Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project

Romanowicz, Renata J.; Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Debele, Sisay; Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Hisdal, Hege; Lawrence, Deborah; Meresa, Hadush; Napiórkowski, Jarosław; Osuch, Marzena; Strupczewski, Witold G.; Wilson, Donna; Wong, Wai Kwok

doi:10.1515/acgeo-2016-0009

Cited by 44 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…The selection of Polish and Norwegian catchments included in this study was described by Romanowicz et al (2016). Nearly natural catchments were selected to minimize the impact of human activity on catchment runoff.…”

Section: Study Areas and Hydroclimatic Data Study Area And Observed Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Understanding changes and trends in projected hydroclimatic indices in selected Norwegian and Polish catchments

2017

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The aim of the study is to investigate trends in selected hydroclimatic indices using novel and conventional tools, for future climate projections in the twentyfirst century. Selected quasi-natural Norwegian and Polish catchments are used as a case study. The projected flows are provided by GR4J rainfall-runoff conceptual model, coupled with an ensemble of climate model projections from EURO-CORDEX initiative. The trends are analysed using conventional Mann-Kendall and modified MannKendall statistical approaches, a time-frequency approach based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and the dynamic harmonic regression (DHR) method. Of all methods applied the DHR gives the most conservative trend estimates. Trends depend on the specific hydroclimatic character and flow regime of the catchment. The results confirmed that in catchments with a rainfall-driven flood regime, an increase in the amount of precipitation is followed by increased flows, with strong seasonal changes, whereas, in catchments with a snow-driven flood regime, despite an increase of mean annual flow, decrease in annual maximum flow is observed. Generally, positive trend is the most dominant in all catchments studied and the methods were consistent in detection of trend except in seasonal trend test.

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Section: Study Areas and Hydroclimatic Data Study Area And Observed Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2. Following the description given by Romanowicz et al (2016), Polmak and Atnasjo catchments have snowmelt-driven flood regimes. The Krinsvatn and Ardal have rainfall-driven flood regimes, and the rest of the catchments have mixed flood regime.…”

Section: Study Areas and Hydroclimatic Data Study Area And Observed Dmentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding changes and trends in projected hydroclimatic indices in selected Norwegian and Polish catchments

2017

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“…Lach and Wy_ zga 2002;Kozak et al 2007), as well as the ongoing and future climate change predicted for the 21st century (e.g. Romanowicz et al 2016). The method is based on field surveys that allow recognition of the development of all assessed features of the channel, banks and riparian zone as well as floodplain/river corridor.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of river hydromorphological quality for restoration purposes: an example of the application of RHQ method to a Polish Carpathian river

et al. 2017

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Planning and implementation of effective restoration projects require appropriate assessment of a river's hydromorphological status. Two European standards on hydromorphological assessment of rivers and hydromorphological assessment methods used in Poland are reviewed in the context of their applicability for river restoration purposes. River Hydromorphological Quality assessment method is presented with a case study of the Biała River, Polish Carpathians, where this assessment was used as basis for a restoration project aimed to establish an erodible river corridor. The results of the assessment revealed significant differences in hydromorphological quality between unmanaged and channelized river crosssections, indicating channel regulation as a major cause of the hydromorphological degradation of the Biała and confirming the choice of the erodible river corridor as an appropriate method of its restoration. The assessment indicated hydromorphological features of the river that were severely modified within the channelized reaches and which are likely to improve the most with the removal of bank protection and allowing free channel migration.

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“…The time dependent 99%-quantiles resulting from three compared methods and the multimodel approach are presented for eight Polish and two Norwegian catchments chosen from the set of benchmark catchments of the Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes (CHIHE) project (Romanowicz et al 2016). These benchmark catchments are characterized by natural or quasi-natural hydrological regimes i.e., the flow generating processes are not altered significantly by human pressures and furthermore they represent the variability in climatic conditions across the two countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A comparison of three approaches to non-stationary flood frequency analysis

2017

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Non-stationary flood frequency analysis (FFA) is applied to statistical analysis of seasonal flow maxima from Polish and Norwegian catchments. Three non-stationary estimation methods, namely, maximum likelihood (ML), two stage (WLS/TS) and GAMLSS (generalized additive model for location, scale and shape parameters), are compared in the context of capturing the effect of non-stationarity on the estimation of time-dependent moments and design quantiles. The use of a multimodel approach is recommended, to reduce the errors due to the model misspecification in the magnitude of quantiles. The results of calculations based on observed seasonal daily flow maxima and computer simulation experiments showed that GAMLSS gave the best results with respect to the relative bias and root mean square error in the estimates of trend in the standard deviation and the constant shape parameter, while WLS/TS provided better accuracy in the estimates of trend in the mean value. Within three compared methods the WLS/TS method is recommended to deal with nonstationarity in short time series. Some practical aspects of the GAMLSS package application are also presented. The detailed discussion of general issues related to consequences of climate change in the FFA is presented in the second part of the article entitled ''Around and about an application of the GAMLSS package in non-stationary flood frequency analysis''.Keywords Non-stationary flood frequency analysis Á Maximum likelihood Á Two-stage methodology Á GAMLSS Á Multimodel approach Á Monte Carlo simulations

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Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes: Preliminary Results from the Polish-Norwegian Project

Cited by 44 publications

References 50 publications

Understanding changes and trends in projected hydroclimatic indices in selected Norwegian and Polish catchments

Understanding changes and trends in projected hydroclimatic indices in selected Norwegian and Polish catchments

Assessment of river hydromorphological quality for restoration purposes: an example of the application of RHQ method to a Polish Carpathian river

A comparison of three approaches to non-stationary flood frequency analysis

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