Climate Change and Geographic Ranges: The Implications for Russian Forests

Noce, Sergio; Caporaso, Luca; Santini, Monia

doi:10.3389/fevo.2019.00057

Cited by 17 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 101 publications

(119 reference statements)

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“…More temperate winters might, over a number of years, enable host species to settle and tick populations to become established in new areas. Model predictions suggest a northward shift in the distribution of several Russian forest species in accordance with changing climate [36]. However, at the scale of one year, tick bite cases in an area are mostly related to tick host-seeking activity in the warm season [17,36], which is not largely influenced by the winter temperature variations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Quantifying the Northward Spread of Ticks (Ixodida) as Climate Warms in Northern Russia

et al. 2021

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Climate change is affecting human health worldwide. In particular, changes to local and global climate parameters influence vector and water-borne diseases like malaria, dengue fever, and tick-borne encephalitis. The Republic of Sakha in northern Russia is no exception. Long-term trends of increasing annual temperatures and thawing permafrost have corresponded with the northward range expansion of tick-species in the Republic. Indigenous communities living in these remote areas may be severely affected by human and livestock diseases introduced by disease vectors like ticks. To better understand the risk of vector-borne diseases in Sakha, we aimed to describe the increase and spatial spread of tick-bite cases in the Republic. Between 2000 and 2018, the frequency of tick bite cases increased 40-fold. At the start of the period, only isolated cases were reported in southern districts, but by 2018, tick bites had been reported in 21 districts in the Republic. This trend coincides with a noticeable increase in the average annual temperature in the region since the 2000s by an average of 1 °C. Maps illustrate the northward spread of tick-bite cases. A negative binomial regression model was used to correlate the increase in cases with a number of climate parameters. Tick bite case frequency per district was significantly explained by average annual temperature, average temperature in the coldest month of the year, the observation year, as well as Selyaninov’s hydrothermal coefficient. These findings contribute to the growing literature that describe the relationship between tick abundance and spread in Northern Latitudes and changes in temperatures and moisture. Future studies might use these and similar results to map and identify areas at risk of infestation by ticks, as climates continue to change in Sakha.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Quantifying the Northward Spread of Ticks (Ixodida) as Climate Warms in Northern Russia

et al. 2021

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“…animals, plants, bacteria), even through the interactions they have with the surrounding natural resources, like water and soil. For example, to reproduce and model, respectively, current and future habitats' ranges by mean of Species Distribution Modelling (SDM), large amount of high quality and up-to-date environmental (especially climate) data is required, to be operated into further indicators proxy of typical climate settings across the domains of interest [5][6][7][8][9] .…”

Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They mainly result from primary -observed or modelled -climate fields (e.g. minimum, maximum and mean temperature, precipitation amount) and contribute to delineate the bioclimatic "envelope" for species in terms of favourable environmental conditions 11,12 , also referred to as "suitability" 7,9 .…”

Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

A new global dataset of bioclimatic indicators

2020

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This study presents a new global gridded dataset of bioclimatic indicators at 0.5° by 0.5° resolution for historical and future conditions. The dataset, called CMCC-BioClimInd, provides a set of 35 bioclimatic indices, expressed as mean values over each time interval, derived from post-processing both climate reanalysis for historical period (1960–1999) and an ensemble of 11 bias corrected CMIP5 simulations under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios for future climate projections along two periods (2040–2079 and 2060–2099). This new dataset complements the availability of spatialized bioclimatic information, crucial aspect in many ecological and environmental wide scale applications and for several disciplines, including forestry, biodiversity conservation, plant and landscape ecology. The data of individual indicators are publicly available for download in the commonly used Network Common Data Form 4 (NetCDF4) format.

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“…Climate change, especially global warming, affects the geographical distribution of species on earth ( Parmesan & Yohe, 2003 ; Noce, Caporaso & Santini, 2019 ; Rodriguez et al, 2020 ). The life cycle of desert locusts usually needs to go through three stages (eggs, nymphs (hoppers), and adults), and the time it takes to transition from one stage to another is highly dependent on weather patterns ( Rainey et al, 1979 ; Symmons & Cressman, 2001 ; Cressman & Stefanski, 2016 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios

Guan

et al. 2021

PeerJ

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Desert locusts are notorious for their widespread distribution and strong destructive power. Their influence extends from the vast arid and semiarid regions of western Africa to northwestern India. Large-scale locust outbreaks can have devastating consequences for food security, and their social impact may be long-lasting. Climate change has increased the uncertainty of desert locust outbreaks, and predicting suitable habitats for this species under climate change scenarios will help humans deal with the potential threat of locust outbreaks. By comprehensively considering climate, soil, and terrain variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential habitats of solitary desert locusts in the 2050s and 2070s under the four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. The modeling results show that the average area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) reached 0.908 ± 0.002 and 0.701, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model performed extremely well and provided outstanding prediction results. The prediction results indicate that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of the potential habitat of solitary desert locusts. With the increase in radiative forcing overtime, the suitable areas for desert locusts will continue to contract, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario, and the moderately and highly suitable areas will decrease by 0.88 × 106 km2 and 1.55 × 106 km2, respectively. Although the potentially suitable area for desert locusts is contracting, the future threat posed by the desert locust to agricultural production and food security cannot be underestimated, given the combination of maintained breeding areas, frequent extreme weather events, pressure from population growth, and volatile sociopolitical environments. In conclusion, methods such as monitoring and early warning, financial support, regional cooperation, and scientific prevention and control of desert locust plagues should be further implemented.

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Climate Change and Geographic Ranges: The Implications for Russian Forests

Cited by 17 publications

References 101 publications

Quantifying the Northward Spread of Ticks (Ixodida) as Climate Warms in Northern Russia

Quantifying the Northward Spread of Ticks (Ixodida) as Climate Warms in Northern Russia

A new global dataset of bioclimatic indicators

The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios

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