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Formulation of the problem. Extreme-low temperatures are an adverse phenomenon for the country’s economy and human living conditions. It is important to have a climatological estimation of typical locations and probability of extreme-low temperatures caused by different synoptic processes, which ideally should be predicted in advance. The purpose of the article. The paper describes the typical synoptic processes that lead to extreme-low temperatures over the past 20 years (1997-2017) in middle latitudes in Eastern Europe. The probability of significant areas with extreme-low temperature and their typical localization during various synoptic processes was investigated. Methods. Definition of “extreme-low temperatures” refers to the temperatures below the 5th percentile of the surface actual temperature distribution in each grid point. To create the sample, anomalies of extreme-low air temperatures over significant areas (more than 20 percent of the sector) were chosen. To divide the synoptic processes into groups, a synoptic analysis was applied. Results. From the sample of 1997-2017, 75 episodes with large areas of extreme-low temperature were identified. The sample contains 13 episodes that cover more than 30% of the Eastern Europe and last from 2 to 11 days, and 12 episodes that have one day duration. Cases with anomalies occupy from 20 to 30% of the territory rarely lasts more than 2-3 days (11 episodes). There are five main groups of processes that lead to significant air temperature anomalies that cover a large area of the chosen domain. These five groups of situations include 75% of all days with large areas of extreme-low air temperature. The first group of processes: there is the movement of the cyclone from the Black Sea towards the Volga river basin region, with the anticyclone located in the northwest of Russia displacing towards the Baltic region or Scandinavia. In this case, temperature anomalies cover almost the entire eastern part of the selected sector. The second group of processes: a vast anticyclone, expanding from Western Siberia in the direction of Belarus (extreme-low temperatures most of time observed in the central part of the sector). The third group of processes: the movement of the “southern” cyclone from the Black Sea to the territory of Ukraine with subsequent displacement to the east (extreme-low temperatures most of time observed in the north-eastern part of the sector). The fourth group of processes: motionless anticyclone over the northeast of the Eastern European sector (high probability of extreme-low temperatures in the south-eastern part of the sector). The fifth group of processes: the northward trajectory of the “southern” cyclone to the territory of Ukraine while strengthening of the anticyclone over the Scandinavia. This one is similar to the first group of processes but differ by more western trajectories of cyclones, and hence different locations of extreme temperature anomalies (north-western part of the sector and eastern part of Ukraine). The remaining 25% of the days with large anomalies are mostly short-lived and observed during 1-2 days. Scientific novelty and practical significance. The created catalogue of processes will allow recognizing the potential extreme situations that might be useful for middle and long-range forecasting.
Formulation of the problem. Extreme-low temperatures are an adverse phenomenon for the country’s economy and human living conditions. It is important to have a climatological estimation of typical locations and probability of extreme-low temperatures caused by different synoptic processes, which ideally should be predicted in advance. The purpose of the article. The paper describes the typical synoptic processes that lead to extreme-low temperatures over the past 20 years (1997-2017) in middle latitudes in Eastern Europe. The probability of significant areas with extreme-low temperature and their typical localization during various synoptic processes was investigated. Methods. Definition of “extreme-low temperatures” refers to the temperatures below the 5th percentile of the surface actual temperature distribution in each grid point. To create the sample, anomalies of extreme-low air temperatures over significant areas (more than 20 percent of the sector) were chosen. To divide the synoptic processes into groups, a synoptic analysis was applied. Results. From the sample of 1997-2017, 75 episodes with large areas of extreme-low temperature were identified. The sample contains 13 episodes that cover more than 30% of the Eastern Europe and last from 2 to 11 days, and 12 episodes that have one day duration. Cases with anomalies occupy from 20 to 30% of the territory rarely lasts more than 2-3 days (11 episodes). There are five main groups of processes that lead to significant air temperature anomalies that cover a large area of the chosen domain. These five groups of situations include 75% of all days with large areas of extreme-low air temperature. The first group of processes: there is the movement of the cyclone from the Black Sea towards the Volga river basin region, with the anticyclone located in the northwest of Russia displacing towards the Baltic region or Scandinavia. In this case, temperature anomalies cover almost the entire eastern part of the selected sector. The second group of processes: a vast anticyclone, expanding from Western Siberia in the direction of Belarus (extreme-low temperatures most of time observed in the central part of the sector). The third group of processes: the movement of the “southern” cyclone from the Black Sea to the territory of Ukraine with subsequent displacement to the east (extreme-low temperatures most of time observed in the north-eastern part of the sector). The fourth group of processes: motionless anticyclone over the northeast of the Eastern European sector (high probability of extreme-low temperatures in the south-eastern part of the sector). The fifth group of processes: the northward trajectory of the “southern” cyclone to the territory of Ukraine while strengthening of the anticyclone over the Scandinavia. This one is similar to the first group of processes but differ by more western trajectories of cyclones, and hence different locations of extreme temperature anomalies (north-western part of the sector and eastern part of Ukraine). The remaining 25% of the days with large anomalies are mostly short-lived and observed during 1-2 days. Scientific novelty and practical significance. The created catalogue of processes will allow recognizing the potential extreme situations that might be useful for middle and long-range forecasting.
Formulation of the problem. The level of atmospheric air pollution in large cities is influenced by a number of factors, among which the most important are the emissions of pollutants into the air, the characteristics of the sources of admixtures, the landscape features, synoptic and meteorological conditions (Vystavnaya, Zubkovych 2014). The influence of the latter is associated with the scattering, washing out and transformation of harmful substances in the atmosphere, as well as the significant variability of their concentrations in space and time. The characteristics of the wind regime (wind direction and velocity), temperature inversions, and formation of low-troposphere currents are among the meteorological factors that most influence the concentrations of contaminants in the layer of atmosphere near the surface (Ivus 2017), (Agayar 2018) Shevchenko 2020). The purpose of the article is to develop and improve methods of forecasting meteorological conditions of atmospheric pollution over industrial areas of Odesa, as well as characterize the variability of meteorological values over the Northwest Black Sea. Methods. the data of four-time observations (01, 07, 13, 19 hours) for the main pollutants on the network of eight stationary posts for the February, April, July and October of 2011 are used as the initial materials. The catalog of typical synoptic processes over the territory of Ukraine for the period of 2011-2015 is compiled at the Department of Meteorology and Climatology of the OSENU. To clarify specific synoptic situations, synoptic maps of all levels (ground-level, AT-925, AT-850, AT-700 and AT-500) from the archive of the ARMSin (‘automatic forecaster workstation’- program for processing synoptic maps that is applied in Ukraine. Results. 1. CO concentrations in the city of Odesa increase with distance from the coastal strip in to the depth of land with maximum values in places with high traffic load, regardless of the season; 2. Absence of industrial facilities and meteorological conditions contribute to the low level of air pollution around post N 8. Exceedance of the maximum allowable concentrations of carbon monoxide is observed in 6 out of 8 observation posts; 3. Favorable conditions for the accumulation of admixtures are formed in peripheral processes with low-gradient pressure fields, in front parts of cyclones and in low-motion and small cyclones with the same air mass; 4. Temperature inversions almost always accompanied the accumulation of harmful admixtures in the ground layer of air above Odesa. Scientific novelty and practical significance. In this article we have analyzed influence of meteorological conditions on the level of atmospheric air pollution in Odesa region. For these purposes the more nuanced-based method of forecasting was adapted. We have demonstrated that its use has efficiency at the present time for improvement of operative prognostic units work for the Northwest Black Sea region. Such conclusions may be identified as a result of empirical findings.
Rapid and significant changes in water levels can pose a danger to all marine vehicles, they can also affect coastal structures, accelerate coastal erosion processes and affect coastal ecosystems. Drops in the level of the Black Sea in the Odesa region occur mainly with northwesterly and westerly winds with an intensity 4-18 m/s in the cold half of the year, when a cyclonic vortex or an elongated baric basin formed over the Black Sea. At the same time, the interaction of the cyclone with the area of high pressure created a storm zone, where the northwest wind intensified. The storm surges were formed in the south and southeast direction of the wind at a speed of 8-18 m/s under the influence of a zone of large atmospheric pressure gradients between the trough over Eastern and Central Europe and the ridge of high pressure to the east of Ukraine.
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