Climate change impact on the hydrological budget of a large Mediterranean island

Nerantzaki, Sofia D.; Efstathiou, Dionissis; Giannakis, Giorgos; Kritsotakis, M.; Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis K.; Nikolaidis, Νikolaos P.

doi:10.1080/02626667.2019.1630741

Cited by 21 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…With the raising awareness of climate change, a number of local and regional studies have assessed the potential impacts of climate change on hydrological drought in recent years (e.g., Cervi et al, 2018;Hellwig and Stahl, 2018;Nerantzaki et al, 2019;Rudd et al, 2019;Van Tiel et al, 2018). Despite the high detail and insight on local processes these studies provide, their limited spatial coverage and the use of different drought indicators, models and scenarios complicates the understanding of large-scale patterns of changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

Cammalleri¹,

Naumann²,

Mentaschi³

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Abstract. Climate change is anticipated to alter the demand and supply of water at the earth's surface. Since many societal impacts from a lack of water happen under drought conditions, it is important to understand how droughts may develop with climate change. This study shows how hydrological droughts will change across Europe with increasing global warming levels (GWL of 1.5, 2 and 3 K above preindustrial temperature). We employ a low-flow index derived from river discharge simulations of a spatially-distributed physically-based hydrological and water use model, which was forced with a large ensemble of regional climate model projections under a high emissions (RCP8.5) and moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) pathway. Different traits of drought, including severity, duration and frequency, were investigated. The projected changes in these treats identify four main sub-regions in Europe that are characterized by somehow homogeneous and distinct behaviours with a clear southwest/northeast contrast. The Mediterranean and Boreal sub-regions of Europe show strong, but opposite, changes at all three GWLs, with the former area mostly interested by stronger droughts (with larger differences at 3 K) while the latter sees a reduction in droughts. In the Atlantic and Continental sub-regions the changes are less marked and characterized by a larger uncertainty, especially at the 1.5 and 2 K GWLs. Combining the projections in drought hazard with population and agricultural information shows that with 3 K global warming an additional 11 million people and 4.5 million ha of agricultural land will be exposed to droughts every year, on average. These are mostly located in the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions of Europe.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

Cammalleri¹,

Naumann²,

Mentaschi³

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…From a hydrogeological perspective, the island is mainly composed of pre-alpine and alpine carbonate formations and neogene and quaternary (alluvial) sediments which expedite water penetration; hence, the region exhibits limited surface water resources [28]. Crete is a well-studied region in the context of climate change impacts, mainly for its location and size, its environmental heterogeneity, but also due to its hydrological isolation from continental Greece, which makes it ideal for studying climate change impacts [21,[29][30][31].…”

Section: Case Study Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Quantile Mapping Method to Fill in Discontinued Daily Precipitation Time Series

Grillakis

Polykretis

Manoudakis

et al. 2020

Water

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We present and assess a method to estimate missing values in daily precipitation time series for the Mediterranean island of Crete. The method involves a quantile mapping methodology originally developed for the bias correction of climate models’ output. The overall methodology is based on a two-step procedure: (a) assessment of missing values from nearby stations and (b) adjustment of the biases in the probability density function of the filled values towards the existing data of the target. The methodology is assessed for its performance in filling-in the time series of a dense precipitation station network with large gaps on the island of Crete, Greece. The results indicate that quantile mapping can benefit the filled-in missing data statistics, as well as the wet day fraction. Conceptual limitations of the method are discussed, and correct methodology application guidance is provided.

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“…The bias-corrected data are projected to 2100 and follow the procedure of the climatic data produced from the Climate Service Center REMO (CSC-REMO) regional climate model (RCM) simulations, being influenced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, low resolution, reanalysis 1 (MPI-ESM-LR-r1) driving global climate model (GCM). Full climate change impact analysis was performed in the island of Crete by Nerantzaki et al [26] and Tapoglou et al [27] for the 1981-2100 period. Climate change impact on precipitation was limited to daily data, with the maximum daily precipitation derived by the GCM-RCM for the RCP4.5 emissions' scenario being equal to 340 mm, which is not appropriate to be used in flash floods in a small basin.…”

Section: Climate Model Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of a Flash Flood in a Small Basin in Crete

Sarchani

Tsanis

2019

Water

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Climate change will have a greater impact on the severity of flash floods, since precipitation intensity is expected to increase, even in areas where a reduction of precipitation is possible. This change in climate is expected to increase flood wave speed and its flood wave area extent. A case study of a small basin in the island of Crete was conducted to examine this effect, following the calibration and validation of the flow hydrograph of a flash flood event, in order to achieve model verification with the post-flood data. It was found that the most important parameters that affect the timing and magnitude of the peak discharge are the storage coefficient, the impervious rate and the curve number, as well as the time of concentration. Rainfall distribution was examined in different time intervals in order to study the effect of the intensity of precipitation on the peak hydrograph. From the precipitation records and according to the size of the watershed, the time step of the precipitation in the simulation model is recommended to be less than an hour. In other areas around the basin of interest, severe storms known as Medicanes that pass over Crete can produce higher precipitation in shorter time intervals. The impact of climate change scenarios results in an increase on the peak discharge by creating precipitation of higher intensity. Furthermore, the intensification of precipitation due to climate change results in higher flood depths and flooded area extent, as well as wave velocities.

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Climate change impact on the hydrological budget of a large Mediterranean island

Cited by 21 publications

References 68 publications

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

A Quantile Mapping Method to Fill in Discontinued Daily Precipitation Time Series

Analysis of a Flash Flood in a Small Basin in Crete

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