Climate change effects on the frequency, seasonality and interannual variability of suitable prescribed burning weather conditions in south-eastern Australia

Climate Change Significantly Alters Future Wildfire Mitigation Opportunities in Southeastern Australia

“…In contrast, this analysis of spatiotemporal changes in the monthly number of burn days shows a more complex pattern of decreases versus increases, dependent upon location and month. However, considering the whole year, much of southeastern Australia is projected to have more days suitable for burning, rather than the opposite scenario, which is consistent with Clarke et al (2019). It is important that opportunities for conducting prescribed burns remain intact throughout a large portion of the year, given projections that the fire season is likely to occur earlier in future, for example, forward extensions of the season into November (Di Virgilio et al, 2019).…”

“…Clarke et al (2019) conducted the first quantitative assessment of future changes in prescribed burn windows using weather definitions for coastal New South Wales (NSW) in southeastern Australia. Focusing on annual changes in prescribed burning days, they found weak evidence for a decrease in burn days under projected climate change, instead finding the potential for widespread increases in current burning seasons.…”

Burning to reduce fuels: the benefits and risks of a public health protection strategy

“…A simulation study in Tasmania illustrated that burning an adequate area of land is close to impossible, even given unlimited financial resources, because optimal burning conditions are infrequent . Further, there is evidence that the available weather windows for planned burning are changing with climate change, although this might influence the season of burning more than the absolute number of days with suitable weather . Finally, it is more difficult to safely conduct elective burns in places where there is a mosaic of infrastructure, homes and communities, even though burning in these regions is likely to confer greater protection of homes and lives from later bushfires.…”

Climate change projected to reduce prescribed burning opportunities in the south-eastern United States

“…Mitchell et al 2014). Yet, there continues to be only a rudimentary understanding of how future climate change could influence the planning and implementation of prescribed fires (Clarke et al 2019). This stands in contrast to wildfires, for which there is a growing body of literature on the risks to communities and ecosystems stemming from anthropogenic climate change (Westerling et al 2011;Balch et al 2017;McKenzie and Littell 2017;Schoennagel et al 2017).…”