The dynamics of the ecosystem represented by vegetation under the influence of human activities have become an important issue in the study of the regional ecological environment. Xinjiang is one of the most ecologically fragile areas in the world, and vegetation changes have received extensive attention. Xinjiang is one of the most ecologically fragile areas in the world, and vegetation changes have received extensive attention. However, the spatiotemporal patterns and evolutionary trends of anthropogenic impacts on vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang are still unclear. In this study, the anthropogenic impacts on vegetation dynamics were quantitatively assessed by combining the improved normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) prediction model and the residual analysis method in Xinjiang, China. The human driving factors were analyzed with the support of a stepwise multiple regression model for vegetation changes at the county scale. Based on trend analysis and the Hurst exponent, the spatiotemporal characteristics and evolutionary trends of the impact of human activities on vegetation change were discussed. The results show that (1) the NDVI values in Xinjiang showed a gradually increasing trend at a rate of 0.005/10 years from 1982 to 2018, and the vegetation dynamics mainly showed significant improvements (57.09% of the vegetated areas), especially for crops. (2) The anthropogenic effects of vegetation changes in Xinjiang mainly included positive impact increases (43.22% of the vegetated areas) from 2000 to 2018. Human activities promoted the increase in the NDVI of various vegetation types. Both the positive and negative impacts of human activities increased over the study period, and the growth rate of the positive influence (0.08%/10 years) was higher than that of the negative influence (0.04%/10 years). (3) The cultivated area, GDP of primary industry, and population are the main anthropogenic factors causing the increase in NDVI, which dominate the vegetation greening in 30.34%, 29.22%, and 28.09% of the counties in Xinjiang, respectively. The animal husbandry population, agricultural population, and livestock number are the main anthropogenic factors causing the decrease in NDVI, which dominate the vegetation degradation in 23.60%, 21.35%, and 17.98% of the counties in Xinjiang, respectively. (4) The evolutionary trend of the anthropogenic impact on vegetation dynamics in Xinjiang will be dominated by anti-persistence (53.84% of the vegetated areas), thereby mainly showing that the positive impacts continued to increase (22.56% of the vegetated areas), especially for crops, shrubs, grasslands, and alpine vegetation. Our results are helpful in understanding the characteristics and evolutionary trends of vegetation changes in arid areas caused by human activities and are of significance as a reference for policymakers to appropriately adjust policy guidance in a timely manner to promote the protection and sustainable development of fragile ecosystems.
Desert locusts are notorious for their widespread distribution and strong destructive power. Their influence extends from the vast arid and semiarid regions of western Africa to northwestern India. Large-scale locust outbreaks can have devastating consequences for food security, and their social impact may be long-lasting. Climate change has increased the uncertainty of desert locust outbreaks, and predicting suitable habitats for this species under climate change scenarios will help humans deal with the potential threat of locust outbreaks. By comprehensively considering climate, soil, and terrain variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential habitats of solitary desert locusts in the 2050s and 2070s under the four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. The modeling results show that the average area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) reached 0.908 ± 0.002 and 0.701, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model performed extremely well and provided outstanding prediction results. The prediction results indicate that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of the potential habitat of solitary desert locusts. With the increase in radiative forcing overtime, the suitable areas for desert locusts will continue to contract, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario, and the moderately and highly suitable areas will decrease by 0.88 × 106 km2 and 1.55 × 106 km2, respectively. Although the potentially suitable area for desert locusts is contracting, the future threat posed by the desert locust to agricultural production and food security cannot be underestimated, given the combination of maintained breeding areas, frequent extreme weather events, pressure from population growth, and volatile sociopolitical environments. In conclusion, methods such as monitoring and early warning, financial support, regional cooperation, and scientific prevention and control of desert locust plagues should be further implemented.
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