Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

Cammalleri, Carmelo; Naumann, Gustavo; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Bernard, Bisselink; Gelati, Emiliano; Roo, Ad de; Feyen, Luc

doi:10.5194/hess-2020-93

Cited by 14 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 40 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Cammalleri et al. (2020) investigated the changes in hydrological droughts over Europe under 1.5, 2, and 3°C warming levels, and they found an opposite tendency in the Mediterranean and Boreal sub‐regions of Europe in warmer climates. Specifically, the former region is projected to suffer an exacerbated drought condition with the temperature rising, while that in the latter region will be relieved.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides, the stationary assumption is made within a given time window (typically 30 years) for the historical and future climate in most of the drought projection studies (Cammalleri et al., 2020; Gu, Chen, Yin, Sullivan, et al., 2020; Naumann et al., 2018). However, the stationarity assumption for the future period is challenged in the global warming context, especially when a long time period is selected (Huang et al., 2016; Jehanzaib et al., 2020; Mukherjee et al., 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Cammalleri et al. (2020) assessed the variation in hydrological droughts from aspects of drought severity, duration, and frequency over Europe under 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0°C warming levels. They found that the changes in drought characteristics would be similar but more pronounced under warmer levels.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Troin

Shi

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Meteorological to hydrological drought propagation has been widely studied to reflect the relationship between these drought categories and better understand drought mechanisms. However, global warming may alter the drought propagation features, which are not fully understood. This study aims to investigate changes in meteorological and hydrological drought conditions, especially their propagation features in 1.5–3.0°C warmer climates for 8,655 watersheds globally. First, the three‐month scale standardized precipitation index and the standardized runoff index are calculated based on the precipitation simulated by the 15 global climate models and the runoff simulated by the four hydrological models, respectively. Drought events are then identified using the run theory, followed by the calculation of drought propagation features (i.e., pooling, lag, and lengthening) for matched meteorological and hydrological droughts. As a result, both meteorological and hydrological drought conditions (i.e., duration and severity) would relieve in warmer climates due to increased precipitation for regions excluding Western North America, South America, the Mediterranean, Southern Africa, East Asia, and Australia. However, the drought conditions would be more severe during drought propagation from meteorological to hydrological droughts over most regions. During drought propagation, the worsening drought conditions over half of the regions would be more serious first and then relieved with the rising temperature. These results indicate that efforts to slow down global warming can suppress the deterioration of drought conditions in the propagation.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Troin

Shi

et al. 2022

Earth's Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The runoff in late spring and summer is likely to decrease (thereby increasing the probability of hydrological droughts) in most of the basin, due to earlier snowmelt, increased evapotranspiration, and possibly, particularly in the southern parts, reduced summer precipitation (Räisänen, 2017). Increasingly severe river flow droughts are projected for most European regions, except central-eastern and north-eastern Europe (Cammalleri et al, 2020). Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts in Finland (Veijalainen et al, 2019).…”

Section: Droughtmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event that has a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared to save human lives as well as to invest in adaptation options. Natural hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. Here, we summarize existing knowledge about extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with a focus on the past 200 years as well as on future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea levels, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and the implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructure, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to climate change and also concerning specific events, for example, the occurrence of marine heat waves and small-scale variability in precipitation. Suggestions for future research include the further development of high-resolution Earth system models and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to the expected impacts of climate change, changes are expected for sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase), and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding, and extreme waves), the change depends on the area and time period studied.

show abstract

“…The runoff in late spring and summer is likely to decrease in most of the basin, due to the earlier snowmelt, increased evapotranspiration, and, possibly, particularly in the southern parts, reduced summer precipitation . Increasingly severe river flow droughts are projected for most European regions, except central-eastern and north-eastern Europe (Cammalleri et al, 2020 project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts in Finland .…”

Section: Drought (Irina Danilovich)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

Rutgersson

Kjellström

Haapala

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and they can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared and to save human lives and to invest in adaptation options. Natural Hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. We here summarise existing knowledge of extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with the focus on past 200 years, as well as future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructures, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large scale atmospheric circulation to climate change, but also concerning specific events, for example, occurrences of marine heat waves and small-scale variability of precipitation. Suggestions for future research includes further development of high-resolution Earth System models, and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to expected impact of climate change, changes are expected for sea-level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase) and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding and extreme waves) the change depends on the area and time period studies.

show abstract

Diverging hydrological drought traits over Europe with global warming

Cited by 14 publications

References 40 publications

Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Impacts of Global Climate Warming on Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts and Their Propagations

Natural hazards and extreme events in the Baltic Sea region

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About