Climate change, drought risk and land capability for agriculture: implications for land use in Scotland

Brown, Iain; Poggio, Laura; Gimona, Alessandro; Castellazzi, Marie

doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0163-z

Cited by 53 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…Note that [19] stipulates that daily time series from particular HadRM3-PPE member should be interpreted as plausible realisations, but cannot be associated with level of probabilities. As the 11-member HadRM3-PPE-UK was finalised after elimination of unrealistic simulations by the original 17-member ensemble [19,35], each ensemble member was considered in this study as plausible and all equally probable.…”

Section: The Future Flow Databasementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Value Uncertainty to Extreme Flows across Great Britain

Collet

Beevers

Prudhomme

2017

Water

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Floods are the most common and widely distributed natural risk, causing over £1 billion of damage per year in the UK as a result of recent events. Climatic projections predict an increase in flood risk; it becomes urgent to assess climate change impact on extreme flows, and evaluate uncertainties related to these projections. This paper aims to assess the changes in extreme runoff for the 1:100 year return period across Great Britain as a result of climate change using the Future Flows Hydrology database. The Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) and Generalised Pareto (GP) models are automatically fitted for 11-member ensemble flow series available for the baseline and the 2080s. The analysis evaluates the uncertainty related to the Extreme Value (EV) and climate model parameters. Results suggest that GP and GEV give similar runoff estimates and uncertainties. From the baseline to the 2080s, increasing estimate and uncertainties is evident in east England. With the GEV the uncertainty attributed to the climate model parameters is greater than for the GP (around 60% and 40% of the total uncertainty, respectively). This shows that when fitting both EV models, the uncertainty related to their parameters has to be accounted for to assess extreme runoffs.

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Section: The Future Flow Databasementioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Value Uncertainty to Extreme Flows across Great Britain

Collet

Beevers

Prudhomme

2017

Water

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“…Since the original mapping of LCA classes, more recent work has extended analysis of land quality into the future using climate change scenarios. This research has shown a likely improvement in land capability for many areas of Scotland, due to increased frequency of warmer drier summers, with a consequent expansion of prime agricultural land unless constrained by water availability [30,31]. Non-Prime Moderately-severe Narrow of crops, especially grass due to high yields but harvesting may be restricted due to wetness factors Class 4 2 Non-Prime Moderately-severe Narrow range of crops, especially grass due to high yields but harvesting may be severely restricted due to wetness factors Class 5 1 Non-Prime Severe Improved grassland (mechanical intervention possible) low soil wetness restrictions Class 5 2 Non-Prime Severe Improved grassland (mechanical intervention possible): medium soil wetness restrictions Class 5 3 Non-Prime Severe Improved grassland (mechanical intervention possible): severe soil wetness restrictions Class 6 1 Non-Prime Very Severe Rough grazing pasture only-good grazing quality Class 6 2 Non-Prime Very Severe Rough grazing pasture only-medium grazing quality Class 6 3 Non-Prime Very Severe Rough grazing pasture only-poor grazing quality Class 7…”

Section: Case Study Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 98%

Comparing Path Dependence and Spatial Targeting of Land Use in Implementing Climate Change Responses

Brown

Castellazzi

Feliciano

2014

Land

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Land use patterns are the consequence of dynamic processes that often include important legacy issues. Evaluation of past trends can be used to investigate the role of path dependence in influencing future land use through a reference "business as usual" (BAU) scenario. These issues are explored with regard to objectives for woodland expansion in Scotland as a major pillar of climate change policy. Land use changes based upon recent trends and future transient scenarios to 2050 are used to assess viability of targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions using analysis based on net emission change factors. The BAU scenario is compared with alternative future scenarios incorporating policy targets and stronger spatial targeting of land use change. Analysis highlights recent trends in new woodland planting on lower quality agricultural land due to socioeconomic and cultural factors. This land is mainly in the wetter uplands and often on carbon-rich soils. Woodland planting following this path dependence can therefore result in net carbon emissions for many years into the future due to soil disturbance during establishment. In contrast, alternative scenarios with more lowland woodland planting have net sequestration potential, with greatest benefits when carbon-rich soils are excluded from afforestation. Spatial targeting can also enhance other co-benefits such as habitat networks and climate change adaptation.

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“…Temperature and rainfall regimes in combination with soil properties dictate the potential for agricultural production. Thus climate change, particularly in terms of dryness or wetness will affect agricultural land use, and even moderate changes may have marked effects on land use, especially for soils that are borderline with respect to which crops can be grown (Brown et al 2011). Such areas are therefore more sensitive to environmental change than areas that are clearly favourable or unfavourable for specific agricultural land uses under both current and future climatic conditions.…”

Section: Information Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Socio-economic Impacts—Agricultural Systems

Olesen

2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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Climate change, drought risk and land capability for agriculture: implications for land use in Scotland

Cited by 53 publications

References 44 publications

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Value Uncertainty to Extreme Flows across Great Britain

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change and Extreme Value Uncertainty to Extreme Flows across Great Britain

Comparing Path Dependence and Spatial Targeting of Land Use in Implementing Climate Change Responses

Socio-economic Impacts—Agricultural Systems

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