Classical metapopulation theory as a useful paradigm for the conservation of an endangered amphibian

Heard, Geoffrey W.; Scroggie, Michael P.; Malone, Brian S.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2012.01.018

Cited by 56 publications

(98 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…In the vicinity of Melbourne, the capital city of Victoria, urban expansion is a key threat to this species. Developing a model of the extinction and colonization dynamics of L. raniformis is a priority for understanding the species' conservation requirements (Heard et al, 2012b). Developing a model of the extinction and colonization dynamics of L. raniformis is a priority for understanding the species' conservation requirements (Heard et al, 2012b).…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We built a Bayesian regression-based SPOM for L. raniformis using occupancy data from 167 wetlands monitored across northern Melbourne between the 2001/2002 and 2006/ 2007 breeding seasons (Heard et al, 2012b). Wetlands included slow-flowing pools along streams, swamps, ponds, farm dams and quarry pits.…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Adjusting wetland area for hydroperiod accounted for the fact that wetland carrying capacity should be closely tied to fluctuations in water level for L. raniformis, due to its highly aquatic nature (Heard et al, 2008(Heard et al, , 2012b. Adjusting wetland area for hydroperiod accounted for the fact that wetland carrying capacity should be closely tied to fluctuations in water level for L. raniformis, due to its highly aquatic nature (Heard et al, 2008(Heard et al, , 2012b.…”

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Bayesian model of metapopulation viability, with application to an endangered amphibian

Heard

McCarthy

Scroggie

et al. 2013

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim Population viability analysis (PVA) is used to quantify the risks faced by species under alternative management regimes. Bayesian PVAs allow uncertainty in the parameters of the underlying population model to be easily propagated through to the predictions. We developed a Bayesian stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM) and used this model to assess the viability of a metapopulation of the growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis) under different urbanization scenarios.Location Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. MethodsWe fitted a Bayesian model that accounted for imperfect detection to a multiseason occupancy dataset for L. raniformis collected across northern Melbourne. The probability of extinction was modelled as a function of effective wetland area, aquatic vegetation cover and connectivity, using logistic regression. The probability of colonization was modelled as a function of connectivity alone. We then simulated the dynamics of a metapopulation of L. raniformis subject to differing levels of urbanization and compensatory wetland creation. Uncertainty was propagated by conducting simulations for 5000 estimates of the parameters of the models for extinction and colonization.Results There was considerable uncertainty in both the probability of quasiextinction and the minimum number of occupied wetlands under most urbanization scenarios. Uncertainty around the change in quasi-extinction risk and minimum metapopulation size increased with increasing habitat loss. For our focal metapopulation, the analysis revealed that significant investment in new wetlands may be required to offset the impacts of urbanization.Main conclusions Bayesian approaches to PVA allow parametric uncertainty to be propagated and considered in management decisions. They also provide means of identifying parameters that represent critical uncertainties, and, through the use of informative priors, can easily assimilate new data to reduce parametric uncertainty. These advantages, and the ready availability of software to run Bayesian analyses, will ensure that Bayesian approaches are used increasingly for PVAs.

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Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A Bayesian model of metapopulation viability, with application to an endangered amphibian

Heard

McCarthy

Scroggie

et al. 2013

Diversity and Distributions

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…spatial structure and configuration of habitat networks can greatly affect amphibians by influencing the potential for dispersal between populations and breeding sites (Marsh and Trenham 2001;Smith and Green 2005). By restricting gene flow (McRae and Beier 2007;Semlitsch 2008;Baguette et al 2013), altering metapopulation and source-sink dynamics (Hanski and Gilpin 1991;Smith and Green 2005), reducing the ability to adapt to changing environmental conditions (Nuñez et al 2013;Saura et al 2014), or by encouraging the spread of disease (Perkins et al 2009), changes to connectivity can critically affect the persistence of amphibian populations (Marsh and Trenham 2001;Heard et al 2012a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Surface water network structure, landscape resistance to movement and flooding vital for maintaining ecological connectivity across Australia’s largest river basin

2015

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Context Landscape-scale research quantifying ecological connectivity is required to maintain the viability of populations in dynamic environments increasingly impacted by anthropogenic modification and environmental change.Objective To evaluate how surface water network structure, landscape resistance to movement, and flooding affect the connectivity of amphibian habitats within the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), a highly modified but ecologically significant region of southeastern Australia. Methods We evaluated potential connectivity network graphs based on circuit theory, Euclidean and least-cost path distances for two amphibian species with different dispersal abilities, and used graph theory metrics to compare regional-and patch-scale connectivity across a range of flooding scenarios. Results Circuit theory graphs were more connected than Euclidean and least-cost equivalents in floodplain environments, and less connected in highly modified or semi-arid regions. Habitat networks were highly fragmented for both species, with flooding playing a crucial role in facilitating landscape-scale connectivity. Both formally and informally protected habitats were more likely to form important connectivity ''hubs'' or ''stepping stones'' compared to nonprotected habitats, and increased in importance with flooding. Conclusions Surface water network structure and the quality of the intervening landscape matrix combine to affect the connectivity of MDB amphibian habitats in ways which vary spatially and in response to flooding. Our findings highlight the importance of utilising organism-relevant connectivity models which incorporate landscape resistance to movement, and accounting for dynamic landscape-scale processes such as flooding when quantifying connectivity to inform the conservation of dynamic and highly modified environments.

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“…Heard, Scroggie, & Malone (2012) showed that the population dynamics of an Endangered species of aquatic-breeding hylid frog conforms to classical meta-population theory, and therefore could be used to guide conservation planning for the species and potentially for many other species of aquatic-breeding amphibians. Although the population dynamics of H. pickersgilli have not yet been tested in this respect, the urgency for conservation planning for this species makes it improbable that this test will be done before conservation decisions have to be made.…”

Section: Use Of the Potential Populations Mapmentioning

confidence: 96%

Using predictive modelling to guide the conservation of a critically endangered coastal wetland amphibian

Tarrant¹,

Armstrong²

2013

Journal for Nature Conservation

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Classical metapopulation theory as a useful paradigm for the conservation of an endangered amphibian

Cited by 56 publications

References 39 publications

A Bayesian model of metapopulation viability, with application to an endangered amphibian

A Bayesian model of metapopulation viability, with application to an endangered amphibian

Surface water network structure, landscape resistance to movement and flooding vital for maintaining ecological connectivity across Australia’s largest river basin

Using predictive modelling to guide the conservation of a critically endangered coastal wetland amphibian

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