Climate change and low species drought tolerance will negatively impact plant richness in the Neotropical seasonally dry forests

Abstract

Neotropical seasonal dry forest (NSDF) is one of the most threatened ecosystems under global climate change (GCC) predictions, with likely species losses and uneven modification of diversity patterns all through its distribution. Nonetheless, few studies have evaluated the GCC impacts on the diversity patterns of NSDF plants. The lack of continental-scale approaches restricts our understanding of GCC consequences in the high beta-diverse NSDF. We showed some potential impacts of GCC on the distributions of over 1000 species of the NSDF, species richness patterns, and species composition of assemblages (beta diversity). We focus on five representative plant families that are abundant, dominant, and have a high endemism rate within the NSDF. These families were Cactaceae, Capparaceae, Fabaceae, Malvaceae, and Zygophyllacea. We reconstructed potential species distributions in the present and future scenarios (2040–2080) considering an intermediate Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenario and two dispersal ability assumptions on the taxa. We correlated climate-induced changes in the species distribution ranges with drought tolerance. We found that, even under a favorable dispersal scenario, species distribution and richness showed significant declines in the future across sites where temperatures are predicted to increase in the future. In Fabaceae, we observed a negative correlation between drought tolerance and changes in species distribution ranges in the future. Our results suggested biotic homogenization across the NSDF, but biotic heterogenization is the likely outcome at the continental scale under dispersal limitations. This information is critical for further planning of conservation actions as it can help to assess the current and future value of NSDF-protected areas and define new areas worth protecting.

Climate‐driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas

“…1200 species) and database of available records per species were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), the Latin American and Caribbean Seasonally Dry Tropical Forest Floristic Network (DRYFLOR; available at: http://www.dryflor.info/data), and supplemented with our fieldwork in specific locations across Mexico and Colombia. First, we carried out a data depuration procedure, that is, we removed records with imprecise occurrence, suspected incorrect taxonomic identity, and those whose associated climate values affected the model's performance (details in Manrique‐Ascencio et al., 2024). Second, we avoided modeling poorly surveyed species since the low sample size in occurrence records can affect the model performance (Elith & Leathwick, 2007; Owens et al., 2013).…”

“…info/ data), and supplemented with our fieldwork in specific locations across Mexico and Colombia. First, we carried out a data depuration procedure, that is, we removed records with imprecise occurrence, suspected incorrect taxonomic identity, and those whose associated climate values affected the model's performance (details in Manrique-Ascencio et al, 2024). Second, we avoided modeling poorly surveyed species since the low sample size in occurrence records can affect the model performance (Elith & Leathwick, 2007;Owens et al, 2013).…”