Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

Serdeczny, Olivia; Adams, Sophie; Baarsch, Florent; Coumou, Dim; Robinson, Alexander; Hare, Bill; Schaeffer, Michiel; Perrette, Mahé; Reinhardt, Julia

doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0910-2

Cited by 587 publications

(339 citation statements)

References 108 publications

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“…The works of [44] show that the dry-season decrease ranges from 4% to 25% and the wet-season increase ranges from 5% to 23%. However, the increase in the wet months' rainfall may be higher in the far future (2041-2060 or In West Africa, the rainfall season is predicted to be wetter and delayed by the end of the 21st Century [45]. Otherwise, the work in West Africa [33] showed that although the GCMs manage to reproduce these seasonal dynamics (except for HadCM3), they have real difficulty in accurately simulating the volume of rainfall.…”

Section: Changes In Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Water Resources in the Bandama Basin, Côte D’ivoire

et al. 2017

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Abstract:This study aims to assess future trends in monthly rainfall and temperature and its impacts on surface and groundwater resources in the Bandama basin. The Bandama river is one of the four major rivers of Côte d'Ivoire. Historical data from 14 meteorological and three hydrological stations were used. Simulation results for future climate from HadGEM2-ES model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate that the annual temperature may increase from 1.2 • C to 3 • C. These increases will be greater in the north than in the south of the basin. The monthly rainfall may decrease from December to April in the future. During this period, it is projected to decrease by 3% to 42% at all horizons under RCP 4.5 and by 5% to 47% under RCP 8.5. These variations will have cause an increase in surface and groundwater resources during the three periods (2006-2035; 2041-2060; 2066-2085) under the RCP 4.5 scenario. On the other side, these water resources may decrease for all horizons under RCP 8.5 in the Bandama basin.

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Section: Changes In Rainfallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Water Resources in the Bandama Basin, Côte D’ivoire

et al. 2017

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“…In the literature, a lot of information is available about climate change perceptions and impacts in sub-Saharan Africa (e.g. Serdeczny et al, 2017;Ouédraogo et al, 2017), but limited attention is given to emerging initiatives, technologies and policies that are tailored to building the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems to climate variability. Globally, the development and promotion of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is viewed as an opportunity for building synergies among climate change mitigation, adaptation and food security and minimizing their potential negative trade-offs (Lipper et al, 2014;Campbell, 2017;Partey et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Facing climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa: analysis of climate-smart agriculture opportunities to manage climate-related risks

et al. 2018

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-In the literature, a lot of information is available about climate change perceptions and impacts in sub-Saharan Africa. However, there is limited attention in the region to emerging initiatives, technologies and policies that are tailored to building the adaptive capacity of agricultural systems to climate change and variability. In this paper, we discuss the prospects for climate-smart agriculture technologies and enabling policies in dealing with climate change and variability at different sub-regional levels of sub-Saharan Africa to sustain farm productivity and livelihoods of agrarian communities. The review provides substantial information suggesting that without appropriate interventions, climate change and variability will affect agricultural yields, food security and add to the presently unaceptable levels of poverty in sub-Saharan Africa. Although some of them were already existing, the past decades have seen the development and promotion of climate-smart agriculture innovations such as the use of high yielding drought tolerant crop varieties, climate information services, agricultural insurance, agroforestry, water harvesting techniques, integrated soil fertility management practices, etc. In the context of climate change, this appears as a stepping up approach to sustainably improving farm productivity, rural livelihoods and adaptive capacity of farmers and production systems while contributing to mitigation. The development of regional, sub-regional and national climate change policies and plans targeted at mitigating climate change and improving adaptive capacity of the African people have also been developed to enable mainstreaming of climate-smart agriculture into agricultural development plans. Financial commitments from governments and development agencies will be crucial for improving large scale adoption of climate-smart agriculture.Keywords: agriculture development / adaptation / climate change and variability / food security / risk management Résumé -Variabilité climatique en Afrique subsaharienne : analyse des opportunités d'agriculture climato-intelligente pour la gestion des risques. De nombreuses informations sont disponibles sur les perceptions et impacts du changement climatique en Afrique subsaharienne. Cependant, il est porté peu d'attention aux initiatives, technologies et politiques émergentes qui renforceraient la capacité d'adaptation des systèmes agricoles aux changement et variabilités climatiques. Dans cet article, nous analysons les perspectives en matière de technologies et de politiques d'agriculture climato-intelligente, qui permettraient de faire face au changement et à la variabilité climatiques dans différentes sous-régions d'Afrique subsaharienne, afin de soutenir la productivité agricole et les moyens de subsistance des communautés rurales. Les résultats de cette analyse suggèrent que les changements et variabilités climatiques affecteront les rendements agricoles, la sécurité alimentaire et aggraveront les niveaux actuels inacceptables de pauvreté en Afriq...

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“…These studies assessed the current and future water resources availability and rainfall variability across the globe to support appropriate water resources planning and management. Different studies showed that Africa is highly vulnerable to climate change [29]. Climate change studies showed temperature increased and precipitation pattern changed throughout arid and semi-arid regions of Africa [30][31][32] and affected the hydrological processes that impacts reservoir operation.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs under Climate Change: The Case of Tekeze Reservoir, Eastern Nile

Abera

Asfaw

Engida

et al. 2018

Water

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Abstract:Optimal operation of reservoirs is very essential for water resource planning and management, but it is very challenging and complicated when dealing with climate change impacts. The objective of this paper was to assess existing and future hydropower operation at the Tekeze reservoir in the face of climate change. In this study, a calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model runoff inflow into the Tekeze hydropower reservoir under present and future climate scenarios. Inflow to the reservoir was simulated using hydro-climatic data from an ensemble of downscaled climate data based on the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment over African domain (CORDEX-Africa) with Coupled Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Observed and projected inflows to Tekeze hydropower reservoir were used as input to the US Army Corps of Engineer's Reservoir Evaluation System Perspective Reservoir Model (HEC-ResPRM), a reservoir operation model, to optimize hydropower reservoir release, storage and pool level. Results indicated that climate change has a clear impact on reservoir inflow and showed increase in annual and monthly inflow into the reservoir except in dry months from May to June under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. HEC-ResPRM optimal operation results showed an increase in Tekeze reservoir power storage potential up to 25% and 30% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, respectively. This implies that Tekeze hydropower production will be affected by climate change. This analysis can be used by water resources planners and mangers to develop reservoir operation techniques considering climate change impact to increase power production.

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Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

Cited by 587 publications

References 108 publications

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Water Resources in the Bandama Basin, Côte D’ivoire

Climate Change and Its Impacts on Water Resources in the Bandama Basin, Côte D’ivoire

Facing climate variability in sub-Saharan Africa: analysis of climate-smart agriculture opportunities to manage climate-related risks

Optimal Operation of Hydropower Reservoirs under Climate Change: The Case of Tekeze Reservoir, Eastern Nile

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