Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal

Bajracharya, A. R.; Bajracharya, S. R.; Shrestha, A. B.; Maharjan, Sudan Bikash

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.12.332

Cited by 152 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…For instance, Bajracharya et al . () skip re‐application of the method and directly use the four models chosen by Lutz et al . () for the entire Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins for their future water resources assessment in Kaligandaki, a small sub‐basin of the Ganges.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While Lutz et al (2016) and McSweeney et al, (2012)'s approaches are thorough, considering both range of available projections and model skills, their replication to RCMs and finer spatial scale would require significant work. For instance, Bajracharya et al (2018) skip re-application of the method and directly use the four models chosen by Lutz et al (2016) for the entire Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra basins for their future water resources assessment in Kaligandaki, a small sub-basin of the Ganges. Few existing web-based tools like the KNMI Climate Explorer (https://climexp.knmi.nl/plot atlas form.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate futures for Western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX‐SA

Dhaubanjar¹,

Pandey²,

Bharati³

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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With the objective to provide a basis for regional climate models (RCMs) selection and ensemble generation for climate impact assessments, we perform the first ever analysis of climate projections for Western Nepal from 19 RCMs in the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment for South Asia (CORDEX‐SA). Using the climate futures (CF) framework, projected changes in annual total precipitation and average minimum/maximum temperature from the RCMs are classified into 18 CF matrices for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs: 4.5/8.5), three future time frames (2021–2045/2046–2070/2071–2095), three geographic regions (mountains/hills/plains) and three representative CF (low‐risk/consensus/high‐risk). Ten plausible CF scenario ensembles were identified to assess future water availability in Karnali basin, the headwaters of the Ganges. Comparison of projections for the three regions with literature shows that spatial disaggregation possible using RCMs is important, as local values are often higher with higher variability than values for South Asia. Characterization of future climate using raw and bias‐corrected data shows that RCM projections vary most between mountain and Tarai plains with increasing divergence for higher future and RCPs. Warmer temperatures, prolonged monsoon and sporadic rain events even in drier months are likely across all regions. Highest fluctuations in precipitation are projected for the hills and plains while highest changes in temperature are projected for the mountains. Trends in change in annual average discharge for the scenarios vary across the basin with both precipitation and temperature change influencing the hydrological cycle. CF matrices provide an accessible and simplified basis to systematically generate application‐specific plausible climate scenario ensembles from all available RCMs for a rigorous impact assessment.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate futures for Western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX‐SA

Dhaubanjar¹,

Pandey²,

Bharati³

2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The classified slope and soil map was introduced to the model, and ten elevation bands were determined to adjust the temperature and rainfall based on subbasin elevation variation. To create fewer HRUs, a 10% threshold for land use, soil type, and slope were determined [52]. Therefore, based on the DEM data and accurate flow routing, the Talar River Basin was divided into 21 subbasins by a threshold drainage area of 3453 km 2 .…”

Section: Swat Model Set Upmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and Source Area in Northern Iran under CMIP5 Scenarios

Maghsood

Moradi

Bavani

et al. 2019

Water

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This study assessed the impact of climate change on flood frequency and flood source area at basin scale considering Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 General Circulation Models (CMIP5 GCMs) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (2.6 and 8.5). For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model was calibrated and validated for the Talar River Basin in northern Iran. Four empirical approaches including the Sangal, Fill–Steiner, Fuller, and Slope-based methods were used to estimate the Instantaneous Peak Flow (IPF) on a daily basis. The calibrated SWAT model was run under the two RCP scenarios using a combination of twenty GCMs from CMIP5 for the near future (2020–40). To assess the impact of climate change on flood frequency pattern and to quantify the contribution of each subbasin on the total discharge from the Talar River Basin, Flood Frequency Index (FFI) and Subbasin Flood Source Area Index (SFSAI) were used. Results revealed that the projected climate change will likely lead to an average discharge decrease in January, February, and March for both RCPs and an increase in September and October for RCP 8.5. The maximum and minimum temperature will likely increase for all months in the near future. The annual precipitation could increase by more than 20% in the near future. This is likely to lead to an increase of IPF. The results can help managers and policy makers to better define mitigation and adaptation strategies for basins in similar climates.

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“…The researchers used a semi-distributed model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to assess the effect of future climate change on hydrologic components of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. Similar SWAT model studies were able to identify specific changes in local hydrology and ecosystem consequences due to climate change for other watersheds across the globe (Moradkhani et al 2010;Park et al 2011;Ficklin et al 2013;Ye and Grimm 2013;Chattopadhyay et al 2017;Meaurio et al 2017;Sunde et al 2017;Bajracharya et al 2018;Reshmidevi et al 2018). They also evaluated the sensitivity of the Upper Mississippi River Basin to atmospheric, precipitation, and temperature changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 91%

Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

Ercan¹,

Maghami

Bowes

et al. 2019

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Research Impact Statement: The results of this study can aid planning for the RTP's future hydrologic and water supply conditions and expand the knowledge of local impacts of climate change on critical watersheds.ABSTRACT: Climate change poses water resource challenges for many already water stressed watersheds throughout the world. One such watershed is the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, which serves as a water source for the large and growing Research Triangle Park region. The aim of this study was to quantify possible changes in the watershed's water balance due to climate change. To do this, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model forced with different climate scenarios for baseline, mid-century, and end-century time periods using five different downscaled General Circulation Models. Before running these scenarios, the SWAT model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records within the watershed. The study results suggest that, even under a mitigation scenario, precipitation will increase by 7.7% from the baseline to mid-century time period and by 9.8% between the baseline and end-century time period. Over the same periods, evapotranspiration (ET) would decrease by 5.5 and 7.6%, water yield would increase by 25.1% and 33.2%, and soil water would increase by 1.4% and 1.9%. Perhaps most importantly, the model results show, under a high emission scenario, large seasonal differences with ET estimated to decrease by up to 42% and water yield to increase by up to 157% in late summer and fall. Planning for the wetter predicted future and corresponding seasonal changes will be critical for mitigating the impacts of climate change on water resources.(

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Climate change impact assessment on the hydrological regime of the Kaligandaki Basin, Nepal

Cited by 152 publications

References 40 publications

Climate futures for Western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX‐SA

Climate futures for Western Nepal based on regional climate models in the CORDEX‐SA

Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and Source Area in Northern Iran under CMIP5 Scenarios

Estimating Potential Climate Change Effects on the Upper Neuse Watershed Water Balance Using the SWAT Model

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