Climate change and agricultural vulnerability: a case study of rain-fed wheat in Kairouan, Central Tunisia

Mougou, R.; Mansour, Mohsen; Iglesias, Ana; Chebbi, Rim Zitouna; Battaglini, Antonella

doi:10.1007/s10113-010-0179-4

Cited by 40 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 4 publications

(3 reference statements)

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“…South Asia (Lal 2010;Mirza 2010), Sahelian and northern Africa (Sissoko et al 2010), Ben Mohamed (2010), Mougou et al (2010), Iglesias et al (2010) and parts of Russia (Dronin and Kirilenko 2010) by the time global mean warming reaches around 2°C above preindustrial. Lal (2010) shows that India needs to increase its production by 1.5% per year to feed its developing and growing population, faster than historical experience, but faces likely net cereal production losses in South Asia due to climate change of 4-10% for a 2°C warming.…”

Section: Food Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

et al. 2011

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Defining and operationalizing Article 2 of the UNFCCC remains a challenge. The question of what is dangerous climate change is not a purely scientific one, as danger necessarily has a subjective dimension and its definition requires judgment and precaution. The papers in this special issue of Regional Environmental Change attempt to navigate this problem, by offering an overview of the latest scientific findings in the context of risks and uncertainties, and assess some key vulnerabilities that might lead to dangerous climate change. This synthesis provides an overview of the papers in this issue and looks at four areas of possible dangerous climate changeadverse declines in regional food and water security, loss of arctic sea ice with projected extinction of species, largescale sea-level rise and loss of coral reef systems. These issues affect a number of different regions including Africa, South Asia, and Small Island Developing States. Significant risks to vulnerable regions and systems at warming levels of 1.5-2°C above pre-industrial are identified. The direct effects of CO 2 concentration increases in terms of ocean acidification are identified as relevant to Article 2 because of the risks posed to coral reefs. Ultimate CO 2 stabilization levels that allow for the long-term viability of coral reefs likely are below 350 ppm. The paper concludes by arguing that the emission reduction pledges made by countries under the Copenhagen Accord will not suffice to prevent dangerous climate change.

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Section: Food Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

et al. 2011

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“…Lhomme et al (2009) simulated durum wheat production under climate change conditions for two regions: Jendouba and Kairouan, respectively situated in the north and the center of Tunisia; they are characterized by a typical Mediterranean climate. Mougou et al (2011) assessed the impact of projected climate change on wheat yield and the wheat growing season duration using the IPCC, 2001 scenarios of temperature increase: IS92c (11.3 C), IS92a (12 C), IS92e (12.5 C), and (14 C). A simple crop model was used for the simulation of the 2071À2100 climate projection.…”

Section: The Impact Of Climate Change On Wheat Production In Tunisia'mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The impact of climate change on wheat production has been evaluated with the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model using previous simulation findings. However, Mougou et al (2011) showed that in the Kairouan region, when applying the scenario of combined effect of temperature increase (11.5 C) and rainfall decrease (210%), wheat production can fall by 248%. Lhomme et al (2009) showed probable decreases in crop productivity in Jendouba (northern region with semiarid climate) but an increase in Kairouan (the center region with arid climate).…”

Section: The Impact Of Climate Change On Wheat Production In Tunisia'mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results showed a disparity in production according to the study region and kind of scenarios used. Mougou et al (2011) predicted that by 2100 in the Kairounan region, the wheat growing season may be shortened by 10, 16, 20, and 30 d, respectively, for 1.3 C, 2 C, 2.5 C, and 4 C temperature conditions. However, Mougou et al (2011) showed that in the Kairouan region, when applying the scenario of combined effect of temperature increase (11.5 C) and rainfall decrease (210%), wheat production can fall by 248%.…”

Section: The Impact Of Climate Change On Wheat Production In Tunisia'mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Vulnerability of Tunisian Agriculture to Climate Change

Mansour¹,

Hachicha²

2014

Emerging Technologies and Management of Crop Stress Tolerance

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“…The northwest Maghreb (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) is critically dependent on climate because the main occupation of their populace is subsistence agriculture, so any increase in rainfall variability could seriously affect whole countries (Mougou et al 2011). The knowledge of the present climate and the pro-jected changes is crucial to aid in the modifications that will be needed to help the agricultural system adapt (Rosenberg 1992).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation of present-climate precipitation in 25 km resolution regional climate model simulations over Northwest Africa

Romera¹,

Sánchez²,

Domínguez³

et al. 2015

Clim. Res.

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Risks related to characteristics of future precipitation change over northern Africa (decreasing mean precipitation, floods and droughts) have been highlighted by several authors, but the scarcity of studies in this area of Africa has been noted by IPCC. We analysed the northwestern African domain for present-day climate (1989 to 2008) precipitation features from a set of 5 high-resolution (25 km) regional climate models (RCMs) from the Spanish ESCENA project. The evaluation of present-climate RCMs simulations was done by comparing the results with 4 different observational databases. The analysis of the spatial distribution of mean precipitation and the annual cycle revealed a complex spatial distribution of rainfall depending on area; hence, a more specific analysis subdividing the domain into 8 subregions was conducted. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the precipitation pattern in the studied domain is exemplified by the extreme events (heavy precipitation days oscillated between 4 and 16 d yr −1 and consecutive dry days between 240 and 330 d) and annual anomalies analyses (values between −50% and +100%). The study reveals many robust precipitation features over the region, but also significant differences between the models, with a spread larger than 70% in some subregions, pointing to the need for a set of RCMs and the importance of high resolution in a very complex domain. As regional models are able to describe the basic precipitation features over the region, they can be used to assess the changes projected by climate change simulations.

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Climate change and agricultural vulnerability: a case study of rain-fed wheat in Kairouan, Central Tunisia

Cited by 40 publications

References 4 publications

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

Climate hotspots: key vulnerable regions, climate change and limits to warming

The Vulnerability of Tunisian Agriculture to Climate Change

Evaluation of present-climate precipitation in 25 km resolution regional climate model simulations over Northwest Africa

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