across the calendar year through the end of the century in various locations within the United States (US) (Li et al 2013, Mills et al 2015, Schwartz et al 2015). For example, Schwartz et al (2015) estimated that most US regions would experience a net increase in temperature-related mortality due to projected temperature changes.…”

Section: ) Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios

Weinberger

Haykin

Eliot

et al. 2017

Environment International

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Background There is an established U-shaped association between daily temperature and mortality. Temperature changes projected through the end of century are expected to lead to higher rates of heat-related mortality but also lower rates of cold-related mortality, such that the net change in temperature-related mortality will depend on location. Objectives We quantified the change in heat-, cold-, and temperature-related mortality rates through the end of the century across 10 large US metropolitan areas. Methods We applied location-specific projections of future temperature from over 40 downscaled climate models to exposure-response functions relating daily temperature and mortality in 10 US metropolitan areas to estimate the change in temperature-related mortality rates in 2045–2055 and 2085–2095 compared to 1992–2002, under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We further calculated the total number of deaths attributable to temperature in 1997, 2050, and 2090 in each metropolitan area, either assuming constant population or accounting for projected population growth. Results In each of the 10 metropolitan areas, projected future temperatures were associated with lower rates of cold-related deaths and higher rates of heat-related deaths. Under the higher-emission RCP 8.5 scenario, 8 of the 10 metropolitan areas are projected to experience a net increase in annual temperature-related deaths per million people by 2086–2095, ranging from a net increase of 627 (95% empirical confidence intervals [eCI]: 239, 1018) deaths per million in Los Angeles to a net decrease of 59 (95% eCI: −485, 314) deaths per million in Boston. Applying these projected temperature-related mortality rates to projected population size underscores the large public health burden of temperature. Conclusions Increases in the heat-related death rate are projected to outweigh decreases in the cold-related death rate in 8 out of 10 cities studied under a high emissions scenario. Adhering to a lower emission scenario has the potential to substantially reduce future temperature-related mortality.

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Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas in the United States

Cited by 54 publications

References 22 publications

U.S. Air Quality and Health Benefits from Avoided Climate Change under Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

U.S. Air Quality and Health Benefits from Avoided Climate Change under Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Projected temperature-related deaths in ten large U.S. metropolitan areas under different climate change scenarios

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