A Bayesian model of metapopulation viability, with application to an endangered amphibian

Heard, Geoffrey W.; McCarthy, Michael A.; Scroggie, Michael P.; Baumgartner, John B.; Parris, Kirsten M.

doi:10.1111/ddi.12052

Cited by 65 publications

(95 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The relative risks demonstrate the combined impacts of climate change and land clearance and have the potential to allow us to identify which regions and patches are more vulnerable to the threats and potentially rank management strategies. Heard et al (2013) provide a similar example in which population and spatial models can be used to support decision-making under uncertainty. Chiapas North will also experience the smallest and most dispersed patches by 2080 (Table 3c), placing area-demanding (quetzal) or low-mobility species (frog) particularly at risk in this region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Reyes

Nicholson

Baxter

et al. 2013

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim To quantify the consequences of major threats to biodiversity, such as climate and land-use change, it is important to use explicit measures of species persistence, such as extinction risk. The extinction risk of metapopulations can be approximated through simple models, providing a regional snapshot of the extinction probability of a species. We evaluated the extinction risk of three species under different climate change scenarios in three different regions of the Mexican cloud forest, a highly fragmented habitat that is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Location Cloud forests in Mexico.Methods Using Maxent, we estimated the potential distribution of cloud forest for three different time horizons (2030, 2050 and 2080) and their overlap with protected areas. Then, we calculated the extinction risk of three contrasting vertebrate species for two scenarios: (1) climate change only (all suitable areas of cloud forest through time) and (2) climate and land-use change (only suitable areas within a currently protected area), using an explicit patch-occupancy approximation model and calculating the joint probability of all populations becoming extinct when the number of remaining patches was less than five. ResultsOur results show that the extent of environmentally suitable areas for cloud forest in Mexico will sharply decline in the next 70 years. We discovered that if all habitat outside protected areas is transformed, then only species with small area requirements are likely to persist. With habitat loss through climate change only, high dispersal rates are sufficient for persistence, but this requires protection of all remaining cloud forest areas.Main conclusions Even if high dispersal rates mitigate the extinction risk of species due to climate change, the synergistic impacts of changing climate and land use further threaten the persistence of species with higher area requirements. Our approach for assessing the impacts of threats on biodiversity is particularly useful when there is little time or data for detailed population viability analyses.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Reyes

Nicholson

Baxter

et al. 2013

Diversity and Distributions

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“…The relative effect of mitigation strategies on metapopulation dynamics is relatively well-studied (Heard et al 2013, Rose et al 2016); however, the optimal timing of habitat creation if financial compensation received for habitat destruction can accrue interest over time has not been assessed. The relative effect of mitigation strategies on metapopulation dynamics is relatively well-studied (Heard et al 2013, Rose et al 2016); however, the optimal timing of habitat creation if financial compensation received for habitat destruction can accrue interest over time has not been assessed.…”

Section: Case Study 1: Growling Grass Frogmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Both species persist as metapopulations and are sensitive to habitat loss (Westphal et al 2003, Heard et al 2013), but such loss may be offset through habitat creation (new wetlands in the case of the frog; new woodland patches in the case of the Southern Emu-wren). We developed case studies for two endangered Australian species with contrasting traits: the growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis) and the Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Stipiturus malachurus intermedius).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal timing of biodiversity offsetting for metapopulations

Southwell

Heard

McCarthy

2018

Ecological Applications

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Biodiversity offsetting schemes permit habitat destruction, provided that losses are compensated by gains elsewhere. While hundreds of offsetting schemes are used around the globe, the optimal timing of habitat creation in such projects is poorly understood. Here, we developed a spatially explicit metapopulation model for a single species subject to a habitat compensation scheme. Managers could compensate for destruction of a patch by creating a new patch either before, at the time of, or after patch loss. Delaying patch creation is intuitively detrimental to species persistence, but allowed managers to invest financial compensation, accrue interest, and create a larger patch at a later date. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we found the optimal timing of patch creation that maximizes the number of patches occupied at the end of a 50-yr habitat compensation scheme when a patch is destroyed after 10 yr. Two case studies were developed for Australian species subject to habitat loss but with very different traits: the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis) and the critically endangered Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Spititurus malachurus intermedius). Our results show that adding a patch either before or well after habitat destruction can be optimal, depending on the occupancy state of the metapopulation, the interest rate, the area of the destroyed patch and metapopulation parameters of the focal species. Generally, it was better to delay patch creation when the interest rate was high, when the species had a relatively high colonization rate, when the patch nearest the new patch was occupied, and when the destroyed patch was small. Our framework can be applied to single-species metapopulations subject to habitat loss, and demonstrates that considering the timing of habitat compensation could improve the effectiveness of offsetting schemes.

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“…; Staples, Taper & Dennis ; Heard et al . ) and establishment of invasive species (Gertzen, Leung & Yan ; Bradie, Chivers & Leung ; Seebens, Gastner & Blasius ). In many cases, making reliable probabilistic predictions is essential from a decision‐making perspective [but see Lawson et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Validation and calibration of probabilistic predictions in ecology

2014

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Summary1. Predictive models in ecology are important for guiding policy and management. However, they are necessarily abstractions of natural systems, making predictive validation imperative. Models, which make predictions about binary outcomes (e.g. Species distribution models, population viability analysis, disease/invasion models), are widespread in the ecological literature. When supporting probability-based management decisions, these predictions need to be assessed with respect to the degree to which predicted probabilities agree with future outcomes. Many predictive models are not validated using external data and are often only assessed in terms of their ability to discriminate between outcomes rather than the degree to which they predicted the correct probabilities. 2. We develop a novel Validation Metric Applied to Probabilistic Predictions (VMAPP), which provides a goodness-of-fit test of calibration for probabilistic prediction models using binary data (e.g. presences and absences in models of species distributions). We analyse the theoretic properties of this test and compare its performance against existing methods, and apply it to a published model in invasion biology, which forecasts the establishment probability of the zooplanktivorous spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus). We selected 102 additional sites to sample four years after the training data were collected and use this independently collected data to assess predictive reliability using VMAPP.3. Theoretic simulation analysis shows that VMAPP outperforms existing metrics (Cox's regression technique and Hosmer & Lemeshow's v 2 test) in terms of statistical power to identify model miscalibration. Further, we find that under realistic conditions where model parameters are estimated (and have associated uncertainty) that VMAPP is more robust, retaining the appropriate type-I error rates (5%) where previous metrics fail (≤17%). Application of VMAPP to a published invasion model using empirical validation data shows that in addition to having high discriminative power, the model's probabilistic predictions agree with the observed outcomes as measured by VMAPP. 4. We argue that quantifying ecological predictions as probabilities with associated uncertainty provides the most useful information to support management decisions. Ecological predictions, while uncertain, should still be rigorously validated. Identifying the circumstances in which our predictions deviate from observation can further inform the next generation of the model, bringing prediction and reality ever closer.

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A Bayesian model of metapopulation viability, with application to an endangered amphibian

Cited by 65 publications

References 53 publications

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Extinction risk in cloud forest fragments under climate change and habitat loss

Optimal timing of biodiversity offsetting for metapopulations

Validation and calibration of probabilistic predictions in ecology

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