Climate Change and Renewable Energy Generation in Europe—Long-Term Impact Assessment on Solar and Wind Energy Using High-Resolution Future Climate Data and Considering Climate Uncertainties

Abstract

Climate change can strongly affect renewable energy production. The state of the art in projecting future renewable energy generation has focused on using regional climate prediction. However, regional climate prediction is characterized by inherent uncertainty due to the complexity of climate models. This work provides a comprehensive study to quantify the impact of climate uncertainties in projecting future renewable energy potential over five climate zones of Europe. Thirteen future climate scenarios, including five global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), are downscaled by the RCA4 regional climate model (RCM) over 90 years (2010–2099), divided into three 30-year periods. Solar and wind energy production is projected considering short-/long-term climate variations and uncertainties in seven representative cities (Narvik, Gothenburg, Munich, Antwerp, Salzburg, Valencia, and Athens). The results showed that the uncertainty caused by GCMs has the most substantial impact on projecting renewable energy generation. The variations due to GCM selection can become even larger than long-term climate change variations over time. Climate change uncertainties lead to over 23% and 45% projection differences for solar PV and wind energy potential, respectively. While the signal of climate change in solar radiation is weak between scenarios and over time, wind energy generation is affected by 25%.

Confronting Current Crises and Critical Challenges of Climate Change

“…Also, the authors summarize the available knowledge, identify key research questions and identify steps toward achieving the promise of carbon labeling. Yang et al (2022) use ESS Round 8 data from 23 European countries to examine whether climate change skepticism and concern, pro-environmental personal norms, and a willingness to engage in energy-saving behavior exhibit regional differences and their explanations. The authors find that climate change skepticism and concern do exhibit urban-rural differences, where living in a country village is associated with greater climate skepticism and lower concern compared to living in a big city.…”

Zmiany w strukturze odpływu wody ze zlewni karpackich w półroczu hydrologicznym zimowym w latach 1981‑2020 = Changes in water-runoff patterns in Carpathian catchments during the winter hydrological half-years of the 1981-2020 period

“…Globalne zmiany klimatyczne dotyczą głównie wzrostu ilości energii słonecznej docierającej do Ziemi (natężenie promieniowania słonecznego i usłonecznienie) (Yang et al, 2022). Ma to wpływ na kształtowanie się i stabilność mas powietrza i skutkuje wzrostem temperatury (Hassan i Nile, 2021).…”

Convection‐Permitting ICON‐LAM Simulations for Renewable Energy Potential Estimates Over Southern Africa

“…Meteorological observations at weather stations, for example, from the regional basic synoptic network, feeding into World Meteorological Organization (WMO), are available for long time spans and many locations. They provide local point‐scale weather information for the past (He & Kammen, 2014; Ramirez‐Vergara et al., 2023), while especially wind might show a pronounced spatial variability (Santos‐Alamillos et al., 2014; Yu et al., 2015), and both wind and solar might show pronounced changes in the future related to climate change (Yang et al., 2022). Data from meteorological station networks often serve as ground truth in REP‐related model validations or as assimilated observations in forecasts and reanalyzes (Valmassoi et al., 2023).…”