Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios

Lieshout, M. van; Kovats, Sari; Livermore, Matthew; Martens, Pim

doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.009

Cited by 209 publications

(184 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Ecosystem impact studies made additional assumptions about technology and deforestation (Golding and Betts 2008;Metzger et al 2008). Population and health studies have used downscaled population (McCarthy et al 2010) combined with expert judgment on adaptive capacity instead of using the socioeconomic assumptions in the SRES (van Lieshout et al 2004). Overall, studies that use the SRES tend to focus more on impacts than on vulnerability or adaptive capacity, possibly because of the paucity of relevant variables.…”

Section: Global Scenarios Of the Past Decade And Their Use And Shortcmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Possible approaches include aggregate inequality measures at national scale based on social and institutional factors (Kemp-Benedict 2011), a parametric approach focusing on education differentials, a macroeconomic simulation (Hughes et al 2009), and global macro-economic models combined with microsimulation (Busselo et al 2010). Given the importance of multiple scales in IAV analysis, decomposable inequality indicators, such as the Theil index (Theil 1972), are preferable to non-decomposable or partially-decomposable indices like the Gini coefficient.…”

Section: Income Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Projections of access to public health and health care services and burdens of diseases are relevant for vulnerability and adaptation assessments (McCarthy et al 2010;van Lieshout et al 2004). The SSPs could be enriched with projections based on methods such as the WHO global burden of disease (GBD) approach and the methods included in models, such as GISMO and International Futures (IFs).…”

Section: Human Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Levy²,

et al. 2013

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This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first Climatic Change (2014) 122:481-494 DOI 10.1007 This article is part of the Special Issue on "A Framework for the Development of New Socio-economic Scenarios for Climate Change Research" edited by Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Robert Lempert, and Anthony Janetos. provides an overview of uses of social-environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.

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Section: Global Scenarios Of the Past Decade And Their Use And Shortcmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Income Distributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Human Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Levy²,

et al. 2013

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“…Recently, it has been shown that in Botswana, indices of El Niño-related climate variability can serve as the basis of malaria risk prediction and early warning (Lindblade et al, 1999 In both theory and literature, variation in rainfall and temperature will affect observed malaria cases. Apart from climatic influence in malaria transmission, social and economic factors-e.g., population and migration-also play a significant role (Haines et al, 2000;van Lieshout et al, 2004). Moreover, a combination of mutating malaria parasites, resource constrains, and weak health systems, implies low adaptive capacity (Kovats and Haines, 2005).…”

Section: Introduction and Purposementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is central in enhancing malaria control policy measures and informing the design of malaria early warning systems. Due to the fact that climate change by itself will increase vulnerability (Bohle et al, 1994;;van Lieshout et al, 2004), target planning is necessitated by careful consideration of all factors.…”

Section: Introduction and Purposementioning

confidence: 99%

Long-Run Relative Importance of Temperature as the Main Driver to Malaria Transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: A Simple Econometric Approach

et al. 2014

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Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province; determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short and long run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r= 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, and a bi-directional causality exists between rainfall and temperature and temperature to rainfall and from rainfall to temperature, F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14 with 001 . 0   respectively in both cases. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province.

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Microbial Production of Plant‐Derived Pharmaceutical Natural Products through Metabolic Engineering: Artemisinin and beyond

Dietrich

Fortman

Juminaga

et al. 2011

Biocatalysis for Green Chemistry and Chemical Process Development

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Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios

Cited by 209 publications

References 22 publications

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research

Long-Run Relative Importance of Temperature as the Main Driver to Malaria Transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: A Simple Econometric Approach

Microbial Production of Plant‐Derived Pharmaceutical Natural Products through Metabolic Engineering: Artemisinin and beyond

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