Climate change and nutria range expansion in the Eastern United States

Abstract

Nutria (Myocastor coypus) are an introduced invasive species expanding their range in North America and may have detrimental effects on wetlands. Little is known about habitat covariates that may limit or enhance range expansion of nutria, especially when combined with predicted changes in climate. We used a hierarchical modeling approach to develop broad‐ and local‐scale maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models based on nutria harvest records in the eastern United States from 2006–2015. We developed models for current conditions and for climate change projections in 2050. At a broad scale, nutria habitat was located in areas with ≤80 annual freezing days. At local scales, nutria were found in areas with high proportions of freshwater forested‐shrub wetlands close to other wetlands. Managers who are concerned about possible nutria range expansion can use this hierarchical modeling framework to identify areas for surveillance and prioritize control efforts. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.

Climate change induced habitat expansion of nutria (Myocastor coypus) in South Korea

“…However, there were no recorded sightings in either Jeju or Chungcheongbuk Province after 2014, implying significant population declines following the implementation of the eradication project. Globally, temperature is the most importnat factor for biological invasions 14 . In particular, M. coypus are warm-adapted species that are vulnerable to colder weather; therefore, they tend to propagate rapidly in areas with warm winters 23 .…”

“…The threats posed by M. coypus can be exacerbated by changing climates and the correlated expansion of suitable habitat, which enhances reproduction and survival success 13 , 14 . Extreme cold winter temperatures have been suggested to limit M. coypus distribution to areas with ≤ 80 annual freezing days per year 15 ; thus, increasing global temperatures owing to climate change could favor M. coypus habitat expansion 14 .…”

“…The threats posed by M. coypus can be exacerbated by changing climates and the correlated expansion of suitable habitat, which enhances reproduction and survival success 13 , 14 . Extreme cold winter temperatures have been suggested to limit M. coypus distribution to areas with ≤ 80 annual freezing days per year 15 ; thus, increasing global temperatures owing to climate change could favor M. coypus habitat expansion 14 . In South Korea, the mean temperature has increased by 1.8 °C over the last 100 years, and is predicted to increase by an additional 0.63 °C every decade until 2100, with the increase reaching > 4.7 °C by 2100 16 and potentially creating a highly favorable environment for the spread of invasive species in South Korea.…”

An update on the distribution of the coypu, Myocastor coypus, in Asia and Africa through published literature, citizen-science and online platforms

“…Despite its widespread distribution and invasive potential, studies mostly focused on Europe and Northern America (e.g. Hilts et al 2019;Schertler et al 2020). Already two decades ago, Carter and Leonard (2002) pointed out that a comprehensive review on the coypu was not available for Africa and that information for Asian countries was often anecdotal and/or outdated, leading to an unknown status for many countries of introduction in those continents.…”

Prediction of range expansion and estimation of dispersal routes of water deer (Hydropotes inermis) in the transboundary region between China, the Russian Far East and the Korean Peninsula

“…Species distribution modeling (SDM), also called environmental, bioclimatic, species niche, or habitat suitability modeling [10], can be used to assess the habitat use of a species. The results can reveal the factors that may influence the species, and thus may provide important references for management of the species [11]. SDM can also be applied to predict species dispersal under climate change scenarios, as well as to model the results of changes in land use [12].…”