Civil Conflict, Democratization, and Growth: Violent Democratization as Critical Juncture

Cervellati, Matteo; Sunde, Uwe

doi:10.1111/sjoe.12054

Cited by 17 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 40 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…Specifically, we distinguish between peaceful transitions, during which there is no or only little armed conflict, and violent transitions, which are accompanied by significant armed conflict. This distinction is motivated by theoretical predictions and empirical findings that civil conflict during the democratization process reveals persistent negative effects on subsequent institutional quality and economic growth (Cervellati and Sunde, 2014; Cervellati et al ., 2014a).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… See Cervellati et al (2014a) andCervellati and Sunde (2014) for a unified theory of different transition scenarios and their implications for subsequent development.2 This argument was made byLipset (1959, p. 83), who attributed it to De Tocqueville (1835).C 2019 The Authors. The Scandinavian Journal of Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Föreningen för utgivande av the SJE/The editors of The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Income Shocks, Inequality, and Democracy*

Kotschy

Sunde

2020

Scandinavian J Economics

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In this paper, motivated by contradictory evidence on the effect of income on democracy, we investigate the hypothesis that it is income shocks – major income fluctuations relative to the trend – rather than marginal year‐on‐year variation in income levels that lead to non‐trivial changes in the quality of political institutions. Empirical results provide support for this hypothesis, and show how income inequality plays a crucial role in the effects of economic shocks on democracy. In particular, negative income shocks reveal a positive effect on democracy in countries with high inequality, and vice versa.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Income Shocks, Inequality, and Democracy*

Kotschy

Sunde

2020

Scandinavian J Economics

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“…Also, on the other hand, the effect of democratization is argued to be weakened when accounting for the incidence of conflict (CONFL). Cervellati and Sunde (2012) claimed that the growth effect of democratization is heterogeneous and depends on the democratization scenario. Peaceful transitions to democracy have a significant positive effect on growth that is even larger than reported in the previous literature, whereas violent transitions have no or even negative growth effects.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Political Regime Types and Economic Development in Nigeria: Significance of Conflict and Corruption

Okunlola¹

2018

Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics

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This article investigates the short- and long-run effects of political regimes (POLREGs) on economic development in Nigeria between 1984 and 2015. It looks at the effects of the conflict (CONFL) and corruption (COR) on economic development indicators and examines the interactive effect of POLREGs and COR as well as CONFL on economic development. COR and CONFL seem to be more prevalent in Nigeria during democracy relative to the periods under dictatorship. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, it derived a number of robust conclusions. Democracy in the long run yields higher economic development when it is devoid of CONFL and COR, while autocracy hinders economic development. In the short run however, more autocracy fosters economic development in Nigeria while democracy hinders it. COR portends grave threat to the development of Nigeria’s economy as it reduces development in the long run. Effect of CONFL on economic development in Nigeria is unclear. These findings highlight the need to establish effective anti-graft agencies to fight COR to the barest minimum in Nigeria. They also highlight the need to employ CONFL resolution mechanisms in resolving CONFL issues in the democratization process of the country. JEL: D74, K420, P160, O1, Q550

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“…Nur‐tegin () finds that regime changes are subject to political turmoil that often reduce growth in the short term, but can lead to stronger growth in the long term especially if the level of democratization has increased. Cervellati and Sunde () show that peaceful transitions have a significant effect on growth compared to transitions that induce civil conflict. The relevance of these effects complements the present paper because regime change is often influenced by military conflict or occupation.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of Military Occupation on Growth

Vishwasrao¹,

Schneider²,

Chiang³

2018

Kyklos

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Summary A substantial literature exists on the effects of military expenditures on economic growth, yet no study has analyzed the effects of military occupation other than in anecdotal cases. This paper uses a panel of 214 countries from 1950 to 2013 to study how economic growth is impacted by different forms of military occupation. Transformative occupations aim to establish institutions to promote stability once the occupation ends, while subdual occupations are more malevolent in their objectives. Our results show that transformative occupations produce positive growth in occupied countries after the occupation period concludes. Separating these effects into the short run and long run, we find that while countries subject to a subdual occupation experience a short‐run increase in growth at the end of the occupation, countries with transformative occupation experience long‐run increases in growth. These findings are robust to the inclusion of traditional drivers of growth. Policy implications suggest that regional conflicts that are solved using military intervention may have lasting effects on growth as long as the intentions of the occupying force are transformative in nature.

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Civil Conflict, Democratization, and Growth: Violent Democratization as Critical Juncture

Cited by 17 publications

References 40 publications

Income Shocks, Inequality, and Democracy*

Income Shocks, Inequality, and Democracy*

Political Regime Types and Economic Development in Nigeria: Significance of Conflict and Corruption

The Effects of Military Occupation on Growth

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