Climate change and landscape-use patterns influence recent past distribution of giant pandas

Abstract

Climate change is one of the most pervasive threats to biodiversity globally, yet the influence of climate relative to other drivers of species depletion and range contraction remain difficult to disentangle. Here, we examine climatic and non-climatic correlates of giant panda ( Ailuropoda melanoleuca ) distribution using a large-scale 30 year dataset to evaluate whether a changing climate has already influenced panda distribution. We document several climatic patterns, including increasing temperatures, and alterations to seasonal temperature and precipitation. We found that while climatic factors were the most influential predictors of panda distribution, their importance diminished over time, while landscape variables have become relatively more influential. We conclude that the panda's distribution has been influenced by changing climate, but conservation intervention to manage habitat is working to increasingly offset these negative consequences.

Predicting range shifts of the giant pandas under future climate and land use scenarios

“…In this study, we provide the first empirical test of the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the future distribution It has been reported that changes in land-use patterns have an important effect on the distribution and habitat selection of the giant pandas as these changes can have either a positive or negative effect on the habitat of the giant pandas, especially for the forest cover, a key natural resource for the giant pandas (Bai et al, 2020;Tang et al, 2020;Wei et al, 2018). Consistent with these studies, we found that land use variables are important drivers in determining the current distribution of the giant pandas in our study area.…”

“…During this survey, panda presence was determined via signs (e.g., feces, fur, and signs of foraging; State Forestry Administration, 2021 ). In total, 3428 occurrence records for the giant pandas in our study area were obtained from this survey (Tang et al, 2020 ). To be consistent with the spatial resolution of our climate and land use variables (see below) and minimize the sampling bias effect in the occurrence records dataset, we created the same 1 × 1 km grid cells across the study area as the climatic and land use layers and all the occurrence records were overlaid onto these grid cells.…”

“…However, the effect of climate change and land use change, as well as their interactions, on a large‐scale distribution of the giant panda has rarely been explored. Tang et al ( 2020 ) were the first to include dynamic land‐use changes on a large scale to assess the relative importance of climate change and land use change in determining the historical distribution patterns of the giant panda, finding that land use change could offset some of the negative effects of climate change on the giant pandas. Yet, to date, no studies have integrated climate change and land use change to project the future distribution of the giant panda at large scales.…”

“…However, the effect of climate change and land use change, as well as their interactions, on a large-scale distribution of the giant panda has rarely been explored. Tang et al (2020) (1) identify the environmental requirements (i.e., ecological niche) of the giant pandas; (2) assess its habitat suitability under current environmental conditions; and (3) quantify changes in the area of suitable habitat under different future scenarios. To do so, we employed SDMs to project the habitat suitability of the giant pandas under current and future climate and land use conditions.…”

The need for IUCN species distribution update - the case from a large threaten ungulate in Southwest China

“…The distribution of takin in our reassessment makes a clear case for the use of basic occurrence data to reduce inaccuracy, as about 40% of the CDR was outside of their possible distribution area. By contrast, giant panda distribution range in the same region is much more elaborate in shape and closer to their real world distribution (Tang et al, 2020), as the result of enormous monitoring and focal surveys (Zheng et al,2012;Foretry Department of Sichuan Province,2015 ).…”