Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs

Sofiev, M.; Winebrake, James J.; Johansson, Lasse; Carr, Edward W.; Prank, Marje; Soares, Joana; Vira, Julius; Kouznetsov, Rostislav; Jalkanen, Jukka-Pekka; Corbett, James J.

doi:10.1038/s41467-017-02774-9

Cited by 308 publications

(230 citation statements)

References 79 publications

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“…Our findings are undergoing a real-world test as International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations (International Maritime Organization, 2016; Sofiev et al, 2018) limiting fuel sulfur content to 0.5% by mass (from the present standard of 3.5%) came into effect on 1 January 2020. Although the fuel used will still contain some sulfur content, the particles produced by ships under the new regulations may be too small to effectively serve as cloud condensation nuclei at the relatively low supersaturations characteristic of marine stratocumulus clouds (Petzold et al, 2010).…”

Section: Implications For 2020 International Maritime Organization Rementioning

confidence: 93%

“…To date, however, studies using satellite remote sensing have been unable to determine whether shipping emissions have a discernable, climatically relevant impact on cloud-radiative properties (Peters et al, 2011;Schreier et al, 2007). This is surprising, as global climate models indicate cloud responses to shipping emissions should produce a substantial radiative effect (Capaldo et al, 1999;Lauer et al, 2007;Partanen et al, 2013;Peters et al, 2014;Righi et al, 2011;Sofiev et al, 2018).…”

Section: Tracks Without a Trace?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Whereas observations show a small or unclear impact of shipping on global ACI, climate models (Capaldo et al, 1999;Lauer et al, 2007;Partanen et al, 2013;Peters et al, 2014;Righi et al, 2011;Sofiev et al, 2018) have produced substantial radiative forcings (energy imbalances) ranging from −0.06 to −0.6 W/m 2 . A model known to produce sizable ACI effects from shipping emissions was sampled using the aforementioned trajectory technique of Peters et al (2011) but also could not produce a clear signal, demonstrating that detection is hampered by the high meteorological variability of tropical low cloud properties and the lack of knowledge of what cloud properties would be in the absence of anthropogenic aerosol perturbations (Peters et al, 2014).…”

Section: Tracks Without a Trace?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Substantial Cloud Brightening From Shipping in Subtropical Low Clouds

et al. 2020

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The influence of aerosol particles on cloud reflectivity remains one of the largest sources of uncertainty in our understanding of anthropogenic climate change. Commercial shipping constitutes a large and concentrated aerosol perturbation in a meteorological regime where clouds have a disproportionally large effect on climate. Yet, to date, studies have been unable to detect climatologically relevant cloud radiative effects from shipping, despite models indicating that the cloud response should produce a sizable negative radiative forcing (perturbation to Earth's energy balance). We attribute a significant increase in cloud reflectivity to enhanced cloud droplet number concentrations within a major shipping corridor in the southeast Atlantic. Prevailing winds constrain emissions around the corridor, which cuts through a climatically important region of expansive low cloud cover. We use universal kriging, a classic geostatistical method, to estimate what cloud properties would have been in the absence of shipping. In the morning, cloud brightening is consistent with changes in microphysics alone, whereas in the afternoon, increases in cloud brightness from microphysical changes are offset by decreases in the total amount of cloud water. We calculate an effective radiative forcing within the southeast Atlantic shipping corridor of approximately −2 W/m2. Several years of data are required to identify a clear signal. Extrapolating our results globally, we calculate an effective radiative forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interactions in low clouds of −1.0 W/m2 (95% confidence interval: −1.6 to −0.4 W/m2). The unique setup in the southeast Atlantic could be an ideal test for the representation of aerosol‐cloud interactions in climate models.

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Section: Implications For 2020 International Maritime Organization Rementioning

confidence: 93%

Section: Tracks Without a Trace?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Tracks Without a Trace?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Substantial Cloud Brightening From Shipping in Subtropical Low Clouds

et al. 2020

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“…Scales of the SILAM applications vary from gammamesoscale up to global with characteristic resolution of 0.1-0.5 • (Lehtomäki et al, 2018;Sofiev et al, 2018). SILAM is a part of Copernicus Atmospheric Service CAMS-50 (Marécal et al, 2015).…”

Section: A4 Fmi Silammentioning

confidence: 99%

Current state of the global operational aerosol multi‐model ensemble: An update from the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP)

Xian¹,

Reid²,

Hyer³

et al. 2019

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

Self Cite

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Since the first International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) multi‐model ensemble (MME) study, the number of ICAP global operational aerosol models has increased from five to nine. An update of the current ICAP status is provided, along with an evaluation of the performance of ICAP‐MME over 2012–2017, with a focus on June 2016–May 2017. Evaluated with ground‐based Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and data assimilation quality MODerate‐resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) retrieval products, the ICAP‐MME AOD consensus remains the overall top‐scoring and most consistent performer among all models in terms of root‐mean‐square error (RMSE), bias and correlation for total, fine‐ and coarse‐mode AODs as well as dust AOD; this is similar to the first ICAP‐MME study. Further, over the years, the performance of ICAP‐MME is relatively stable and reliable compared to more variability in the individual models. The extent to which the AOD forecast error of ICAP‐MME can be predicted is also examined. Leading predictors are found to be the consensus mean and spread. Regression models of absolute forecast errors were built for AOD forecasts of different lengths for potential applications. ICAP‐MME performance in terms of modal AOD RMSEs of the 21 regionally representative sites over 2012–2017 suggests a general tendency for model improvements in fine‐mode AOD, especially over Asia. No significant improvement in coarse‐mode AOD is found overall for this time period.

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“…Ship emissions also have an impact on human health (Anenberg et al, 2019;Corbett et al, 1999;Corbett et al, 2007;Eyring et al, 2010;Sofiev et al, 2018;Tian et al, 2013). Similarly, Corbett et al (2007) estimated that ship-related PM 2.5 were responsible for 60,000 cardiopulmonary and lung cancer deaths worldwide in 2002.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ship Emission Impacts on Air Quality and Human Health in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region, China, in 2015, With Projections to 2030

Chen

Saikawa

Comer³

et al. 2019

GeoHealth

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Ship emissions contribute to air pollution, increasing the adverse health impacts on people living in coastal cities. We estimated the impacts caused by ship emissions, both on air quality and human health, in 2015 and future (2030) within the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China. In addition, we assessed the potential health benefits of implementing an Emission Control Area (ECA) in the region by predicting avoided premature mortality with and without an ECA. In 2015, ship emissions increased PM2.5 concentrations and O3 mixing ratios by 1.4 μg/m3 and 1.9 ppb, respectively, within the PRD region. This resulted in 466 and 346 excess premature acute deaths from PM2.5 and O3, respectively. Premature mortality from chronic exposures was even more significant, with 2,085 and 852 premature deaths from ship‐related PM2.5 and O3, respectively. In 2030, we projected the future ship emissions with and without an ECA, using two possible land scenarios. With an ECA, we predicted 76% reductions in SO2 and 13% reductions in NOx from the shipping sector. Assuming constant land emissions from 2015 in 2030 (2030 Constant scenario), we found that an ECA could avoid 811 PM2.5‐related and 108 O3‐related deaths from chronic exposures. Using 2030 Projected scenario for land emissions, we found that an ECA would avoid 1,194 PM2.5‐related and 160 O3‐related premature deaths in 2030. In both scenarios, implementing an ECA resulted in 30% fewer PM2.5‐related premature deaths and 10% fewer O3‐related premature deaths, illustrating the importance of reducing ship emissions.

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Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs

Cited by 308 publications

References 79 publications

Substantial Cloud Brightening From Shipping in Subtropical Low Clouds

Substantial Cloud Brightening From Shipping in Subtropical Low Clouds

Current state of the global operational aerosol multi‐model ensemble: An update from the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP)

Ship Emission Impacts on Air Quality and Human Health in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) Region, China, in 2015, With Projections to 2030

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