Climate change, ambient ozone, and health in 50 US cities

Abstract

We investigated how climate change could affect ambient ozone concentrations and the subsequent human health impacts. Hourly concentrations were estimated for 50 eastern US cities for five representative summers each in the 1990s and 2050s, reflecting current and projected future climates, respectively. Estimates of future concentrations were based on the IPCC A2 scenario using global climate, regional climate, and regional air quality models. This work does not explore the effects of future changes in anthropogenic emissions, but isolates the impact of altered climate on ozone and health. The cities' ozone levels are estimated to increase under predicted future climatic conditions, with the largest increases in cities with present-day high pollution. On average across the 50 cities, the summertime daily 1-h maximum increased 4.8 ppb, with the largest increase at 9.6 ppb. The average number of days/summer exceeding the 8-h regulatory standard increased 68%. Elevated ozone levels correspond to approximately a 0.11% to 0.27% increase in daily total mortality. While actual future ozone concentrations depend on climate and other influences such as changes in emissions of anthropogenic precursors, the results presented here Climatic Change (2007) 82: [61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76]

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

“…There is a growing body of evidence that climate change will have broad negative impacts on the distribution and toxicity of environmental contaminants (Bell et al, 2007;Buckman et al, 2007;Confalonieri et al, 2007;Dentener et al, 2006;Fiala et al, 2003;Hogrefe et al, 2004;Knowlton et al, 2004;Macdonald et al, 2005;Patra et al, 2007;Schiedek et al, 2007;Stevenson et al, 2006). However, many areas merit further examination.…”

“…Qian et al (2008) found a synergistic effect of PM 10 and high temperatures on daily cardio-respiratory (Bell et al, 2007;Confalonieri et al, 2007;Dominici et al, 2006;Fiala et al, 2003;IPCC, 2007a;Katsouyanni et al, 1993;Knowlton et al, 2004;Koken et al, 2003;Mauzerall et al, 2005;Ordonez et al, 2005;Rainham and Smoyer-Tomic, 2003;Ren and Tong, 2006) ▪ The elderly and individuals with pre-existing cardio-respiratory disease may be more vulnerable to these effects Altered exposure and risk ▪ Some populations may experience increases or decreases in POP exposures and health risks depending on the region and diet of exposed individuals (Bard, 1999;Gordon, 1997;McKone et al, 1996;Watkinson et al, 2003) ▪ Pesticides may impair mechanisms of temperature regulation especially during times of thermal stress Increased susceptibility to pathogens ▪ Toxicants can suppress immune function, and climate-induced shifts in disease vector range will result in novel pathogen exposure (Abadin et al, 2007;Haines et al, 2006;Lipp et al, 2002;Nagayama et al, 2007;Patz et al, 2005;Rogers and Randolph, 2000;Smialowicz et al, 2001) ▪ Immune system impairment linked to toxicants may increase human vulnerability to climate shifts in pathogens ▪ Low-income populations, infants, children, and the chronically ill may be more susceptible exposures may sensitize individuals to allergic disease ▪ Low-income populations, infants, children, and the chronically ill may be more susceptible mortality in Wuhan, China. The PM 10 effects were strongest on extremely high temperature days (daily average temperature 33.1°C) and weakest during normal temperature days (daily average temperature 18°C).…”

“…However, a number of studies suggest that the toxicity of ozone and PM will be exacerbated with global warming, and some of these data support that older adults will be especially vulnerable (Bell et al, 2007;Confalonieri et al, 2007;Dominici et al, 2006;Fiala et al, 2003;IPCC, 2007c;Katsouyanni et al, 1993;Knowlton et al, 2004;Koken et al, 2003;Mauzerall et al, 2005;Ordonez et al, 2005;Rainham and Smoyer-Tomic, 2003;Ren and Tong, 2006). Other potential interactions between climate change and toxicant exposure include increased susceptibility to pathogens (Abadin et al, 2007;Nagayama et al, 2007;Smialowicz et al, 2001) and aeroallergens (D'Amato et al, 2002;Diaz-Sanchez et al, 2003;Epstein, 2005;Janssen et al, 2003).…”

“…Modeling studies also show increased mortality and morbidity with increased ozone exposure coupled with global warming (Bell et al, 2007;Knowlton et al, 2004;Mauzerall et al, 2005;Rainham and Smoyer-Tomic, 2003). For example, using the IPCC A2 climate scenario (i.e., high growth of CO 2 ), a 4.5% increase in ozone-related deaths in the U.S. from climate change was modeled for the mid 2050s compared to the 1990s (Knowlton et al, 2004).…”

“…For example, using the IPCC A2 climate scenario (i.e., high growth of CO 2 ), a 4.5% increase in ozone-related deaths in the U.S. from climate change was modeled for the mid 2050s compared to the 1990s (Knowlton et al, 2004). Similarly, Bell et al (2007) estimated elevated ozone in 50 U.S. cities applying the IPCC A2 climate scenario and found a corresponding increase in daily total mortality of 0.11% to 0.27%. By examining cardio-respiratory mortality in Toronto, Canada from 1980 to 1996, Rainham et al (2003) detected a small, but consistent effect of air pollution (ozone, NOx, SO 2 , CO, and PM 10 ) on temperature/humidity-related mortality.…”