Classifying global catastrophic risks

Avin, Shahar; Wintle, Bonnie; Weitzdörfer, Julius; hÉigeartaigh, Seán Ó; Sutherland, William J.; Rees, M. J.

doi:10.1016/j.futures.2018.02.001

Cited by 68 publications

(49 citation statements)

References 10 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…For this reason we do not try to classify risks by the kind of natural process they represent, or which life support system they undermine (unlike e.g. Avin et al, ).…”

Section: Our Framework For Discussing Extinction Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Avin et al () have recently presented a classification of risks to the lives of a significant proportion of the human population. They classify such risks based on ‘critical systems affected, global spread mechanism, and prevention and mitigation failure’.…”

Section: Our Framework For Discussing Extinction Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both the risks discussed by Avin et al () and extinction risks by definition involve risks of a massive loss of lives. This sets them apart from other risks where the adverse outcome would also have global scale but could be limited to less severe damage such as economic losses.…”

Section: Our Framework For Discussing Extinction Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our classification does not speak to this implementation step. Avin et al () congenially address just this challenge in their classification of prevention and mitigation failures.…”

Section: Classification By Origin: Types Of Prevention Failuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We look at classifying extinction risks in three different ways, which affect how we can intervene to reduce risk. First, how does it start causing damage? Second, how does it reach the scale of a global catastrophe? Third, how does it reach everyone? In all of these three phases there is a defence layer that blocks most risks: First, we can prevent catastrophes from occurring. Second, we can respond to catastrophes before they reach a global scale. Third, humanity is resilient against extinction even in the face of global catastrophes. The largest probability of extinction is posed when all of these defences are weak, that is, by risks we are unlikely to prevent, unlikely to successfully respond to, and unlikely to be resilient against. We find that it's usually best to invest significantly into strengthening all three defence layers. We also suggest ways to do so tailored to the classes of risk we identify. Lastly, we discuss the importance of underlying risk factorsevents or structural conditions that may weaken the defence layers even without posing a risk of immediate extinction themselves. Policy implications• We can usually best reduce extinction risk by splitting our budget between all defence layers.• We should include measures that reduce whole classes of risks, such as research uncovering currently unseen risk. We should also address risk factors that would not cause extinction themselves but weaken our defences, for example, bad global governance.

show abstract

“…For this reason we do not try to classify risks by the kind of natural process they represent, or which life support system they undermine (unlike e.g. Avin et al, ).…”

Section: Our Framework For Discussing Extinction Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Our Framework For Discussing Extinction Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Our Framework For Discussing Extinction Risksmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Our classification does not speak to this implementation step. Avin et al () congenially address just this challenge in their classification of prevention and mitigation failures.…”

Section: Classification By Origin: Types Of Prevention Failuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Richard Posner (, p. 6) defines ‘catastrophe’ as ‘an event that is believed to have a very low probability of materializing but that if it does materialize will produce a harm so great and sudden as to seem discontinuous with the flow of events that preceded it’. The GCR framework is concerned with low‐probability, high‐consequence scenarios that threaten humankind as a whole (Avin et al, ; Beck, ; Kuhlemann, ; Liu, ).…”

Section: Anthropogenic Existential Threatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Existential Security: Towards a Security Framework for the Survival of Humanity

Sears

2020

Global Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Humankind faces a growing spectrum of anthropogenic existential threats to human civilization and survival. This article therefore aims to develop a new framework for security policy -'existential security'that puts the survival of humanity at its core. It begins with a discussion of the definition and spectrum of 'anthropogenic existential threats', or those threats that have their origins in human agency and could cause, minimally, civilizational collapse, or maximally, human extinction. It argues that anthropogenic existential threats should be conceptualized as a matter of 'security', which follows a logic of protection from threats to the survival of some referent object. However, the existing frameworks for security policy -'human security' and 'national security'have serious limitations for addressing anthropogenic existential threats; application of the 'national security' frame could even exacerbate existential threats to humanity. Thus, the existential security frame is developed as an alternative for security policy, which takes 'humankind' as its referent object against anthropogenic existential threats to human civilization and survival. Policy Implications• 'Anthropogenic existential threats' refer to a class of threats that have their origins in human agency and could bring about, at the minimum, the collapse of civilization, or, at the maximum, human extinction. The spectrum of anthropogenic existential threats is broad and growing.

show abstract

The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

Moersdorf,

Rivers,

Denkenberger

et al. 2023

Global Challenges

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Modern civilization relies on a complex, globally interconnected industrial agriculture system to produce food. Its unprecedented yields hinge on external inputs like machinery, fertilizers, and pesticides, rendering it vulnerable to disruptions in production and international trade. Such a disruption could be caused by large‐scale damage to the electrical grid. Solar storms, nuclear detonations in the upper atmosphere, pandemics, or cyber‐attacks, could cause this severe damage to electrical infrastructure. To assess the impact of such a global catastrophic infrastructure loss on major food crops (corn, rice, soybean, wheat), we employ a generalized linear model. The predictions show a crop‐specific yield reduction between 15% and 37% in phase 1, the year after the catastrophe, assuming rationed use of fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel stocks. In phase 2, when all stocks are depleted, yields decrease by 35%–48%. Soybean is less affected in phase 1, while all crops experience strong declines in phase 2. Europe, North and South America, and parts of India, China, and Indonesia face major yield reductions, potentially up to 75%, while most African countries are less affected. These findings underscore the necessity for preparation by highlighting the vulnerability of the food system.

show abstract

Classifying global catastrophic risks

Cited by 68 publications

References 10 publications

Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter

Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter

Existential Security: Towards a Security Framework for the Survival of Humanity

The Fragile State of Industrial Agriculture: Estimating Crop Yield Reductions in a Global Catastrophic Infrastructure Loss Scenario

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About