Associations Between Simulated Future Changes in Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health

A temperature binning approach for multi-sector climate impact analysis

“…All the sectoral impact models considered in this analysis show a net positive relationship at the national scale between increasing temperature and damages. These sectors cover a wide range of impacts in the US, though some key impacts from the EPA (2017) report are not yet represented: one important example would be the impacts of future warming on air quality, including ozone and fine particulates ( Fann et al 2015 ; Fann et al 2016 ; Fann et al 2021 ; Garcia-Menendez et al 2015 ). The results presented here can be used to discuss impacts of climate on diverse sectors at different temperature thresholds or to inform damage functions for reduced form models.…”

Health Impacts of Climate Change as Contained in Economic Models Estimating the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide

“…This may be partially due to the need for updated damage functions but is also attributed in part to the observation that the majority of noncommunicable damages do not occur in the near-term which further minimizes their impact as a contributor to current SC-CO 2 estimates (due to the discounting of consumption and its loss over time).In addition to updating the form and function of the concentrations-response functions that describe the relationship between temperature and existing health endpoints in the FUND model, there is also a pressing need to incorporate other known climate-related health impacts into the model. In particular the health impacts from changes in ambient air quality (due to changes in pollutant concentrations from altered atmospheric chemical processes [Fann et al, 2021]; temperature-and methane-driven influences on ozone formation [Davis et al, 2011…”

“…This may be partially due to the need for updated damage functions but is also attributed in part to the observation that the majority of non-communicable damages do not occur in the near-term which further minimizes their impact as a contributor to current SC-CO2 estimates (due to the discounting of consumption and its loss over time).In addition to updating the form and function of the concentrations-response functions that describe the relationship between temperature and existing health endpoints in the FUND model, there is also a pressing need to incorporate other known climate-related health impacts into the model. In particular the health impacts from changes in ambient air quality [due to changes in pollutant concentrations from altered atmospheric chemical processes (Fann et al, 2021); temperature-and methane-driven influences on ozone formation (Davis et al, 2011;Van Dingenen et al, 2018); impacts on aeroallergens and respiratory disease (Albertine et al, 2014); changes in the frequency and magnitude of wildfirerelated air pollution (Barbero et al, 2015); and changes in the frequency and magnitude of dust storms (Munson et al, 2011;Tong et al, 2017)], additional vector-borne diseases (Gage et al, 2008), food related infection (Boxall et al, 2009;Lake et al, 2009), reduced nutrient content in crops from CO2 fertilization (Beach et al, 2019), increased exposure to ultraviolet radiation due to stratospheric ozone depletion by nitrous oxide (Portmann et al, 2012), and impacts on mental health and well-being (Bei et al, 2013;Dodgen et al, 2016;Hanigan et al, 2012;Kessler et al, 2008) all are pertinent health endpoints that should be included in updated versions of the FUND model. Successfully incorporating these health endpoints will require the coordinated effort between economists and health researchers to ensure its validity and accuracy.…”

Characterizing and quantifying uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts on air quality

“…Under a warmer climate, projected changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and natural emissions will deteriorate air quality over many populated areas [3]. This climate-induced impact on air quality, commonly termed the climate penalty, is distinct from changes brought about by changing pollutant emissions and can have significant public health and economic consequences [4][5][6][7][8]. The Fourth National Climate Assessment projects that in the absence of climate policy, by 2090 the climate penalty on ozone (O 3 ) pollution will annually cause 500 additional deaths and cost $8 billion in the U.S., compared to air quality under a climate-mitigation pathway [6,9].…”