Climate change impact on rainfed wheat in south-eastern Australia

Anwar, Muhuddin Rajin; O’Leary, G.; McNeil, DL; Hossain, Hemayet; Nelson, Roger

doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2007.03.020

Cited by 128 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…This is consistent with the findings of Holz et al (2010), in which simulated wheat yields without nutrient limitation were projected to increase in Tasmania. Our results contrast, however, with other studies of climate change impacts on wheat production in south-eastern Australia, where without adaptation strategies, yields have been projected to decline under a warming climate (van Ittersum et al 2003;Anwar et al 2007;Wang et al 2009Wang et al , 2011. Similar to the pasture simulations, regional wheat responses to the projected warming were comparable between sites; however, greater increases were projected at Bothwell, which is more temperature-limited than the other sites, particularly during winter.…”

Section: Wheat Production Response To the Projected Climatecontrasting

confidence: 56%

Beneficial impacts of climate change on pastoral and broadacre agriculture in cool-temperate Tasmania

et al. 2014

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Abstract. Although geographically small, Tasmania has a diverse range of regional climates that are affected by different synoptic influences. Consequently, changes in climate variables and climate-change impacts will likely vary in different regions of the state. This study aims to quantify the regional effects of projected climate change on the productivity of rainfed pastoral and wheat crop systems at five sites across Tasmania. Projected climate data for each site were obtained from the Climate Futures for Tasmania project (CFT). Six General Circulation Models were dynamically downscaled to~10-km grid cells using the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model under the A2 emissions scenario for the period 1961-2100. Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures at each site are projected to increase from a baseline period to 2085 (2071-2100) by 2.3-2.78C. Mean annual rainfall is projected to increase slightly at all sites. Impacts on pasture and wheat production were simulated for each site using the projected CFT climate data. Mean annual pasture yields are projected to increase from the baseline to 2085 largely due to an increase in spring pasture growth. However, summer growth of temperate pasture species may become limited by 2085 due to greater soil moisture deficits. Wheat yields are also projected to increase, particularly at sites presently temperature-limited. This study suggests that increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are likely to increase regional rainfed pasture and wheat production in the absence of any significant changes in rainfall patterns.

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Section: Wheat Production Response To the Projected Climatecontrasting

confidence: 56%

Beneficial impacts of climate change on pastoral and broadacre agriculture in cool-temperate Tasmania

et al. 2014

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“…Patch-point climate datasets were used for Ellinbank, Elliott, and Mutdapilly (Amberley, 15 km north of the site), while interpolated climate data were used at Barraba and Wagga Wagga. Monthly average minimum and maximum temperature and rainfall over the 30-year baseline period were tested for the presence of any linear annual trends (Anwar et al 2007). Few significant trends were observed (as measured by r 2 correlation) and so de-trending of the data was not undertaken.…”

Section: Climate Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Biophysical modelling approaches which integrate climatic changes with plant responses to elevated CO 2 concentrations, such as those used in cropping systems (e.g. van Ittersum et al 2003;Anwar et al 2007), are the only means available to do this.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change effects on pasture systems in south-eastern Australia

Johnson²,

et al. 2009

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Abstract. Climate change projections for Australia predict increasing temperatures, changes to rainfall patterns, and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentrations. The aims of this study were to predict plant production responses to elevated CO 2 concentrations using the SGS Pasture Model and DairyMod, and then to quantify the effects of climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2070 on predicted pasture growth, species composition, and soil moisture conditions of 5 existing pasture systems in climates ranging from cool temperate to subtropical, relative to a historical baseline. Three future climate scenarios were created for each site by adjusting historical climate data according to temperature and rainfall change projections for 2030, 2070 mid-and 2070 high-emission scenarios, using output from the CSIRO Mark 3 global climate model. In the absence of other climate changes, mean annual pasture production at an elevated CO 2 concentration of 550 ppm was predicted to be 24-29% higher than at 380 ppm CO 2 in temperate (C 3 ) species-dominant pastures in southern Australia, with lower mean responses in a mixed C 3 /C 4 pasture at Barraba in northern New South Wales (17%) and in a C 4 pasture at Mutdapilly in south-eastern Queensland (9%). In the future climate scenarios at the Barraba and Mutdapilly sites in subtropical and subhumid climates, respectively, where climate projections indicated warming of up to 4.48C, with little change in annual rainfall, modelling predicted increased pasture production and a shift towards C 4 species dominance. In Mediterranean, temperate, and cool temperate climates, climate change projections indicated warming of up to 3.38C, with annual rainfall reduced by up to 28%. Under future climate scenarios at Wagga Wagga, NSW, and Ellinbank, Victoria, our study predicted increased winter and early spring pasture growth rates, but this was counteracted by a predicted shorter spring growing season, with annual pasture production higher than the baseline under the 2030 climate scenario, but reduced by up to 19% under the 2070 high scenario. In a cool temperate environment at Elliott, Tasmania, annual production was higher than the baseline in all 3 future climate scenarios, but highest in the 2070 mid scenario. At the Wagga Wagga, Ellinbank, and Elliott sites the effect of rainfall declines on pasture production was moderated by a predicted reduction in drainage below the root zone and, at Ellinbank, the use of deeper rooted plant systems was shown to be an effective adaptation to mitigate some of the effect of lower rainfall.

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“…The fluxes of N 2 O have a threshold response to N, and the amount of N lost to the atmosphere depends on the amount of N taken up by plants (McSwiney and Robertson 2005). Changes in precipitation (Mearns 2003), temperature (Fiscus et al 1997) and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations could also have positive effects on the productivity of plants (Anwar et al 2007). Many factors are responsible for CO 2 effects.…”

Section: Effects Of Climate Change On Ghg and Soc Fluxes And Net Primmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result, the frequency and extent of rainfall is likely to be highly variable (Kattenberg et al 1995). Such changes in temperature (Fiscus et al 1997) and precipitation (Mearns 2003) would be expected to influence mineralization and denitrification, and thereby GHG production in the soil, but could also increase plant productivity (Anwar et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate

et al. 2016

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The Welsh Government is committed to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural systems and combat the effects of future climate change. In this study, the ECOSSE model was applied spatially to estimate GHG and soil organic carbon (SOC) fluxes from three major land uses (grass, arable and forest) in Wales. The aims of the simulations were: (1) to estimate the annual net GHG balance for Wales; (2) to investigate the efficiency of the reduced nitrogen (N) fertilizer goal of the sustainable land management scheme (Glastir), through which the Welsh Government offers financial support to farmers and land managers on GHG flux reduction; and (3) to investigate the effects of future climate change on the emissions of GHG and plant net primary production (NPP). Three climate scenarios were studied: baseline ) and low and high emission climate scenarios . Results reveal that grassland and cropland are the major nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emitters and consequently emit more GHG to the atmosphere than forests. The overall average simulated annual net GHG balance for Wales under baseline climate ) is equivalent to 0.2 t CO 2 e ha -1 y -1 which gives an estimate of total annual net flux for Wales of 0.34 Mt CO 2 e y -1 . Reducing N fertilizer by 20 and 40 % could reduce annual net GHG fluxes by 7 and 25 %, respectively. If the current N fertilizer application rate continues, predicted climate change by the year 2050 would not significantly affect GHG emissions or NPP from soils in Wales.

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Climate change impact on rainfed wheat in south-eastern Australia

Cited by 128 publications

References 23 publications

Beneficial impacts of climate change on pastoral and broadacre agriculture in cool-temperate Tasmania

Beneficial impacts of climate change on pastoral and broadacre agriculture in cool-temperate Tasmania

Climate change effects on pasture systems in south-eastern Australia

Estimating the effect of nitrogen fertilizer on the greenhouse gas balance of soils in Wales under current and future climate

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